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  #3051  
Old 05-15-2019, 09:20 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Here's a window sticker from an early Model 3 Performance model. You can tell because it shows the performance upgrade as a $5,000 option. This is the $5,000 that was later refunded. Add in $5k for enhanced autopilot and $3k for full self driving for a total of $81k minus the $5k later refunded for a net price to Tesla of $76k including destination and doc. Take off the $7,500 federal tax credit, and you're down to $68.5k. Please note that this was also with the most expensive color and interior. The image is large, so I'll just provide a link.
Link - http://i.imgur.com/FlRzLyu.jpg

If you go to tesla.com today and configure the same car with the autopilot and full self driving, the total is $68,900 without the destination and doc fee. Add in the $1,200 for D&D, and your total is $70,100. Take off the current $3,750 federal tax credit and you're down to $66,350. Please see the attached for the configuration I just ran on this on tesla.com.

So, net to net for the most expensive Model 3 you could buy back when the Performance models were first produced compared to its cost today, it is $2,150 cheaper now. Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper. You can only start to get to numbers like that by ignoring reality, specifically the facts that $5k was refunded for those who paid for the performance package and the tax credit was $3,750 higher.
The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:

1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
2. they did not configure FSDs but with EAP, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018, $81k - $3k = $78k), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, $70k - $6k = $64k).

Do note $81k and $70k are your numbers, not mine.

Now apply CA sales tax, and subtract fed credits::

In July 2018: $78k + $7.8k - $7.5k = $78.3k
In April/May 2019: $64k + $6.4k - $3.75k = $66.4k

Again, the out-of-pocket drop is $11k+, and that matched my calculation.

The key thing probably is if FSD(which is still not delivered?) is included or not, both for LR AWD and Performance comparison.

Plus the drop in MSRP already gives a $1k+ CA sales tax savings!

Last edited by namelessman; 05-15-2019 at 09:26 AM.
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  #3052  
Old 05-15-2019, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:

1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
2. they did not configure FSDs but with EAP, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018, $81k - $3k = $78k), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, $70k - $6k = $64k).

Do note $81k and $70k are your numbers, not mine.

Now apply CA sales tax, and subtract fed credits::

In July 2018: $78k + $7.8k - $7.5k = $78.3k
In April/May 2019: $64k + $6.4k - $3.75k = $66.4k

Again, the out-of-pocket drop is $11k+, and that matched my calculation.

The key thing probably is if FSD(which is still not delivered?) is included or not, both for LR AWD and Performance comparison.

Plus the drop in MSRP already gives a $1k+ CA sales tax savings!
Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.

Last edited by GregD; 05-15-2019 at 09:44 AM.
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  #3053  
Old 05-15-2019, 10:10 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.
To be fair, the clear headed Model 3 owners told me that $5000 refund also gives up free supercharging, so they said their preference is to keep supercharging, hence my number does not take that $5000 off.

Obviously nowadays there is no free supercharging(until Musk decides to spur demand again!), so the number may look different too.

OK, take that $5.5k refund off from $11.5k, so $6k out-of-pocket drop in my locales, so it is more than $2150, but less than $11k/$20k.

And it beats me how/why sales tax does not matter ....

So the truth is somewhere in between as usual!

Last edited by namelessman; 05-15-2019 at 10:23 AM.
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  #3054  
Old 05-15-2019, 01:35 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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I bought a LR AWD fairly early on, with the only option being the paint. The price was $55k to Tesla and before taxes and registration. Add in the $2,000 that I paid for autopilot in March and the total is $57k. After tax credits, my total purchase cost was $44,500.

Today, the exact same configuration is $52,100. After current tax credits, my purchase cost today would be $43,350, for a savings of $1,150 versus what I paid. I think a lot more people are in a situation similar to mine than the $8k to $20k you're stating.
An inquisitive mind in our lunch crowd picked up the numbers game(or apple-to-orange) played in the above paragraphs.

