2013 X5 Diesel: What will the true story be? VOTE

OK, we've been hearing the 2012 Diesel stops production in July.

And the 2013 Diesel will be delayed until December.

Money where you mouth is- VOTE in the poll.

And add any rationalizations in a post...

Facts:

The diesel for MY 2010, 2011 and 2012 came out in Sept/Oct of the prior year- each year

BMW is runng MAJOR TV campaigns for the X5 Diesel, promoting the $4500 ECO credit

Sponsors/Dealers are already reporting tightening inventory and price 'firming'

It is 5 months from July to December....

I would be shocked as hell if there were ANY changes whatsoever to the MY 2013 Diesel.
BMW will not be stopping production till December nor make any changes for the following:

1. I think common sense dictates , no changes until the 2014 redesign, I would expect
at the minimum at that point the 8 speed trans and the N 57 engine

2. Would BMW have the balls to introduce the redesign on the MY 2013 diesel first,
Wouldn't that be a shocker ???

Anyway no changes and BMW will continue offering incentives for the remainder of the
MY 2013 Diesel run.

I'm thinking an 8 speed tranny starting in late October. It is already in Europe, so this shouldn't take much effort. Could add another engine, but I'd be more surprised. Anything more than that would be a shocker. BMW also doesnt seem sure about their commitment to diesel in NA, so they might not even know yet. The strong results in June could give help form a better opinion though.

Imho it's all just a buzz to push the sales. If diesels were moving well, there wouldn't be TV ads.

I think they add the 8-speed, pick up 1-2 rated MPG to help boost sales of the older bodystyle while us oil burners wait the normal 6+ months to get the redesigned 2014. I can't imagine the marketing guys would be excited to have the 2013MY diesel come out in Oct-Dec 2012 and then try to push it when everyone knows the gas redesign will be out in early-mid 2013.

Just my thoughts.

Jay

Originally Posted by Lance Alot

I'm thinking an 8 speed tranny starting in late October. It is already in Europe, so this shouldn't take much effort. Could add another engine, but I'd be more surprised. Anything more than that would be a shocker. BMW also doesnt seem sure about their commitment to diesel in NA, so they might not even know yet. The strong results in June could give help form a better opinion though.

Originally Posted by jashearer

I think they add the 8-speed, pick up 1-2 rated MPG to help boost sales of the older bodystyle while us oil burners wait the normal 6+ months to get the redesigned 2014. I can't imagine the marketing guys would be excited to have the 2013MY diesel come out in Oct-Dec 2012 and then try to push it when everyone knows the gas redesign will be out in early-mid 2013.

Just my thoughts.

Jay

The 8 speed isn't going to happen because the M57/8 speed doesn't exist anywhere. EU has gone to the more powerful updated N57. The N57/8 speed does exist. And I don't think that the N57 is coming this late into the E70's cycle. If anything, it would be smart of them to wait until the next gen.

Same thing happened last year. '12 was delayed by a couple months, while petrol models were sold in April-May.

It would be good of them to bring out the N57/8 speed combo in the next gen X5 and tout how their diesel has 300hp/425 torque, while getting high 20s MPG.

Originally Posted by AutoUnion

The 8 speed isn't going to happen because the M57/8 speed doesn't exist anywhere. EU has gone to the more powerful updated N57.

I'm not sure I follow this. Did the block get revised? Is it impossible to bolt the 8 sp to the M57? If not how would this be a huge obstacle?

The M is clearly less powerful so shouldn't be an issue of power holding, and I would think configuring shift points would be fairly easy, as its an adaptive learning transmission (at least the 6 speed is so I assume the 8 speed is as well).

Are you assuming gas/diesel MY14 will all come out at the same time? If so, then I agree no changes to the MY13d.

Deep down I hope for no changes that would make my MY12 less desirable then a MY13 when the time comes to sell/trade it

Jay

Originally Posted by jashearer

The M is clearly less powerful so shouldn't be an issue of power holding, and I would think configuring shift points would be fairly easy, as its an adaptive learning transmission (at least the 6 speed is so I assume the 8 speed is as well).

