It comes down to Net Present Value: What's the discounted value of $2-3K / year for the next 10 years vs. a $45K hit today? At a 3% discount rate, $2,500/year for ten years is only $22K in today's dollars. How much is driving a new car worth to you?
The other issue is the lack of a manual transmission on the current X3. If you're determined to get a manual SUV, then you're leaving BMW. BMW no longer offers a manual-transmission, all-wheel-drive vehicle in the USA.