Stock Market Talk

Originally Posted by Griffoun

AAPL's been getting hammered, dropped 50 points since being added to my bearish list, and that's just in 2 trading days!

Maybe you mentioned this but why do you think? Is it ipad Mini and iPhone 5 disappointment?

I was not at all impressed by the iPhone 5 - I wanted a wider screen than my 4s, not longer!

Originally Posted by Chris90

Maybe you mentioned this but why do you think? Is it ipad Mini and iPhone 5 disappointment?

I was not at all impressed by the iPhone 5 - I wanted a wider screen than my 4s, not longer!

A small factor was because analysts' expectation was too high to begin with, but even at $700 the P/E wasn't that ridiculous given its huge profit margin.

But given the market is forward-looking, I'd say the street wants new product category and innovation from Apple. Steve Jobs claimed to have cracked the code with the mess in home entertainment system + TV + cable boxes, but I don't see any rumors about it recently. And no, it's not just the current Apple TV.

Amazon's Kindle Fire kills many birds in one stone - NFLX, AAPL, BKS, and retailers like BBY, RSH. TGT and WMT are now officially fighting back. Apple's response to AMZN is iPad mini, to capitalize on the lower-end of the the tablet market. The side effect is negative impact on 10" iPad and lowering revenue.

Finally, Apple has hard time gaining market share in emerging markets which Android has dominating position and making HUGE progress. Just look at today's QCOM earning report how Apple's been missing out there. The only way Apple can do better, IMO, is to create a second tier product or push the older models (4, 4S) to those market, thus reducing profit margin. And that's partly why Apple took another hit today.

iPhone5 disappointment... maybe, but then people have been saying it after the 3GS and 4S launch. However look at Samsung, the 4.8" GS3 and 5.5" Note 2 are selling like hotcakes. If Apple doesn't address this problem, they'll have a hard time keeping up the current momentum. A redesigned iOS UI would help too.

Originally Posted by Chris90

The invisible hand has a lot of work to do today. Good start though, brought the S&P up 10 points already.

Those short gains did not hold so well. I guess they wanted to lure in more suckers to buy the dip. Maybe the time has come for the long overdue bloodbath that the market desperately now needs. The economy here in Asia for retail sales is pretty darn bad. I have never seen it this bad in the 20 years of which I have been here for. It is worse than when SARS hit us here in Taiwan. Back then people had money but were scared to spend but mow many don't have Money and are even more scared to spend because back then when the economy was good you could spend all you had and know that when you worked the next day you could make it back but now people know that even if you work there is no business to make or earn it back.



My $.02 on what will happen next week is that we see a good pop. At first I was thinking that we would tank but Obama goes to Asia next week and when Presidents are abroad very rarely do markets tank or crash. Usually we see good gains when the President is abroad. While abroad one of their goals is to sell US treasuries and assure them that US markets are stable and strong so stocks usually gain while the President is abroad. I would say buying some SPY calls for a small pop next week should be good and then after that small pop or bounce we most likely head south again.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...president.html

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Added YHOO to my watchlist... the near term target is about 18.5, but it should go higher if Marissa Mayer can prove her talent and result in a couple quarters. She's been making small moves here and there and so far I'm liking them.

Edited: Also added AAPL back to my list... this could be their last merry x'mas for AAPL... it's time to get out after that. Heck, the market has already started cashing out after topping out at 700.

I started a small position in YHOO at 17.3 after it broke out from the narrow trading range, and now it's really going up after topping 18.5 last Friday. Goldman just set a price target of $24. Now the market has very high expectation with Marissa Mayer.

AAPL rebounded strongly from 530 which was the low in May. 50MA may cross 200MA soon.

Edited: Just saw this on CNN. If one store reflects how AAPL performs, then it will disappoint in the current quarter.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

I started a small position in YHOO at 17.3 after it broke out from the narrow trading range, and now it's really going up after topping 18.5 last Friday. Goldman just set a price target of $24. Now the market has very high expectation with Marissa Mayer.

AAPL rebounded strongly from 530 which was the low in May. 50MA may cross 200MA soon.

Edited: Just saw this on CNN. If one store reflects how AAPL performs, then it will disappoint in the current quarter.

Facebook just broke resistance at $25-26 could easily fly up from here or he sold back down again.

Not sure if I'm reading the chart correctly, but S seems to be ready for another try above $6 as long as volume comes back. The trading's been very thin since the deal with Softbank was announced.

Last time AAPL's 50MA crossed below 200MA in Sep 2009, the stock downed 50% to upper 80s during the economy meltdown. Before Nov 2012, it had not traded below the 200MA since Apr 2009.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Last time AAPL's 50MA crossed below 200MA in Sep 2009, the stock downed 50% to upper 80s during the economy meltdown. Before Nov 2012, it had not traded below the 200MA since Apr 2009.

Down almost $30 today, I wonder why...

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Down almost $30 today, I wonder why...

Going to get some good competition from RIMM when they release their new smartphone next year. Apple's maps are not helping much either at the time.

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

Going to get some good competition from RIMM when they release their new smartphone next year. Apple's maps are not helping much either at the time.

Another 20 points drop for AAPL. What's worse, it broke the low tested last month and in May earlier this year.

I can't say RIMM nor MSFT will have major impact to AAPL next year, and financially speaking AAPL is very solid, but it's not growing the way it used to be unless they come up with a new product line next year, especially in TV area.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

I started a small position in YHOO at 17.3 after it broke out from the narrow trading range, and now it's really going up after topping 18.5 last Friday. Goldman just set a price target of $24. Now the market has very high expectation with Marissa Mayer.

