Welcome to Bimmerfest -- The #1 Online Community for BMW related information! Please enjoy the discussion forums below and share your experiences with the 200,000 current, new and past BMW owners. The forums are broken out by car model and into other special interest sections such as BMW European Delivery and a special forum to voice your questions to the many BMW dealers on the site to assist our members!

Please follow the links below to help get you started!

Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > BMW Model Discussions > 3 Series / 4 Series

3 Series / 4 Series
The 3 Series / 4 Series Forum. If you would like to see all new posts in all the forums, click here.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-04-2002, 06:00 PM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Michigan winter with SP tires?

Michigan winter with SP tires? Can it be done?


Looks like a warmer than average winter is expected...

Is the E46 with SP tires really bad in snow?
Ads by Google
  #2  
Old 11-04-2002, 06:04 PM
geomax geomax is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: MA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 1,719
Mein Auto: 335i
Interesting chart. What did they base this prediction on??
  #3  
Old 11-04-2002, 06:13 PM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Here's the reasoning...

Quote:
Forecast Reasoning
The forecast for the winter of 2002/2003 is primarily based on the climate anomalies related to a moderate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and the antecedent conditions of a previously warm winter. Also considered were the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) being in the negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the phase of the solar cycle and the coupled ocean-atmosphere model. These will all be tied together to show why we are expecting this winter to be warmer than normal, with less than the normal snowfall.

El Niño
Typically a moderate ENSO event results in winters that are warmer and drier than normal with significantly less snowfall than normal over the north central United States. Weak El Niño winters tend to be colder and snowier than normal. Currently we are just barely in a moderate El Niño event, and that is forecast to continue through this coming winter. It should be noted that the structure of this El Niño event is not typical in that the warmest water, which would typically be near the coast of South America, is closer to the International Date Line. This odd structure of El Niño, is in part due to the PDO now being in the negative phase. Even so, moderate or stronger El Niño's typically result in warm winters in southwest Michigan.

PDO
The PDO is a larger scale oscillation than ENSO. It affects the ocean temperature anomalies across the Pacific Ocean over the time span of decades. Since the PDO affects a larger region of the Pacific Ocean, while ENSO is primarily a tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly, it makes sense that the PDO modulates the strength of ENSO. When the PDO is in the positive phase, as it was from 1978 to 1998, then the positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, dominates the tropical Pacific Ocean. In this scenario strong El Niño's like the 1982 and 1997 events are typical. La Niña events, the negative phase of ENSO, are weaker and less frequent. During the negative phase of the PDO, La Niña events are more prominent. When there are El Niño events during the negative phase, as will be the case this winter, they tend to be weaker and not be as big of a factor in the weather over the northern United States. It should be noted that the PDO is now in the negative phase as it was from around 1947 until 1977. During that time, southwest Michigan had a series of cold winters. The negative phase of the PDO is having an adverse impact on the development of the current El Niño. This is likely to keep El Niño from developing anything like the strong El Niño's of 1982 or 1997. The impact of the PDO being in the negative phase is that it decreases the likelihood of a warm winter in southwest Michigan, but does not totally preclude it.

NAO
Typically the most significant aspect to forecasting the winter weather over Michigan is the phase of the NAO. The negative phase results in cold and snowy weather, as was the case during December of 2000, when Grand Rapids received 59 inches of snow and was 8.1° F below normal. The positive phase of the NAO typically results in warm and dry weather over southwest Michigan. An example of this was January 2001 when Grand Rapids received only 4.1 inches of snow and was 3.7° F above normal. The change from warm weather in early to mid October of this year, to the sharply colder weather during the second half of October is another example of the impact of the NAO shifting from the positive to the negative phase. Only strong El Niño's can overcome the effects of the negative phase of the NAO and its impact on winter weather in Michigan. The NAO has been mainly in the positive phase since the late 1970s. It should be noted, that most of the winters in southwest Michigan have been warm since 1987. Since the NAO has had about a 30 year cycle, it would seem that the NAO will likely display the positive phase for most of this coming winter. It should be pointed out that unlike the PDO, the NAO shows much sharper changes in phase from week to week. The overall NAO contribution would seem to favor another warm winter.

Previous Warm Winters
Nationally, looking at winters from 1895 to the present, there have been 17 instances where a warm winter was followed by a warm summer (with both those winters and summers ranking in the top one-third warmest). Nationwide, the subsequent winter ended up in the 1/3 warmest 9 out of 17 times, and in the coldest 1/3 only 5 times. Clearly the current pattern of a warm winter, followed by a warm summer, suggest another warm winter.

