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-   -   Let's Discuss Something Relevant/Timely to New Car Buying Today (https://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1348185)

Jon Shafer 09-26-2019 12:51 PM

Let's Discuss Something Relevant/Timely to New Car Buying Today
 
Anybody have anything?

:dunno:

33 years in the car biz this month, feel free to ask me anything..

1968BMW2800 09-26-2019 01:12 PM

I'll bite, Jon. Thanks for the invitation.

In today's world where invoice and TrueCar/Edmunds Market Value Pricing is so easily accessible, what is the "average" reasonably financially qualified buyer paying for a new BMW relative to MSRP? Recent published articles suggest dealers are selling into holdback on new BMW deals a lot. Your sense?

namelessman 09-26-2019 02:49 PM

Local dealer sent an email that says they will have a sales event this Fri, and selected models can have up to $6k off, plus misc. other incentives.

So for the month of September, what are the incentives per BMW playbook?

alex2364 09-26-2019 04:23 PM

BMW changed the MSD program a while back and reduced the rate reduction. Is it still worthwhile to do MSDs vs keeping my cash in a savings account with 2% interest?

Jon Shafer 09-26-2019 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 (Post 13116559)
I'll bite, Jon. Thanks for the invitation.

In today's world where invoice and TrueCar/Edmunds Market Value Pricing is so easily accessible, what is the "average" reasonably financially qualified buyer paying for a new BMW relative to MSRP? Recent published articles suggest dealers are selling into holdback on new BMW deals a lot. Your sense?


The true answer is that I have only been back about a week or so, but based on experience I would have to say "it depends". The answer depends on model of course, as well as availability.

The general rule is the more expensive the car (i.e., the higher the base MSRP) the deeper one can go into the so-called "below-the-line money".. Some of the more expensive models have special "flagship" incentives.

"Holdback" in its true sense and as a part of actual BMW business was taken away in 1999 or 2000 (I was running Cutter BMW at the time, cannot recall exactly). There was/is still what is known as "added value bonus" tied to dealer's following best practices, maintaining solid CSI scores, etc (not guaranteed). Often there are short-term pushes that involve a bonus only attained by hitting targeted volume objectives.

Overall, it is of my opinion that BMW has really toned down the previous "gold rush" of "stackable incentives" (I am glad about that, they seemed to degrade the brand too much like tier-2 domestics et al).

Which model are you thinking of?

Quote:

Originally Posted by namelessman (Post 13116651)
Local dealer sent an email that says they will have a sales event this Fri, and selected models can have up to $6k off, plus misc. other incentives.

So for the month of September, what are the incentives per BMW playbook?

BMW has seemingly gotten away from a national marketing "playbook" like we had for a couple of years in the mid 2010s. Things now are more closely scaled to regional market level.

Jon Shafer 09-26-2019 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alex2364 (Post 13116761)
BMW changed the MSD program a while back and reduced the rate reduction. Is it still worthwhile to do MSDs vs keeping my cash in a savings account with 2% interest?


Now this is a great question, worthy of putting a pencil to it if you've got the time...


The MSD Program is something that I strongly supported way back before I started Bimmerfest and it became part of the zeitgeist of our forum for new car buyers for many years.

Way back in the 1990s the program was a no-brainer. You could apply up to TEN (10) additional deposits, and each was worth an astounding .0001!

Time went by, rates went down, and one day BMWFS announces a huge curtailment of the program, you could only use 5 extra SDs and the benefit was cut in half.

People quit doing the program altogether, so it was adjusted again to 7 deposits and a .00007 rate factor reduction.

Then not long ago it was cut back again.

With rates they way they are now I suspect the yield has decayed such that few buyers take the option these days.

The MSD program was first conceived/invented back when leasing came of age in the early 1990s.....as a tool to convert traditional cash buyers into lessees. Why pay cash when you could lease and "make" money?

:dunno:


Today, the returns probably don't justify participation I am guessing..

1968BMW2800 09-27-2019 07:17 AM

Thank you Jon.

namelessman 09-27-2019 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer (Post 13116999)
....
With rates they way they are now I suspect the yield has decayed such that few buyers take the option these days.

The MSD program was first conceived/invented back when leasing came of age in the early 1990s.....as a tool to convert traditional cash buyers into lessees. Why pay cash when you could lease and "make" money?

:dunno:


Today, the returns probably don't justify participation I am guessing..

One local president's person commented a few years ago that across the US, the majority(like 80+%?) of BMWFS MSDs concentrated in NorCal, from lessees who loved to earn high interest rate. Is there any truth in that? :) My guess is that BMWFS figures out that eliminating the program does not hurt business that much.

Another subtle point is that the interest lost with MSD rate drop cannot be recouped with the low prevailing interest rate earned from MSD cash. So another guess is that BMWFS sells these leases as collaterialized debt obligation, and MSD probably allows the instrument to qualify for more favorable tranches.