1. Instead of purchasing EAP for $5k early on, say, July 2018, the AP was added in March 2019 for $2k. That is a $3k savings due to the price drop.

2. If a brand new LR AWD is ordered in April/May, there will be another $1k(or $2k?) drop since AP is standard option and is included in base MSRP.

So technically the alleged $1150 savings has extra $4k to $5k savings on top of those who paid early adopter prices in July 2018. Including the sales tax delta, the $6k to $7k savings of my previous posts is legit!

That is a great move and congrats on the extra savings!
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  #3055  
Old 05-16-2019, 08:26 AM
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Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.
This is a worthwhile point to explore. From my perspective Tesla innovates in two tech fronts, first being BMS, second being FSD.

Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does. In fact, all 3 major battery suppliers(who spend billions on battery innovations) are non-US, the 4th upstart also is non-US. Tesla's main claim of fame(to me) is BMS, specifically they were first to seriously address wear leveling, plus maintain constant temp range. The core battery tech tough is not done by Tesla, instead the big 3 (and in coming years 4) non-US suppliers spend serious dough to get reliability, longevity, density improved over time. Even the cell versus pouch type trade-offs are not done by Tesla.

To be truly an innovative American company, Tesla probably should start battery R&D in-house, but frankly Tesla does not have enough cash to fund that, yet. For now, Tesla's success is benefiting lots of non-US jobs(which is what global free trade means anyway).

So how innovative is Tesla's BMS(and also battery module design and packaging)? Most Tesla fans believe they are state-of-the-art, and that is believable. The essence of BMS and packaging though do not have high enough tech moat, and plainly old school, meaning many can figure out and/or reverse engineer, and/or have been doing it in one form or another for decades in non-automotive applications. So there may not enough bleeding-edge innovation to keep Tesla way ahead for long.

On the second front of FSD(and AI), Tesla does have some tech moat, but there are also 100(or more) startups and upstarts and incumbents with various degrees of pros/cons, and financial might, chasing down the same pot of gold(plus poaching stuff left and right). More importantly AI(and FSD being one killer app) is non-trivial, and the Tesla God chip(which is out for a year now?) can become obsolete in 12+ months, so again it may not be innovative enough to help Tesla to stand head and shoulder above all others.

And being SV company, Tesla is subject to the destructive power of innovation anyway, and Tesla being 16-year-old on July 1 2019 probably is showing its age somewhat. 16-year is an eternity in SV.

Those are my thoughts on this subject.
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  #3056  
Old 05-17-2019, 12:40 PM
st_o_p st_o_p is offline
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Originally Posted by SR22pilot View Post
...

Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.

....
The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.

Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
(Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).

I really wasn't much of a Tesla fan - I kind of liked the company but that was about it. Once I bought one, and got a first-hand experience - that's when I got really impressed. It's by no means perfect - but it is very impressive. And that is when I started getting annoyed by the smear campaign against Tesla.

I fully understand - it is hard to make a man see a point if his paycheck depends on him not seeing it. But the efforts to destroy Tesla really rub me wrong - trying to kill a fantastic product, clean/sustainable future, and American production and technological lead - for narrow-minded self-interest.

Last edited by st_o_p; 05-17-2019 at 12:46 PM.
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  #3057  
Old 05-17-2019, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does.
Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
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  #3058  
Old 05-17-2019, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by st_o_p View Post
The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.

Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
(Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).

I really wasn't much of a Tesla fan - I kind of liked the company but that was about it. Once I bought one, and got a first-hand experience - that's when I got really impressed. It's by no means perfect - but it is very impressive. And that is when I started getting annoyed by the smear campaign against Tesla.

I fully understand - it is hard to make a man see a point if his paycheck depends on him not seeing it. But the efforts to destroy Tesla really rub me wrong - trying to kill a fantastic product, clean/sustainable future, and American production and technological lead - for narrow-minded self-interest.
In addition any industry that employs professional drivers is also going to be put out of business if/when Tesla manages to perfect full self driving. There are a lot of vested interests out there that have good reason to want Tesla to fail.
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  #3059  
Old 05-17-2019, 05:40 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
Q4 conference calls may provide some clues to inquisitive minds(subject to interpretation as usual).

