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-   -   Will December Programs Get Better? (http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=661136)

Alpine300ZHP 11-29-2012 07:54 AM

Will December Programs Get Better?
 
So guys/gals..what do you think? I am currently fence sitting for an x5M or x5 5.0 M performance. A gut feeling tells me BMW may do a little something extra to push sales in December. What do you guys think? I am curious to see what the sponsors think as well.

cchrisv 11-29-2012 10:34 AM

Historically the programs has stayed the same from November to December. However, there could be minor revisions that you wont know about until they happen. For example last year they added a 28 month lease for 3 series sedans but everything else stayed the same.

Remember you can lock in your incentives for 60 days after the program ends. The current programs ends January 3rd. Therefore, if the programs improve you can take advantage. If not, then you have current incentives locked.

Alpine300ZHP 11-29-2012 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cchrisv (Post 7221103)
Historically the programs has stayed the same from November to December. However, there could be minor revisions that you wont know about until they happen. For example last year they added a 28 month lease for 3 series sedans but everything else stayed the same.

Remember you can lock in your incentives for 60 days after the program ends. The current programs ends January 3rd. Therefore, if the programs improve you can take advantage. If not, then you have current incentives locked.

I hear you. Part of me wonders if I may do better to wait until summer when the new x5 body is about to drop. BMW usually does end of model incentives that are very good (at the expense of lease rates and residuals). Even if the rates and residuals are bad I can always do a finance. I am pretty set on the x5M, but feel like the deals may get better if I wait until late spring or early summer. BTW...nice that you are getting a M3 and with a proper 6MT! We thought about it, but wife wants an SUV hence the desire for the x5M. You will love the M3...I loved mine and will get another one day.

Justin@NCBMW 11-29-2012 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP (Post 7220774)
So guys/gals..what do you think? I am currently fence sitting for an x5M or x5 5.0 M performance. A gut feeling tells me BMW may do a little something extra to push sales in December. What do you guys think? I am curious to see what the sponsors think as well.

If there are enhancements i doubt it will be on the X1/5/6 model line as those cars are moving well... they may get more aggressive on the F30s and F10s ...lock Nov and wait...:thumbup:

chrischeung 11-29-2012 12:20 PM

3 things I like to keep in mind:

1. There will always be a better deal down the road
2. There will always be a better car down the road
3. Are you driving the car or the deal?

Basically, only do a deal if you need a car now.

mywave 11-29-2012 12:35 PM

So lock today or tomorrow, but don't sign until Saturday the 1st?

cchrisv 11-29-2012 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin@NCBMW (Post 7221182)
If there are enhancements i doubt it will be on the X1/5/6 model line as those cars are moving well... they may get more aggressive on the F30s and F10s ...lock Nov and wait...:thumbup:

Justin, since I suspect you will get flooded with emails again on Monday. Will you post any changes that happen next week?

Alpine300ZHP 11-30-2012 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrischeung (Post 7221355)
3 things I like to keep in mind:

1. There will always be a better deal down the road
2. There will always be a better car down the road
3. Are you driving the car or the deal?

Basically, only do a deal if you need a car now.

My line of thinking exactly. Since the car is a want and not a need I will probably keep sitting on the fence.

mrjoed2 11-30-2012 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP (Post 7222790)
My line of thinking exactly. Since the car is a want and not a need I will probably keep sitting on the fence.


+1. Also reading European market keeps getting worse & worse. BMW is going to look to the USA market as more and more important to move their cars. Spring is going to bring better deals IMO.

Alpine300ZHP 11-30-2012 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrjoed2 (Post 7223631)
+1. Also reading European market keeps getting worse & worse. BMW is going to look to the USA market as more and more important to move their cars. Spring is going to bring better deals IMO.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I have been quietly telling myself that this is what will happen and that deals will get better over the next few months. I am even more convinced of this because the E70 is getting near end of production. Time will tell if we are correct.

chrischeung 11-30-2012 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP (Post 7223779)
You took the words right out of my mouth. I have been quietly telling myself that this is what will happen and that deals will get better over the next few months.

You should also consider the other tool in BMW's chest - which is to reduce production. Incentives and shifting supply to other countries help short term market sales, usually to clear inventory and capacity, while longer term remedies involve production cuts. In the depths of the financial crisis of 2008, BMW didn't resort to firesale pricing, the incentives weren't much different from those available now from memory, but did idle factories and cut shifts.