Engineers still have to program and test out the shift maps. The adaptive nature of the transmission is in deciding which of the maps to use. On the ZF 6AT which I have a white paper for, there are four shift maps. Two each for D, and another two for DS. Those all have to be programmed by human beings, as do the algorithms that decide which of the maps it should be using based on driver inputs (throttle position, steering angle, yaw/g sensor, etc). It's adaptive yes, but the transmission itself doesn't posses artificial intelligence to the point that it will just figure things out on its own. My previous car had 5 forward gears and a single shift map that made no sense whatsoever and I hated it, and there was nothing I could do about it. Part of the premium price of a BMW is that you get 6/8/whatever gears and have four different shift maps that the transmission can be using or full manual mode, which engineers spend a lot of extra man-months programming and tweaking vs a regular car with fewer gears and a single map. Anyways it's hardly easy, and the more gears you have the more of an effort it will be.

Originally Posted by SteVTEC

Engineers still have to program and test out the shift maps. The adaptive nature of the transmission is in deciding which of the maps to use. On the ZF 6AT which I have a white paper for, there are four shift maps. Two each for D, and another two for DS. Those all have to be programmed by human beings, as do the algorithms that decide which of the maps it should be using based on driver inputs (throttle position, steering angle, yaw/g sensor, etc). It's adaptive yes, but the transmission itself doesn't posses artificial intelligence to the point that it will just figure things out on its own. My previous car had 5 forward gears and a single shift map that made no sense whatsoever and I hated it, and there was nothing I could do about it. Part of the premium price of a BMW is that you get 6/8/whatever gears and have four different shift maps that the transmission can be using or full manual mode, which engineers spend a lot of extra man-months programming and tweaking vs a regular car with fewer gears and a single map. Anyways it's hardly easy, and the more gears you have the more of an effort it will be.

I agree, its definitely not a no effort ordeal, but if mechanically it works, then the biggest hurdle is passed. The cost of people time is much cheaper then tooling/capital any day.

How different is the M57 from the N57 in performance characteristics? Surely they aren't starting from scratch... I be surprised if it took much tweaking at all, to make it "work".

Jay

I don't predict anything major will change for MY 2013 X5 diesels and nor will it be delayed until Dec. Production will continue until the change over in October 2012. As you noted Ard, the diesels have always had a different schedule than the gas variants.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 2013 gas variants did not receive any major updates from MY 2012, so I find it hard to believe that the diesels would. The Eco Credit (or more specifically the increase of $1k) has always been an incentive to move what's on the ground and the $$ increase was just to move the overflow.

The F15 is right around the corner. Reportedly Fall 2013 is the debut. So I imagine both gas and diesel MY 2013 X5s will continue to be produced until next summer.

Originally Posted by Kief

I don't predict anything major will change for MY 2013 X5 diesels and nor will it be delayed until Dec. Production will continue until the change over in October 2012. As you noted Ard, the diesels have always had a different schedule than the gas variants.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 2013 gas variants did not receive any major updates from MY 2012, so I find it hard to believe that the diesels would. The Eco Credit (or more specifically the increase of $1k) has always been an incentive to move what's on the ground and the $$ increase was just to move the overflow.

The F15 is right around the corner. Reportedly Fall 2013 is the debut. So I imagine both gas and diesel MY 2013 X5s will continue to be produced until next summer.

I agree with most of what you say, I just bought a 2012 and hope they continue to improve on what they have going on. I will be in the market again in two to three years and the X5 will again be the front runner as long as I stay satisfied with what I have now and the changes they make going forward. Of course I will always look at the competition as well. Would be great to see the 40d w/8 speed when it shows up.

Originally Posted by jashearer

I think they add the 8-speed, pick up 1-2 rated MPG to help boost sales of the older bodystyle while us oil burners wait the normal 6+ months to get the redesigned 2014. I can't imagine the marketing guys would be excited to have the 2013MY diesel come out in Oct-Dec 2012 and then try to push it when everyone knows the gas redesign will be out in early-mid 2013.

Just my thoughts.

Jay

I don't even believe the f15 will get a diesel at launch in the USA at least. May not even get a diesel at all.

Originally Posted by apw2607

I don't even believe the f15 will get a diesel at launch in the USA at least. May not even get a diesel at all.