Jon Shafer 09-27-2019 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by namelessman (Post 13117229)
One local president's person commented a few years ago that across the US, the majority(like 80+%?) of BMWFS MSDs concentrated in NorCal, from lessees who loved to earn high interest rate. Is there any truth in that? :) My guess is that BMWFS figures out that eliminating the program does not hurt business that much.


Now that is an interesting comment. During my last run (2011-2016) I delivered many new BMWs, and the percentage of them who utilized MSDs in their leases had to be close to 75%! Many of my buyers were from SF Bay area, but many too were from the greater Los Angeles area, as well as OC and SD.

The most interesting point is the percentage of Bimmerfest members who took the MSD option (the overwhelming majority). I think this really speaks to the idea that these buyers are or were THE most well-educated/most savvy new car buyers out there. Many work in IT/Tech and so it makes sense that there would be clusters in geographical areas heavy in IT/Tech such as NorCal, NE, Texas, ...etc.

I think that the program was changed because it just no longer made financial sense for BMWFS given the current rate climate..

namelessman 09-27-2019 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer (Post 13117469)
Now that is an interesting comment. During my last run (2011-2016) I delivered many new BMWs, and the percentage of them who utilized MSDs in their leases had to be close to 75%! Many of my buyers were from SF Bay area, but many too were from the greater Los Angeles area, as well as OC and SD.

The most interesting point is the percentage of Bimmerfest members who took the MSD option (the overwhelming majority). I think this really speaks to the idea that these buyers are or were THE most well-educated/most savvy new car buyers out there. Many work in IT/Tech and so it makes sense that there would be clusters in geographical areas heavy in IT/Tech such as NorCal, NE, Texas, ...etc.

I think that the program was changed because it just no longer made financial sense for BMWFS given the current rate climate..

Surely MSDs and subsidized RV and stackable incentives and everyday low rate(fed rate + 3% = 3% when fed rate is zero!) made leasing quite attractive starting, say, around 7 years ago(2012 fall) when BMWAG started dumping euro allocation (esp. F30 3-series) to major metro markets(group F's?).

The lease "goodies" did not stop at lease acquisition, rather the huge RV haircut at lease buyout to match FMV(instead of inflated RV) was really the hidden gem that some festers utilized.

Now that lease incentives and buyout discounts have been significantly curtailed, the pendulum seems to swing back to cash/finance.

Jon Shafer 09-27-2019 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by namelessman (Post 13117797)
Surely MSDs and subsidized RV and stackable incentives and everyday low rate(fed rate + 3% = 3% when fed rate is zero!) made leasing quite attractive starting, say, around 7 years ago(2012 fall) when BMWAG started dumping euro allocation (esp. F30 3-series) to major metro markets(group F's?).

The lease "goodies" did not stop at lease acquisition, rather the huge RV haircut at lease buyout to match FMV(instead of inflated RV) was really the hidden gem that some festers utilized.

Now that lease incentives and buyout discounts have been significantly curtailed, the pendulum seems to swing back to cash/finance.

It will be interesting to observe what follows next. I bet we'll see a new era of heavier marketing in the coming period based on the few conversations I had..

jjrandorin 09-28-2019 06:15 AM

On the MSD front, I still have 7 MSDs on the X3 I got in January, but the main reason for that was that BMW already had a fair amount of my money from the 7 MSDs on the car I was turning in. All I needed to do was include some extra as the new car had a higher payment. @GregPoland made that very easy for me. If I had to wait for a return of my MSDs in "weeks" while still putting down the new cash for 7 of them on lease pick up day, I likely wouldnt have done it this time.

I am interested to see what BMW has when this car comes off lease which is Jan 2022. My wife is not working presently, and that is unlikely to change at this point, so we are putting very low miles on her X3. It has under 3k miles on it, and we got it on Jan 9th of this year. Conversely, I have 14k miles on my car that I got 1 month earlier than hers. Her car will likely have 15-18k miles on it after 3 years, so it might make some sense for us to pay a premium for it and keep it at that point. While I have an EV and actually love it, I am not 100% sure I am ready to be a fully ev household.

Having a SUV is convenient if we have company to take with us somewhere, and her car is really nice. I planned on splitting driving her car and mine to work to split the miles up between the two, but I enjoy driving my car so much more than hers, I never take hers, so its only going to have "around town" miles for most of our time with it.

namelessman 09-28-2019 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjrandorin (Post 13117943)
I am interested to see what BMW has when this car comes off lease which is Jan 2022. My wife is not working presently, and that is unlikely to change at this point, so we are putting very low miles on her X3. It has under 3k miles on it, and we got it on Jan 9th of this year. Conversely, I have 14k miles on my car that I got 1 month earlier than hers. Her car will likely have 15-18k miles on it after 3 years, so it might make some sense for us to pay a premium for it and keep it at that point. While I have an EV and actually love it, I am not 100% sure I am ready to be a fully ev household.

PG&E recently advised NorCal customers to fill up their cars to prepare for rolling blackouts, so a pure EV household without solar + battery pack can be problematic.