Personally, I don't think we'll see much different from what we see now, generally speaking, from a pricing perspective. Europe's a basket case, Asia will likely grow, and the USA will putter along. Nothing as bad as 2008 when the whole world was in freefall - rising unemployment, dropping asset prices, large bankruptcies etc. There'll be good individual deals, but I'd be surprised if things were generally better than they are now. BMW has traditionally kept its best lease deals for Nov-Apr.

My advice still stands - if you don't need a car now, still don't get it. Any savings you get now will most likely be wiped out by a few months of unnecessary payments.

akaMomo 11-30-2012 04:15 PM

Is is one of the more subtle-at-first advantages to ordering a car - and waiting for that delivery. While I want my car it is comforting to have a great locked deal that - who knows - might improve before I get the keys. The holiday cash was enough to tip me close enough to getting a 335i this time around when I started by ordering at 328i.

I have my fingers crossed that even though the wisdom is that November and December don't change usually that they just might improve. BMW is selling record numbers of cars right now and it seems things like setting volume records matter. Maybe there will be a little extra push to close out 2012 off the charts.

I guess we'll see soon enough.

mrjoed2 11-30-2012 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrischeung (Post 7223798)
You should also consider the other tool in BMW's chest - which is to reduce production. Incentives and shifting supply to other countries help short term market sales, usually to clear inventory and capacity, while longer term remedies involve production cuts. In the depths of the financial crisis of 2008, BMW didn't resort to firesale pricing, the incentives weren't much different from those available now from memory, but did idle factories and cut shifts.

Personally, I don't think we'll see much different from what we see now, generally speaking, from a pricing perspective. Europe's a basket case, Asia will likely grow, and the USA will putter along. Nothing as bad as 2008 when the whole world was in freefall - rising unemployment, dropping asset prices, large bankruptcies etc. There'll be good individual deals, but I'd be surprised if things were generally better than they are now. BMW has traditionally kept its best lease deals for Nov-Apr.

My advice still stands - if you don't need a car now, still don't get it. Any savings you get now will most likely be wiped out by a few months of unnecessary payments.

Absolutely good advice. I would add however that the sales race between MB & BMW is another factor. BMW is currently behind and it's a very important issue for both companies. I think BMW may want to take a smaller profit on each car rather than none at all by cutting production or idling factories. Keep in mind those tools you mention are painful ones, they have tough German unions in these companies, big complex supplier contracts, as well as huge fixed costs that continue regardless if they churn out vehicles or not.

chrischeung 11-30-2012 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrjoed2 (Post 7224078)
BMW is currently behind and it's a very important issue for both companies.

How is that? BMW won last year, and did it really help them this year? Other than bragging rights, what is the tangible value of being No. 1?

Last year, I honestly thought it would make a difference. Now, I'm not convinced - Benz is doing well in 2012 with a lineup of cars which is generally older than BMW's.

Ace535i 12-01-2012 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP (Post 7222790)
My line of thinking exactly. Since the car is a want and not a need I will probably keep sitting on the fence.

You've been watching too much Suze Orman! :)

Ace535i 12-01-2012 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrjoed2 (Post 7223631)
+1. Also reading European market keeps getting worse & worse. BMW is going to look to the USA market as more and more important to move their cars. Spring is going to bring better deals IMO.

Ludwig Willisch has already made such a statement recently.

deenx 12-01-2012 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace535i (Post 7224546)
Ludwig Willisch has already made such a statement recently.

Maybe Mr. Willisch could personally call the two BMW dealers I tried to deal with this week and remind them of this.

Arciga18 12-01-2012 06:37 AM

so are the december programs out yet?

Alpine300ZHP 12-01-2012 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrjoed2 (Post 7224078)
Absolutely good advice. I would add however that the sales race between MB & BMW is another factor. BMW is currently behind and it's a very important issue for both companies. I think BMW may want to take a smaller profit on each car rather than none at all by cutting production or idling factories. Keep in mind those tools you mention are painful ones, they have tough German unions in these companies, big complex supplier contracts, as well as huge fixed costs that continue regardless if they churn out vehicles or not.

This is what I think, but as previously stated time will tell.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrischeung (Post 7224199)
How is that? BMW won last year, and did it really help them this year? Other than bragging rights, what is the tangible value of being No. 1?