This would be

Jay

I think BMW is not going to change engine/transmission in a current version of X5, but with introduction of 2014 F15 is it quite realistic to expect X5 4.0D /8 speed transmission which will be again an UDM, considering weight loss around 300-400 pounds
At least for me F15 with bigger and more powerfull diesel matched with 8 speed tranny will be #1 contender when my lease on 2011 550 xi M is up
Alex
P.S. What if Porcshe decided to put a bigger diesel to Cayenne, we can only dream...........

8AT.

- Mike

BMW will probably do what they did to the E90. Build a ****ton of them and stop production for a month or so to switch over to the next model. The excess should last them a couple months. My local dealer still has a couple of E90s left.

AU is right - M57/8 speed doesn't exist anywhere. I do not think they will change anything in E70 diesel US spec.

BMW will be launching new diesels (B37/B47/B57), 3-,4-,6- cylinders respectively. The 4- and 6- cylinders should be available in 2013, the smallest one in 2014 (at least in Europe).

I do not have any link to the information / did not try to verify this - I heard this from a guy who works for BMW AG

First let me say, I think this 2012 35d push to empty the pipeline and later release of the 2013 35d was caused by the release of the 2013 Porsche Cayenne Diesel for September delivery at $55,750.00 Base (1000.00 less than X35d base ).. I think this was a shock to BMW.. I think the 2013 X5 will become the X5 40d with the 8 speed in the present body style with the new configuration body to follow early summer of 2013. as a 2014....This will keep a lot of buyers from jumping ship to the Cayenne...The thought of this is what is keeping me from placing an order for the Cayenne Diesel which is considerably lighter than the X5d and has the 8 speed trans.+ better MPG + ...Porsche Dealers that I have talked to tell me that they have orders in hand for the Cayenne Diesel.. I think Volkswagen, Audi TDI racing program is doing a lot to help future sales of Diesel...I don't think BMW is willing to wait while Porsche gets a big head start.. Hope I'm right so I can get my order in for the 2013 X5 40d 8 speed.....

Absolutely no drivetrain or transmission changes. Either it arrives in October as normal or no more diesel.

I would be surprised if they join 8AT with M57 at the end of the production cycle (only for a few months and only for US spec diesel)

I have been a long time BMW owner...and still am. However, I made the choice to move one of my cars to an SUV diesel. Tried out the X5 35d and the new Porsche Cayenne Diesel this week...just arrived at the dealer. It took 5 mintues to decide...the Cayenne was smooth, powerful, huge pana roof, nice lines...and so I bought one! The 2012 X5 35d seemed dated, not as nice interior..and not as fun to drive as the Cayenne. Loaded with Premium Plus package, Bose updraded stereo, 19" Cayenne Sport wheels and skid pad...$74,000 MSRP....The dealer got 3 Cayenne Diesels in...two where pre-sold and I bought the 3rd...

Will keep you posted...

Originally Posted by LIKECARZ

I have been a long time BMW owner...and still am. However, I made the choice to move one of my cars to an SUV diesel. Tried out the X5 35d and the new Porsche Cayenne Diesel this week...just arrived at the dealer. It took 5 mintues to decide...the Cayenne was smooth, powerful, huge pana roof, nice lines...and so I bought one! The 2012 X5 35d seemed dated, not as nice interior..and not as fun to drive as the Cayenne. Loaded with Premium Plus package, Bose updraded stereo, 19" Cayenne Sport wheels and skid pad...$74,000 MSRP....The dealer got 3 Cayenne Diesels in...two where pre-sold and I bought the 3rd...

Will keep you posted...

Your dealer already has the Cayenne Diesel in stock?

- Mike

Both of our dealers received the Porche Cayenne Diesel's on yesterday. Going to go test drive one today. Comparing that with the X5d. Really like the X5d, but intrigued by the Cayenne Diesel.

Originally Posted by Emission

Your dealer already has the Cayenne Diesel in stock?

- Mike

Originally Posted by DBV

Both of our dealers received the Porche Cayenne Diesel's on yesterday. Going to go test drive one today. Comparing that with the X5d. Really like the X5d, but intrigued by the Cayenne Diesel.

The Cayenne Diesel is quite good. Drive both back-to-back.

- Mike

....and I suspect no deals to be had either!