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-   -   Depreciation (https://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1336397)

rpickoff 06-28-2019 05:56 AM

Depreciation
 
A dealer is telling me that my 2018 430 I asked convertible which is a year and a half old is worth $25,500 Trade In is that possible??? It has 38,000 miles


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Doug Huffman 06-28-2019 06:28 AM

Yes. That was his dealership offer. Clearly he does not want it back.

rpickoff 06-28-2019 06:41 AM

That is quite a hit in a year and a half


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Autoputzer 06-28-2019 06:43 AM

He's hoping you're getting on a plane this afternoon to Bolivia before all the BOLO's make it to the TSA, and you're interested in a quick sale.

The high mileage is hurting you. High mileage hurts more than low mileage helps.

In general, annual deprecation rates (based on private sale prices) on cars driven 12k miles/year are:

25% of MSRP the first year.

20% of book value the years the car: goes out of warranty, becomes seven model years old, goes over 100k miles. (The last two are because financial institutions don't like lending money on these cars.)

15% the remaining years.


Trade-in values will be considerably less, as you have found out. BMW's tend to depreciate more than appliance cars.

Having a short automotive attention span is very expensive.

rpickoff 06-28-2019 06:46 AM

It is not my attention Span dear friend. It is mostly the “drivetrain malfunction” error message that drives me crazy. I take very long trips usually overnight and I can’t afford To break down


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Autoputzer 06-28-2019 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpickoff (Post 13039661)
It is not my attention Span dear friend. It is mostly the “drivetrain malfunction” error message that drives me crazy. I take very long trips usually overnight and I can’t afford To break down


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If something's reported during the warranty period and not fixed, it's still covered after the warranty has expired.

Maybe the dealership offered you such a low ball price because they don't want to deal with "drivetrain malfunction," either.

What do the engine error codes say?

rpickoff 06-28-2019 07:53 AM

“Crankshaft sensor signal missing” They were cleared and it hasn’t recurred. Wasn’t showing when it was appraised.


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quackbury 06-28-2019 02:22 PM

But if it was a BMW dealership, they have access to the service history, including the no-longer-displayed codes.

For a real world price, take it to CarMax.

rpickoff 06-28-2019 02:27 PM

It wasn’t a BMW dealer and they were all wholesalers. They all came up with the same number give or take a few hundred. I have sold my Bimmer. Tired of the expense, the error codes in a relatively new car that costs a fortune, the pricky dealers the ****ty run flat ride and the unbelievable depreciation. I think they are just not for me. A really expensive mistake. Thanks for all your help and guidance. A dieu!


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dzlbimmer 06-28-2019 02:30 PM

Original msrp on this car can vary by more than 15k. Stating your trade in offer without knowing your original msrp is leaving out a huge part of the puzzle for all of us.

caswcu 06-28-2019 06:38 PM

2018 with 38000 miles. The mileage is consider double whats ordinary. looks like a fair price https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBA4Z3C56JEC48743

kjboyd 06-28-2019 07:09 PM

Please explain how it cost you anything ? It’s still under warranty. No?

rpickoff 06-29-2019 02:10 AM

It’s a high cost per mile. I enjoyed driving it. I could afford it, just didn’t love it. MSRP was 61,500.


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rpickoff 06-29-2019 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by caswcu (Post 13040247)
2018 with 38000 miles. The mileage is consider double whats ordinary. looks like a fair price https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBA4Z3C56JEC48743



I suppose.


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dzlbimmer 06-29-2019 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by caswcu (Post 13040247)
2018 with 38000 miles. The mileage is consider double whats ordinary. looks like a fair price https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBA4Z3C56JEC48743

This car you linked to is a prior rental which hurts it's value, and not good for value comparison. Rpickoff got a low offer for a clean single owner avg build car, assuming that's what it was.

John MS 06-29-2019 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpickoff (Post 13040401)
It’s a high cost per mile. I enjoyed driving it. I could afford it, just didn’t love it. MSRP was 61,500.


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Keep driving it and your cost per mile goes down. Selling now means your overall cost of driving goes needlessly up.

kjboyd 06-29-2019 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John MS (Post 13040565)
Keep driving it and your cost per mile goes down. Selling now means your overall cost of driving goes needlessly up.



+1 or buy a Lexus. ;)

Autoputzer 06-29-2019 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John MS (Post 13040565)
Keep driving it and your cost per mile goes down. Selling now means your overall cost of driving goes needlessly up.

Yep, depreciation is the 800 pound, invisible gorilla in the room. Maintenance and repairs are usually trivial compared to deprecation in the first 100k miles, and even in the second 50k miles.

I look up the values of my cars annually. Quantifying the annual deprecation makes those occasional four-figure repair bills a lot easier to swallow. The most expensive repairs I had on a BMW and a Honda were headliner replacements.

rpickoff 06-29-2019 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjboyd (Post 13040595)
+1 or buy a Lexus. ;)



I just bought a Lexus 300 NX.


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caswcu 06-29-2019 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpickoff (Post 13040837)
I just bought a Lexus 300 NX.


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interesting change of pace

tex2670 06-30-2019 04:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpickoff (Post 13039621)
A dealer is telling me that my 2018 430 I asked convertible which is a year and a half old is worth $25,500 Trade In is that possible??? It has 38,000 miles


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What does Kelly Blue Book say? :dunno:

jjhebigscreen 06-30-2019 07:29 AM

Two side to Depreciation
 
Hello,

There is two sides to depreciation. If you buy new than depreciation on these cars is brutal. You need to know this going in. Some people will only buy new. Because depreciation on these cars is so bad it opens up a fabulous opportunity to buy lightly used. Its a lot more work to buy lightly used as you need to find the right car and do your due diligence. I looked for a while when I bought 1.5 years ago a 2014 435ix with 22k miles and 6 months factory warranty left for $29,500. This car stickered at $58,500. The car was close to as new. I enjoy my car immensely and will not take a huge depreciation hit.

chiefneil 06-30-2019 08:34 AM

If I was driving 38k miles per year, no way would I buy a new BMW or MB. I’d probably buy a used late model low-mileage Honda like a Civic and just drive it up to 150k.

Problem is that high miles kill German cars on resale. But high miles on a Japanese car, people are like “shrug it’s a Honda it’ll be fine”. Plus highway miles are a cakewalk for any car, so you’re not really risking mechanical issues - it’s all about the per-mile usage cost determined by acquisition and eventual sale/trade price.

bimmerbingo 07-01-2019 09:37 PM

26 Attachment(s)
They also offered me 25k for my 2015 435i xdrive with mppk, mpe and mpbk and 29k miles, which is only 2k more than what we got for our 2015 328i (27k miles) only 6 months ago when we traded it in for our x5 50i. The salesman called me a week later to ask me if I had reconsidered it, they keep insisting because they make a sizeable profit If their emotional scam succeeds.

jwalz1 07-02-2019 10:31 AM

This thread reminds me of a couple things. I saw a comment on one of the car blogs after a review of the new 3 series, and the poster said, "Why pay $65k for these when you can pick up one in five years with 45,000 miles on it and pay $10,000" It was a little hyperbolic but pretty close to true. I see lease returns on 340i's for in the mid 30's when they sold at about 60 new just 36 months later. With the unflattering reviews of the new 3 series, buying one new seems to be a really bad proposition. Lease or buy used.

Second, with the aforementioned poor reviews, following a poorly reviewed last generation, depreciation is only going to get worse. For me one of the appeals of getting a BMW was that they were more sport focused, and still offered a manual. Those two advantages are negligible to gone. A CLA 35 AMG is looking superior on paper to a new 3 series at this point.


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