YHOO spent the last 2 weeks challenging $19 and today it finally took off again... $20 is the next stop.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

YHOO spent the last 2 weeks challenging $19 and today it finally took off again... $20 is the next stop.

Same with BAC at $10 but that $10 mark finally got cleared.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

I smell lawsuit for Mr Hastings' comment about 1B hrs streamed a couple weeks ago. He almost tricked me into buying calls, LOL!

Wonder why it took so long...

Originally Posted by Griffoun

A small factor was because analysts' expectation was too high to begin with, but even at $700 the P/E wasn't that ridiculous given its huge profit margin.

But given the market is forward-looking, I'd say the street wants new product category and innovation from Apple. Steve Jobs claimed to have cracked the code with the mess in home entertainment system + TV + cable boxes, but I don't see any rumors about it recently. And no, it's not just the current Apple TV.

Amazon's Kindle Fire kills many birds in one stone - NFLX, AAPL, BKS, and retailers like BBY, RSH. TGT and WMT are now officially fighting back. Apple's response to AMZN is iPad mini, to capitalize on the lower-end of the the tablet market. The side effect is negative impact on 10" iPad and lowering revenue.

Finally, Apple has hard time gaining market share in emerging markets which Android has dominating position and making HUGE progress. Just look at today's QCOM earning report how Apple's been missing out there. The only way Apple can do better, IMO, is to create a second tier product or push the older models (4, 4S) to those market, thus reducing profit margin. And that's partly why Apple took another hit today.

iPhone5 disappointment... maybe, but then people have been saying it after the 3GS and 4S launch. However look at Samsung, the 4.8" GS3 and 5.5" Note 2 are selling like hotcakes. If Apple doesn't address this problem, they'll have a hard time keeping up the current momentum. A redesigned iOS UI would help too.

Rock Center: Brian Williams interviewed Tim Cook

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Another 20 points drop for AAPL. What's worse, it broke the low tested last month and in May earlier this year.

I can't say RIMM nor MSFT will have major impact to AAPL next year, and financially speaking AAPL is very solid, but it's not growing the way it used to be unless they come up with a new product line next year, especially in TV area.

AAPL: Nobody in China cares the iPhone5. 530 officially gone. How low can it go?

Originally Posted by Griffoun

AAPL: Nobody in China cares the iPhone5. 530 officially gone. How low can it go?

I am thinking $500

Is anyone familiar with VHC? That patents company who won a lawsuit against AAPL and then filed another lawsuit the next day. I'm looking for opinions on VHC.

Originally Posted by EC7

Is anyone familiar with VHC? That patents company who won a lawsuit against AAPL and then filed another lawsuit the next day. I'm looking for opinions on VHC.

I don't invest in patent trolls. In fact I would like the patent system to be overhauled so companies like VHC cannot make a penny out of the system.

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

I am thinking $500

Seems to be the case. It's rebounded to above 550 which looked to have bottomed out in the short term. May worth a look if it pulls back a bit and goes up again.

YHOO has easily topped $20... for those with faith with the CEO, they have made a handsome return from mid $14. For me, at least it has been outperforming S&P since I got in at $17.3

Very interesting post on trading coffee (JO). If you agree with the article, SBUX will be declining with rising coffee prices.

MCP and LVS up nicely today. SLV making a come back. I personally believe that Silver is a great buy at today's prices and those that buy the dips should be rewarded this year. I think this last drop on Silver created a great buying opportunity. Time of course will tell if I am right or wrong on this.

BAC doing well and making new highs. I think that provided that the market does not crash I expect BAC to hit $15. On a side note though this market is way overdue for a huge crash. Had it not been for that invisible hand though this market would not be where it is today.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

I don't invest in patent trolls. In fact I would like the patent system to be overhauled so companies like VHC cannot make a penny out of the system.

+1

I have a friend who has been pitching me VHC for the last 2 years...

If I listened to him I'd make some good money... but I am just not interested in investing in "Rambus" types of scumbag patent troll... just not my thing...

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Not sure if I'm reading the chart correctly, but S seems to be ready for another try above $6 as long as volume comes back. The trading's been very thin since the deal with Softbank was announced.

Closed at 5.79 today. Not 52 weeks high but it is from closing perspective.

I don't know if any of you pay attention to Hong Kong's stock market, but there're several high market-cap listed in NYSE, such as LFC. I've ignored it for a while but it's back to my radar now that HSI (ETF: EWH) has been having a great run, it's worth checking out stocks in that category.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Closed at 5.79 today. Not 52 weeks high but it is from closing perspective.

It's on the move...

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Seems to be the case. It's rebounded to above 550 which looked to have bottomed out in the short term. May worth a look if it pulls back a bit and goes up again.

Let's watch.

Originally Posted by Griffoun

It's on the move...

think its time to get in S (long)?

Originally Posted by Griffoun

Closed at 5.79 today. Not 52 weeks high but it is from closing perspective.

I don't know if any of you pay attention to Hong Kong's stock market, but there're several high market-cap listed in NYSE, such as LFC. I've ignored it for a while but it's back to my radar now that HSI (ETF: EWH) has been having a great run, it's worth checking out stocks in that category.

I trade often on the Hong Kong Stock exchange. Prefer it over the US one as I have better luck on there