I'll add one more idea to this discussion about this (and any) insurance.
The people selling the policies are in a position to know the real risk much better than any of us. They have the actual data. Given that data on claim patterns, they price the policies, and the price them so that they still make money.
Unless you have a solid reason to believe that your case is likely to be different from their general experience, then you are betting against a card counter.
Not that you cant win, but its bad poker if you don't have a better counting system... which most of us don't.