Last year, I honestly thought it would make a difference. Now, I'm not convinced - Benz is doing well in 2012 with a lineup of cars which is generally older than BMW's.

If BMW did not care about being number one why did they make suce a huge deal about it when they beat out MBZ. Trust me that being number one is a big deal and both brands have and will buy sales to accomplish that goal. My opinion has nothing to do with the fact that I want a specific car. Reality is that additional incentives will make little difference to the bottom line on the 100k car I want. I just want to get the best deal I can or wait for the new bodystyle. Part of me is on the fence because I know the E70 is 6 months away from being replaced.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace535i (Post 7224543)
You've been watching too much Suze Orman! :)

:rofl: I hate her and think her advice should be limited to high school dropouts who do not know that one plus one equals two. Trust me...like ChrisCheung I have blown way too much money on BMW's over the years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace535i (Post 7224546)
Ludwig Willisch has already made such a statement recently.

He has and I suspect that deals will remain good even if they don't get better.

mrjoed2 12-01-2012 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrischeung (Post 7224199)
How is that? BMW won last year, and did it really help them this year? Other than bragging rights, what is the tangible value of being No. 1?

Last year, I honestly thought it would make a difference. Now, I'm not convinced - Benz is doing well in 2012 with a lineup of cars which is generally older than BMW's.

Just google BMW vs MB sales. Benz is ahead as of Oct 2012. It is a big deal to BMW. Bragging rights is a victory in itself. I still contend better incentives/less profit is preferable to no profit if there is no sale.

chrischeung 12-01-2012 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP (Post 7224706)
If BMW did not care about being number one why did they make suce a huge deal about it when they beat out MBZ. Trust me that being number one is a big deal and both brands have and will buy sales to accomplish that goal.

Apart from that hoopla, have you heard anything about it since? And it doesn't seem like they promoted it. It didn't help with sales this year, from their loss of the lead. And the incentives aren't as good as last year. So where is the evidence that they STILL think it is a big thing, instead of say margins and profitability? Perhaps they're just managing inventory?

Where are the super deals that we would expect right now? From BMW - or Benz - Audi - or Lexus? I'm not saying you aren't correct - rather if you were right, wouldn't we expect to see actions that support that? Where's the evidence?

Justin@NCBMW 12-01-2012 11:12 AM

For those on the fence...FS released their programs this morning for Dec which is good till 01/02/13 - drum roll plz...no changes

Happy shopping

djsaad1 12-01-2012 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrjoed2 (Post 7224738)
Just google BMW vs MB sales. Benz is ahead as of Oct 2012. It is a big deal to BMW. Bragging rights is a victory in itself. I still contend better incentives/less profit is preferable to no profit if there is no sale.

I do think you should wait since you don't need the car right now, but I also think you are at a disadvantage since the model you want is selling well right now and priced high. I don't think BMW is going to try to reduce the prices of their higher end cars to bring in more sales, my guess would be that they would try to add more incentives to the lower priced cars since they can target more people that way.

mrjoed2 12-01-2012 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djsaad1 (Post 7225128)
I do think you should wait since you don't need the car right now, but I also think you are at a disadvantage since the model you want is selling well right now and priced high. I don't think BMW is going to try to reduce the prices of their higher end cars to bring in more sales, my guess would be that they would try to add more incentives to the lower priced cars since they can target more people that way.

Agreed - but I am very confident BMW will offer the option credits discount again in the spring, and they are one of the few incentives that can be combined with USAA. And they offered the credits on the 6 series last year when it was brand new model, so feel they will again this year. Also waiting on the new Idrive which is scheduled for March builds - so this may work out.

Greg@Pacific BMW 12-01-2012 10:40 PM

Bottom line guys... Lots of supply.... We all have objectives set by bmwna/factory for our last quarter.. So now is the time... Close or lock your deals by end of dec. I'm trying to move a lot of cars now... The best deals are vehicles on the ground.. Not necessarily orders....please keep that in mind.... Excessive supply on most vehicles now.. Make your deals now.....FYI and a note about m3's if you want one try and get a allocation now... Bmw is not providing any more than their original yearly forecast... I have a queue of people who want them and it is very hard to get extra allocation or production numbers. I have had to call all over the country to try and get some ..I.e. I get a m3 give up a x1,x5 etc on trade.So whoever your CA may be start making your moves before there are no more cars.


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