Solar Cycle
The solar cycle had an unusual double peak last winter, but now the activity is on the down swing. Typically, the solar cycle is 11 years in length. While solar activity is expected to be on a slow down swing this winter, it should still be fairly active. Elevated solar activity tends to result in the polar jet stream exhibiting a more zonal flow yielding warmer winters. Weak solar activity results in more meridional flow in the jet stream, and thus favors colder winters. Since we are just coming off the peak of the solar cycle, this too would seem to favor a warmer winter for southwest Michigan.

Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model
NCEP's (National Center for Environmental Predication) coupled ocean atmosphere model is forecasting a cold winter for most of the northern United States, with the coldest anomalies over the Great Lakes and northern New England. This, of course, is in sharp contrast to the other tools which nearly all suggest that this coming winter should be warm.

Local Information
Since 1950 there have been 4 moderate winter El Niño events. During those episodes southwest Michigan typically has had warm winters with below normal snowfall. Rainfall was below normal inland and near normal by the lake shore. Winter temperatures for the 4 winters with moderate El Niño's averaged over 1° F above normal for Grand Rapids, Lansing and Muskegon. Snowfall averaged over 11 inches below normal at Grand Rapids, 7 inches below normal at Muskegon and 16 inches below normal at Lansing. Rainfall averaged 1.2 inches above normal in Muskegon, but 2.7 inches below normal in Lansing, and 1.0 inch below normal in Grand Rapids. Only 1 of those 4 winters was cold, (winter of 1969) and that year the PDO was negative, the NAO was strongly negative and the solar cycle was just coming out of a minimum. During the 4 winters with moderate El Niño conditions snowfall was well below normal in Lansing for all 4 winters, Grand Rapids 3 out of the 4 and Muskegon 2 out of 4. The bottom line is that moderate El Niño's tend to result in warm winters in southwest Michigan, with below normal snowfall and below normal rainfall inland, but near normal rainfall near the lake shore.

Since the current El Niño event is forecast to be on the low side of moderate, the following information on weak El Niño's is provided as additional information. In the past 50 years when there was a weak El Niño during the winter months (11 times), 6 out of those 11 winters were cold across southwest Michigan. The average departure from normal for Grand Rapids, Lansing and Muskegon for all of those winters was about 1° F below normal.

Since 1895 there have been 11 occurrences in southwest Michigan where we had a sequence of a warm winter (top 1/3 warmest), a cool spring, followed by a warm summer. Given the above sequence of events the following winter had above normal temperatures approximately 65 percent of the time. Only 18 percent of those winters were cold. Snowfall at Grand Rapids averaged 59 inches for all of those winters, which is over a foot below normal.


Putting it Together
The forecast for the upcoming winter is for above normal temperatures across southwest Michigan. Snowfall is expected to be below normal. As for rainfall, while the correlation is weak, rainfall is expected to average below normal. This is primarily based upon the moderate El Niño that is underway and the NAO being predominately in the positive phase. Other contributing factors include the solar cycle is just past a peak and warm winters are typically followed by warm winters.
  #4  
Old 11-04-2002, 06:28 PM
rwebbe rwebbe is offline
Lead Foot
Location: Melbourne, FL
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 442
Mein Auto: '02 330ci
Weather Prognostication

Now the above is what I would call an in depth answer. If we are to believe the map, I can turn off my sprinkling system here in the South during the winter months. I would very much hate to drive my 330ci in the snow or worse yet ice. The torque is so geat, and my right foot a wee bit numb from back surgery I would be tempted to start out in 3rd or 4th gear. Drove mostly Cadillacs rear and front drive in all sorts of snow, but they did not get up and snort starting out from a dead start like my "Bimmer".
  #5  
Old 11-04-2002, 06:39 PM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Re: Weather Prognostication

Quote:
Originally posted by rwebbe
Now the above is what I would call an in depth answer. If we are to believe the map, I can turn off my sprinkling system here in the South during the winter months. I would very much hate to drive my 330ci in the snow or worse yet ice. The torque is so geat, and my right foot a wee bit numb from back surgery I would be tempted to start out in 3rd or 4th gear. Drove mostly Cadillacs rear and front drive in all sorts of snow, but they did not get up and snort starting out from a dead start like my "Bimmer".
That said, I do have an "underpowered" 325i.
  #6  
Old 11-04-2002, 07:05 PM
rwebbe rwebbe is offline
Lead Foot
Location: Melbourne, FL
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 442
Mein Auto: '02 330ci
Snow Tires?

