A Bold Prediction on Next-gen X3

[Rubber Ducky]

The assumption is that the plant construction in Greer will not be limiting and that the technology/testing can move quickly. With those two things being true, I think we will see next-gen X3 much sooner than expected.

Reason: price of gas. SUVs (& SAVs) are getting unpopular because the added weight equates to reduced mileage on very pricey fuel. Predict that X5 and X6 sales will suffer. But that does not bear on the X3. Even with the N54 twin-turbo mill, it's a two-ton minus machine that should yield about same mileage as an E93 335i or a 535i. Thus buyers who want an SAV and a BMW will be moving down-market to the X3.

If I can figure that out, the second-best marketers on the planet (behind Apple) surely have that cranked into their production skeds. Voila: pull X3 ahead as fast as production and technology-readiness allow. If you can't sell X5s and X6s, sell X3s. The current model is at its pull date - accelerate the new model.

You heard it here first...

[Andrew*Debbie]

BMW has a 7 year contract with Magna to build the X3. They will not be moving the X3 to SC until that contract expires.


I was just at the plant last week. They are currently running 2 shifts. Plant is operating 20 hours a day 5 or 6 days a week. Current plant does not have capacity to build more cars.

The new larger (huge) stacker is well under construction.

Construction for the X3 body shop has barely begun. They have cleared the trees and started grading. It will be awhile.

[x3man]

BMW has a 7 year contract with Magna to build the X3. They will not be moving the X3 to SC until that contract expires.


I was just at the plant last week. They are currently running 2 shifts. Plant is operating 20 hours a day 5 or 6 days a week. Current plant does not have capacity to build more cars.

The new larger (huge) stacker is well under construction.

Construction for the X3 body shop has barely begun. They have cleared the trees and started grading. It will be awhile.

Thank God!!! The idea of SC delivery is depressing compared to the Bavarian experience...

[x3man]

BMW needs to do a hybrid X3. Diesel is approaching $5/gallon in the US. Premium is about $4/gal now.

[X3 Skier]

Thank God!!! The idea of SC delivery is depressing compared to the Bavarian experience...

PCD is good but ED is better. I hope to get an X1 via ED if they build them in Austria. :thumbup:

Cheers

[Rubber Ducky]

BMW has a 7 year contract with Magna to build the X3. They will not be moving the X3 to SC until that contract expires.


I was just at the plant last week. They are currently running 2 shifts. Plant is operating 20 hours a day 5 or 6 days a week. Current plant does not have capacity to build more cars.

The new larger (huge) stacker is well under construction.

Construction for the X3 body shop has barely begun. They have cleared the trees and started grading. It will be awhile.
Yeah. The only thing that could change all this (including speedup of Greer construction and an overhaul of the Magna relationship) is a compelling need to make money or not lose it because of major market moves.

The price of gas is already causing major market moves (GM: $3B loss; Ford: new vehicle lineup; Chrysler: circling the bowl; everybody: hybrid vehicles; etc.).

BMW ain't no slouch and unless there's a law of physics involved to keep it from happening ... I stand by my prediction.

[Faucker]

BMW needs to do a hybrid X3. Diesel is approaching $5/gallon in the US. Premium is about $4/gal now.


You're right x3man, they need a hybrid X3. The X3 would be perfect as a hybrid. Not just for the fuel savings but its the only cost effective alternative for automakers. The wave is coming.

[kjboyd]

do keep in mind that we are not BMW's only market. and $4 for gas? why would they care when they pay $8 in europe. and they have plenty of frugal X3s and X5s already in the line up, just not here.

Yeah. The only thing that could change all this (including speedup of Greer construction and an overhaul of the Magna relationship) is a compelling need to make money or not lose it because of major market moves.

The price of gas is already causing major market moves (GM: $3B loss; Ford: new vehicle lineup; Chrysler: circling the bowl; everybody: hybrid vehicles; etc.).

BMW ain't no slouch and unless there's a law of physics involved to keep it from happening ... I stand by my prediction.

[Andrew*Debbie]

do keep in mind that we are not BMW's only market. and $4 for gas? why would they care when they pay $8 in europe. and they have plenty of frugal X3s and X5s already in the line up, just not here.

+1

The plant here is simply not ready to build the X3. There is no body shop. Yet. They would also have to break the contract with Magna Styer and line up Domestic suppliers for all sorts of small and not so small parts.

Many of the parts on the Z4, X5 and X6 are built by contractors at nearby plants. BMW runs the assembly line with about 4 hours worth of spare parts on hand. The outside contractors receive parts orders for cars a few hours before they are built. -- Some items like seats are built just in time. There is a constant flow of semi's full of car parts into the plant.



BMW's mid-term plan is to sell more X3s in markets outside the US. They have been encouraging American dealers to push the 3 series wagon.



BMW could bring the X3 diesels to the US market. I've seen no indication they will be doing this for MY 2009.

[NetSpySD]

If you drive an X6, I don't think you would still want an X3. It is amazing.:thumbup:

I expect the new X3 to top out close to $60k with all the new options.

[pilotman]

+1

The plant here is simply not ready to build the X3. There is no body shop. Yet. They would also have to break the contract with Magna Styer and line up Domestic suppliers for all sorts of small and not so small parts.

Many of the parts on the Z4, X5 and X6 are built by contractors at nearby plants. BMW runs the assembly line with about 4 hours worth of spare parts on hand. The outside contractors receive parts orders for cars a few hours before they are built. -- Some items like seats are built just in time. There is a constant flow of semi's full of car parts into the plant.