Your post brought up an interesting point. What is the strategy to balance out the miles within the stable? One lesson learnt is that low mileage + advanced age does not mean high resale value. At the same time, the miles saved can also delay high mileage(e.g. beyond 100k) repair + maintenance that can be costly for BMW, so it is a balancing act(and can affect car-buying/leasing strategies)

1968BMW2800 09-28-2019 10:23 AM

New Question
 
So, Jon, now that you're back in Sales Manager World again, which involves desking deals, can you offer us any insight into how modern dealerships keep track of the moving parts to inform pricing decisions on individual deals?

I've watched a Sales Manager desking multiple deals, really, really fast. Is he just keeping score in his head or is the software giving him real time updates as to broader sales goals? Updates that give the desk person insight as to when it's time to dip deeper and when to hold the line?

For example, you punch parameters into the desking software, say, to hold $500 over invoice and you get different looks as to how you can play with payments, rate, down/drive-off amount, etc. But how can you determine whether or not to dip back below invoice to do an individual deal? How do you know where you are in relation to some other goal or program? How are the moving targets tracked?

Thanks.

Weaselboy 09-28-2019 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer (Post 13116999)
Today, the returns probably don't justify participation I am guessing..

I leased a 540i last May and crunched the math, and MSD is still a pretty good deal so I went with it.

$5,250 in MSDs lowered my payment $38.60 a month, so saves me $1,389 over the 36 months.

That same $5,250 in a three year 2.4% CD nets me $391. So MSDs is the better deal by almost $1,000.

So not as good as it was like you said, but still worth it IMO. :)

FlyingDiver 09-28-2019 10:39 AM

I think this is pertinent to the topic.

When ordering a car to be built (not off the lot or dealer exchange), does the order date mean anything to the dealer's incentives, or just the final sale date after delivery to dealer?

FlyingDiver 09-28-2019 11:37 AM

And a followup - what's a reasonable deposit for a factory order? $500? $1000? More?

This is for an X4 M40i, MSRP right about $70k.

dkreidel 09-28-2019 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingDiver (Post 13118213)
And a followup - what's a reasonable deposit for a factory order? $500? $1000? More?

This is for an X4 M40i, MSRP right about $70k.

Zero; I've never made a deposit for a factory ordered BMW or Mini...more than 24 of 'em.

namelessman 09-28-2019 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingDiver (Post 13118213)
And a followup - what's a reasonable deposit for a factory order? $500? $1000? More?

This is for an X4 M40i, MSRP right about $70k.

Local dealers usually ask for $500 to $1000, fully refundable per CA consumers law.

ard 09-29-2019 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer (Post 13116999)

.....as a tool to convert traditional cash buyers into lessees.

..

Why did BMW care?

namelessman 09-29-2019 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ard (Post 13118927)
Why did BMW care?

The premise is that typically cash buyers hold on to cars for a long time, while lessees must churn every 3 years to boost sales volume.

1968BMW2800 09-29-2019 10:40 AM

Decades ago, I was informed by someone in a position to know, that Sears really didn't need to turn a net profit on selling stuff, because their credit business was such a cash cow.

I wonder to what extent car companies have been in the same boat, for a long time? Especially now that bundled and securitized debt is sold around the world.

This would help explain how companies can make money even after offering leases with inflated residuals, incentives, and low interest rates.

I asked my dealer how it could work when at $42K MSRP 2017 car, offered for lease with a $2,000 incentive, a 65% residual, and a 3% interest rate, which will sell at wholesale auction 3 years later for $18,000, can in any way contribute to bottom line profit for the Mother Ship. His answer: "Evidently it does."

namelessman 09-29-2019 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 (Post 13119011)
I asked my dealer how it could work when at $42K MSRP 2017 car, offered for lease with a $2,000 incentive, a 65% residual, and a 3% interest rate, which will sell at wholesale auction 3 years later for $18,000, can in any way contribute to bottom line profit for the Mother Ship. His answer: "Evidently it does."

In addition to CDOs(and how MSDs can qualify for senior tranches), another thing to note is the margin built into US MSRP by BMWAG.

A number of years ago someone posted a thread about an import customs declaration sheet left in the glove box. That post(and the PDF) was quickly taken down. That post provided a Rosetta Stone moment, namely, it showed a declared import price of 50-60% of US MSRP by BMWAG for that model.

Let's assume it is factual. That would mean BMWNA has a margin of 40-50% to fund HQ operations, AVPs, stair steps, corporate fleet, trunk money, 6-7% delta between MSRP versus invoice, or even 10-20% RV haircut, etc, etc.

On the last point, it means with that margin, BMWNA can front load the perceived "loss" from auction price versus RV at year 3, to the invoice/MSRP of new car!

All my speculations of course. :D

1968BMW2800 09-29-2019 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by namelessman (Post 13119029)

All my speculations of course. :D

Informed speculations!! I think you're onto something.

namelessman 09-29-2019 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 (Post 13119055)
Informed speculations!! I think you're onto something.

The icing on the cake is that, cash buyers actually pay the alleged lease end padding just like lessees, as it is same "inflated" invoice/MSRP? Sounds a great conspiracy theory, yes/no? :)


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