Pete, I don't profess to be savvy on the mechanics of these cars, but I drove a 325i, the X-5, the 745i and a 330i during a Koman drive here a few eeks ago, and none of them had the get up and go like my 330ci. I am told it has a different numbered ZF Tranny than the sedans. It digs hard when you push it and slips some on an easy start up. The Step type I am talking about..After 8K miles I am afraid to look at the rear tires to check for wear. Try one some time and see if it is like mine. I dream that by mistake the factory installed a special Tranny. I did get a disclaimer on the Step. Model from BMW after a few months of use.
  #7  
Old 11-04-2002, 09:15 PM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
You live in Grand Rapids, MI... its going to snow. Just because the prediction says warm it not like your going to have Arizona weather. Alot of times with warm winter air you will have more and heaver snow falls.
  #8  
Old 11-04-2002, 09:18 PM
Nick325xiT 5spd's Avatar
Nick325xiT 5spd Nick325xiT 5spd is offline
Registered User
Location: Bethesda, MD
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 10,861
Send a message via ICQ to Nick325xiT 5spd Send a message via AIM to Nick325xiT 5spd Send a message via Yahoo to Nick325xiT 5spd
Mein Auto: M3 & 323i/999 KP
Re: Snow Tires?

Quote:
Originally posted by rwebbe
Pete, I don't profess to be savvy on the mechanics of these cars, but I drove a 325i, the X-5, the 745i and a 330i during a Koman drive here a few eeks ago, and none of them had the get up and go like my 330ci. I am told it has a different numbered ZF Tranny than the sedans. It digs hard when you push it and slips some on an easy start up. The Step type I am talking about..After 8K miles I am afraid to look at the rear tires to check for wear. Try one some time and see if it is like mine. I dream that by mistake the factory installed a special Tranny. I did get a disclaimer on the Step. Model from BMW after a few months of use.
You drive the piss out of it and have trained the throttle to start hard, and always in first. The cars you drove at the Koman drive may not have had your level of training.
__________________
2006 GMC Sierra 2500HD 4WD Duramax LBZ/Allison 6-speed
2002 BMW M3 Alpinweiß/Black
1999 323i KP/GTS2 Alpinweiß
1990 325is Brilliantrot/Tan
1989 325is S50B30US Alpinweiß/Black
1989 M3 Alpinweiß/Black S50B32 (321hp, ITBs)


  #9  
Old 11-04-2002, 09:20 PM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
Snow + SP tires = Big ugly dent.
  #10  
Old 11-06-2002, 09:16 AM
rob328i rob328i is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: MI
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 6
Mein Auto: 1999 328i
Grand Rapids.... don't you get a lot of lake effect snow??? I live in Novi, suburb NW of Detroit. My winter will be much milder than yours... and I wouldn't take the risk of driving on my summer tires here!!! Even a dusting of snow could be potentially dangerous on these tires. I'd prefer to spend the money upfront on risk avoidance (with age comes wisdom!!)!!
  #11  
Old 11-06-2002, 10:24 AM
xmas63 xmas63 is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: CT
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 197
Mein Auto: 2002 Saph/Blk 330i
If you had all seasons, I'd say maybe (MAYBE) you can get away with it, so long as you don't go out in anything too heavy. But SP tires, NO WAY. I once tried, and it was horrendous---I was all over the place, unable to scale even small inclines.
  #12  
Old 11-06-2002, 10:30 AM
TranceLvr TranceLvr is offline
Silently Lurking
Location: Chicago, IL
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 954
Mein Auto: people crazy
Pete, I was considering trying it and then I realized how bad my car is in the rain when it's cold. I realized that the price of winters are not nearly as bad as missing work cause you got stuck or worse yet, wrecking the car. For that reason I ordered my winters yesterday.
__________________
  #13  
Old 11-06-2002, 10:53 AM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Thanks for the comments, everyone...

Yes, Grand Rapids does typically get lake effect... but last winter was easy. There were probably just 5-10 days that I would have had to drive in unplowed snow-covered streets. Also, I'm planning to move to North Carolina by next winter so I'd really only need snow tires this winter... and maybe next winter at the most.

But from the advice/comments here I think I'm going to drive down to TireRack this weekend to get snows put on. Since I should be in warmer snow-free climates next winter, I'm going to just get the snow tires put on my 17" wheels instead of getting another set of wheels.

Time to call Eddie @ TireRack...
  #14  
Old 11-06-2002, 11:01 AM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
You can get some cheap Blizzacks and steel rims for around $640 from Tirerack it will save the stock rims from the road salt.
  #15  
Old 11-06-2002, 11:09 AM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Quote:
Originally posted by Artslinger
You can get some cheap Blizzacks and steel rims for around $640 from Tirerack it will save the stock rims from the road salt.
True...

$644.20 (shipping included) for 16" steels and 205/55-R16 WS-50s.
$617.98 (shipping + $15/tire installation) for 225/45-R17 WS-50s.

Steels are so ugly though.

Hmm... decision, decisions...
  #16  
Old 11-06-2002, 11:20 AM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
Quote:
Originally posted by Pete Teoh


True...