BMW's mid-term plan is to sell more X3s in markets outside the US. They have been encouraging American dealers to push the 3 series wagon.



BMW could bring the X3 diesels to the US market. I've seen no indication they will be doing this for MY 2009.

Really? The wagon always has terrible money factor rates and residuals, and they rarely have them at dealers, and every dealer I have dealt with over the years never made any effort to sell wagons, they always steer me away from them because they don't have them in dealer stock, or because they don't want a lease turn in because they'll never get rid of it as a used car

[UncleJ]

Pilot that attitude may be changing as the wagon/squareback seems to be more popular now than it was in the recent past. Perhaps it is because of better fuel economy than an SAV/SUV type, yet still having a decent ability to carry "stuff". There are a number of very excellent and attractive small wagons/squarebacks out there now and the 3 and 5 series are among the best IMHO.

[Andrew*Debbie]

Really? The wagon always has terrible money factor rates and residuals, and they rarely have them at dealers,

Yup. But you can get a 3.9%APR finance offer on the wagon.

MSRP on an X3 3.0si with Premium, Sport, metallic paint and steptronic is $43,675.

MSRP on a 328i wagon with Premium, Sport, metallic paint and Steptronic is $41,675.


BMW NA wants dealers to be aware of this and start pushing the wagons or at least have a few in stock. A lot of people don't even know that BMW makes them.




I'm comparing a RWD wagon to an AWD X3. -- Not exactly fair, but you can't get a RWD X3.

[X3 Skier]

I'm comparing a RWD wagon to an AWD X3. -- Not exactly fair, but you can't get a RWD X3.

But for apples to apples, you can get a 328xi AWD Metallic Paint, Premium Sport with Steptronic for $43175 versus your $43675 for the X3. You pays your money and you takes your choice.

Cheers

[Mystic1]

If you drive an X6, I don't think you would still want an X3. It is amazing.:thumbup:

I expect the new X3 to top out close to $60k with all the new options.

An X6 and X3 aren't really comparable. And if the X3 does top out near $60K, they won't be selling many since you could get into an X5 cheaper than that.

[kjboyd]

you can get into an X5 for $45.

[Mystic1]

you can get into an X5 for $45.

My point exactly. BMW would just be killing the sales of the X3 if they got much higher than that.

[Brandon J.]

What is to be said for the sports handling factor between a 328xiT and the X3? If price is relatively equal and differences in fuel consumption are negligable, wouldn't an enthusiast choose the X3 for the sports suspension included in the SP every time? Seems like a reasonable consideration to me.

[Andrew*Debbie]

What is to be said for the sports handling factor between a 328xiT and the X3? If price is relatively equal and differences in fuel consumption are negligable, wouldn't an enthusiast choose the X3 for the sports suspension included in the SP every time? Seems like a reasonable consideration to me.


If you are comparing a RWD 328iT to an AWD X3 3.0i they are quite different.

An X3 weighs in at 4012lbs. The 328iT is much lighter at 3527lbs. Even though the X3 gets the better more powerful version of the N52 motor, the 328iT is the faster car.


2008 EPA numbers:

X3 is 16/23
328iT is 17/27

(Those are the MT numbers.)


Does anyone know if BMW plans to bring the 335dT to the US? That would be an X3 3.0si killer.

[NetSpySD]

An X6 and X3 aren't really comparable. And if the X3 does top out near $60K, they won't be selling many since you could get into an X5 cheaper than that.

You are comparing a loaded X3 to a stripped X5.

New X3 - $40k-$60k
X5 - $45k-$80k
X6- $57k - $80k (but more standard features than an X5)

You don't have to pay $60k for an X3, you can stripped it down. All I am saying is the car will be updated from the 1990's interior and have all the options that you see in the 3/5/6/X5/6 series.


I am expecting a few engine choices with the new X3 as well. I think the average one will sell for well over $50k, especially with the dollar drop. The current model on the lots average $40k-$46k.

I don't think these pricing levels will hurt X3 sales. The 1 series is not hurting 3 series sales. There are folks who like small SUV's. Especially if the gas mileage is better.

[archrenov8]

Part of the reason why they are shifting production over here in the states is to get around fluctuating currencies. If they make the car in the country they are selling it in, currency fluctuations do not matter as much.

[Brandon J.]

I was actually referring to the 328xiT, the version with AWD. I re-read my post to make sure I didn't screw it up. I have driven the 328i sedan (and did make note of the its pep) but never the X3 or the 328i touring for that matter. I was just throwing out my thoughts to the X3 experts.

[iamthewalrus]

If you drive an X6, I don't think you would still want an X3. It is amazing.:thumbup:


Does the X6 come with a manual transmission in the US? If not, then BMW can keep it. It really is a deal breaker for some of us... ;)

-James
2006 BMW X3 3.0i (manual, sport, premium, xenons, premium stereo, PDC)

[bmwadam]

Does the X6 come with a manual transmission in the US? If not, then BMW can keep it. It really is a deal breaker for some of us... ;)

-James
2006 BMW X3 3.0i (manual, sport, premium, xenons, premium stereo, PDC)


+1! If they do not offer the X6 with a manual gearbox, then I will not buy it.

I will never own another automatic car. If people quit making them, then I will figure out how to convert a car to a manual, barring that I will stick with older cars. Or maybe I will just buy myself an old beamer (they get the best fuel economy anyway, and since gas prices are killing trucks and suvs they are becoming much safer to ride). Gotta love the R series!