12-03-2012, 10:52 PM
Location: Sierra foothills, California USA
Join Date: Jul 2009
Mein Auto: '12 X5 35d/E39M5/996TTX50
Of course this is all guesstimates, but I proposed it as a framework that works for really any car- the cost basis for all buyers into the market originally is key. The diesels had the ECO that everyone was getting, so you apply that...other cars will have a different calculus. But it is really the shared starting point for all buyers and sellers.
On the mileage, I use $1 per mile for the first 5k, then 75 cents for the next 5k, then 50cents or so...roughly. I'd use a higher per mile number for a 997TT, and a smaller number for a nissan pathfinder.
Given that the CPO=Gold Plan, the 'value' to you should be close to what a gold plan costs you...BUT it doesnt cost the dealer that much. 2500-3k seems a good deal. I mean if you bought the car and turned around to buy that plan it will cost what it costs. And the new tires thing is sometimes true, but sometimes the poor lease holder got nailed for new tires when he returned the lease, so hard to say it really was a dealer costs. Do keep in mind that the CPO probably costs the dealer $2k to BMWNA for the warranty... if the dealer is competing with a GOld plan at 3500, they will simply NOT enroll a car into a CPO that needs 2000 worth of refurbishing. Indeed they tend to take creampuffs, toss a detail on it, maybe the lessee pays for tires, and they make the extra 1-2k profit off the CPO.
As others have opined, finding 11,12 diesels at reasonable prices is a challenge. Dealers know that people will be out there, unable to negotiate effectively off MSRP for a new car and will fall for the false economy...and the rarity of diesels. The REAL trick is to find an owner that needs to get out of their car...
As a reference point, carmax gave Mike 47k for his 11k mile 2012... Original 'deal' price was about 52500... using my numbers youd subtract 5k and ~4k. So 43500. Clearly they were offering more. So keep this in mind and dont be inflexible if you really must buy used. FYI, carmax is asking $51k, "no haggle"
Finally, using the above example- if that car was 52,500 out the door new, WHY bother saving only $1500 with 11k miles? If it was CPOd (and carmax is NOT cpoing it) then the 'value' $4500 (3k+1500)... When you break down the carmax deal, 1500 saving to buy a used car.
So here is the conundrum- on the one hand, there is what you (we) THINK it is worth, based on original cost, use, depreciation...and then there is what people are paying or dealers are charging...
I guess what i am saying is that the market for used diesels is distorted by supply and demand making them a poor buy.
Rambling, I know...
Keep it as simple as possible...but no simpler.