$644.20 (shipping included) for 16" steels and 205/55-R16 WS-50s.
$617.98 (shipping + $15/tire installation) for 225/45-R17 WS-50s.

Steels are so ugly though.

Hmm... decision, decisions...

Yeah... I know I have them on my car right now... they look a little better with hub caps (ah a little bit). But they're cheap and get the job done. I didn't have the cash to layout for nice rims...
  #17  
Old 11-06-2002, 11:31 AM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
Not sure if Grand Rapids has a big pot hole problem... but here in Chicago we get BIG numerous pot holes... steels will handle the pot holes better then the SP rims. Salt will pit the aluminum rims.

If you can't stand the steels and its only one winter switching tires may be the right thing for you.
  #18  
Old 11-06-2002, 11:39 AM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Quote:
Originally posted by Artslinger
Not sure if Grand Rapids has a big pot hole problem... but here in Chicago we get BIG numerous pot holes... steels will handle the pot holes better then the SP rims. Salt will pit the aluminum rims.

If you can't stand the steels and its only one winter switching tires may be the right thing for you.
Pot holes are everywhere in Grand Rapids, winter, spring, summer or fall.

Do alloy rims really get affected that easily by salt? Will they be OK if I hose off the salt at least once a week?
  #19  
Old 11-06-2002, 01:51 PM
Artslinger's Avatar
Artslinger Artslinger is offline
BMW + twisty road = fun
Location: Evanston
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,892
Mein Auto: Car
You will probably be OK for one winter. I'm sure people do it all the time... after three or four winters they will look nasty.
  #20  
Old 11-06-2002, 02:35 PM
JST's Avatar
JST JST is offline
A sudden sense of liberty
Location: U of ///M
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 3,936
Mein Auto: 535xiT, Golf R, 987S
I've driven my share of summer-tired cars (a dozen or more) in Michigan winters (maybe 10), everything from high-powered front drivers (like Probe GTs and Taurus SHOs) to high-powered rear drivers (mainly Mustang GTs). It's not pretty. Summer tires cause even FWD machines to skate like Dorothy Hamill, except without the control. There were (many) times were a moderate snowfall would leave me stuck in the house like a shut in.

That said, I found that my 323Ci with 17" Contis wasn't completely intolerable in a couple of moderate snows we got down in DC. The combination of decent weight distribution and traction control made it possible to drive, albeit at a greatly reduced pace. The 323 was actually a lot better in the snow than my SVT Contour, which had Eagle GS-Cs and no traction control or LSD.

Bottom line, though: I wouldn't live where it snowed heavily and try and drive on summer performance tires in any car. The BMW is not bad, but no combination of traction control, weight distribution or AWD can overcome the lack of tire traction provided by summer tires.

In DC, I stick with summers, and the one or two times it snows I take the other car.
  #21  
Old 11-06-2002, 02:53 PM
dlloyd1975's Avatar
dlloyd1975 dlloyd1975 is offline
IRIX Rocks!
Location: St Louis, MO
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 742
Send a message via Yahoo to dlloyd1975
Mein Auto: 325iT Schlampenschlepper
Seriously cool!

Wow, that's seriously cool! You have a URL for where you got that?
__________________
--dlloyd1975



The Shaggin' Wagon
2003 Gray Green 325iT, PP, SP, CW, HK, Sand 'Ette
  #22  
Old 11-06-2002, 04:56 PM
Pete Teoh's Avatar
Pete Teoh Pete Teoh is offline
Vegan, not Romulan
Location: North Cackalacky
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,971
Send a message via ICQ to Pete Teoh Send a message via AIM to Pete Teoh Send a message via MSN to Pete Teoh Send a message via Yahoo to Pete Teoh
Mein Auto: ****
Re: Seriously cool!

Quote:
Originally posted by dlloyd1975
Wow, that's seriously cool! You have a URL for where you got that?
You mean the weather forecast? It's on NOAA's website. I found this on the Central Region HQ section.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s997.htm

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/news/wf0203/story.html
  #23  
Old 11-07-2002, 05:51 AM
CRASHDAKOTA CRASHDAKOTA is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: CT
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 34
Mein Auto: 2002 325i
U NEED SNOWS! :)

Hey Pete I just took my 2002 325i with my 17" summer tires that come with the sport package skiing up at killington over the weekend, and put it this way I had enough trouble just to try to park, leaving the parking lot was even worse. Those tires just have no bite in the snow.
 

Bookmarks


Forum Navigation
Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > BMW Model Discussions > 3 Series / 4 Series
Today's Posts Search
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 01:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
© 2001-2011 performanceIX, Inc. All Rights Reserved .: guidelines .:. privacy .:. terms