I'm no expert as this is my first time ordering, but I think it will be a nail bitter. Mine finished production on the 17th and according the BMW customer service it wasn't at the port awaiting a vessel till the 24th. Even if it got there a couple days before on the 22nd it missed the "Queen Sapphire." I'm assuming they also load the vessel the day it arrives as opposed to the morning of departure.
On the plus side if it doesn't make the "Manon" you'll probably be on the "Don Juan" departing on 2/13. There are probably other people with more knowledge of this, but best of luck to you.
2013 535xi Carbon Black on Cinnamon Brown w/ Anthracite Wood, M-Sport, Cold Weather, Premium, Drivers Assistance, Tech, Sport Auto Trans., Multi-Contour Seats, Premium Hifi (Ordered 12/22, Finished Production 1/16, Took Delivery 2/18)
2004 E60 545i Silver Grey on Black, 6-Spd, Sport, Cold Weather, L7, Comfort Seats, Rear Heated Seats, 30% tint all around (Sold)