Musk's comment:

“Well, there’s really 3 things: there’s the cell, the module, and the pack. We’ll be making the module and the pack, so it’s really just a question of cell supply. We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry."

The nitpicky commentatory:

"These kinds of fundamental cell chemistry research efforts are not undertaken lightly, and involve a great deal of effort and experimentation by highly trained scientists. It might, therefore, have seemed reasonable to believe that Tesla’s advanced cell chemistry know-how is a large part of the “secret sauce” that gives the company an edge in its market-leading EVs and energy storage products. But Musk’s comment that “We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry” suggests that much of Tesla’s technological performance and cost-efficiency edge comes from its module and battery pack design, engineering, and production assembly."

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/03...-do-for-tesla/

Tesla did file patents on battery tech, e.g.:

"Tesla also has filed patents on lithium-ion cell chemistry, such as the recent example of a patent disclosure which “includes two-additive electrolyte systems that enhance performance and lifetime of Li-ion batteries, while reducing costs from other systems that rely on more additives.”

The big 3 non-US battery suppliers have troves of IP's and patents of these battery cell techs, it is unclear if Panasonic also co-own these enhancement patents that Tesla files(one may need NDAs to get that info, and frankly won't comment on public chit-chat forums), or if these enhancement patents really are consequential enough.
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  #3060  
Old 05-17-2019, 06:23 PM
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Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
That is the NMC battery from Jeff Dahn.
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  #3061  
Old 05-17-2019, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
The big 3 non-US battery suppliers have troves of IP's and patents of these battery cell techs, it is unclear if Panasonic also co-own these enhancement patents that Tesla files(one may need NDAs to get that info, and frankly won't comment on public chit-chat forums), or if these enhancement patents really are consequential enough.
I thought that perhaps you had seen something that I hadn't, but apparently not. The bottom line is that we really don't know what degree of ownership Tesla may have in the battery technology, and you are making big assumptions to say that the technology is owned in full by Panasonic.
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  #3062  
Old 05-17-2019, 07:35 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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I thought that perhaps you had seen something that I hadn't, but apparently not. The bottom line is that we really don't know what degree of ownership Tesla may have in the battery technology, and you are making big assumptions to say that the technology is owned in full by Panasonic.
The comment is meant to address assertions from Tesla's fans that Tesla has tech moats around battery tech, but in reality that is not true, as Panasonic develops those cells for Tesla, with input from Tesla(i.e. Tesla's spec, and Tesla's enhancement feedback ).

In other words, Panasonic can build cells for Toyota(e.g.), and Tesla cannot stop that.

In the meantime, Tesla does plan to switch to other battery suppliers(e.g. Chinese, non-US) that can meet Tesla's spec, and Panasonic and other suppliers cannot stop that.
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  #3063  
Old 05-17-2019, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
The comment is meant to address assertions from Tesla's fans that Tesla has tech moats around battery tech, but in reality that is not true, as Panasonic develops those cells for Tesla, with input from Tesla(i.e. Tesla's spec, and Tesla's enhancement feedback ).

In other words, Panasonic can build cells for Toyota(e.g.), and Tesla cannot stop that.

In the meantime, Tesla does plan to switch to other battery suppliers(e.g. Chinese, non-US) that can meet Tesla's spec, and Panasonic and other suppliers cannot stop that.
Again, we really don't know what Tesla can or cannot do with regard to providing battery cells to other manufacturers. Obviously, they can't prevent Panasonic from providing cells with technology that was fully developed by Panasonic, but what if there was some technology developed by Tesla that gave their batteries 10% or 15% more durability or higher maximum discharge or charge rates or greater energy density. In that case, it all depends on what deal Tesla worked out with Panasonic. It certainly wouldn't be unreasonable of Tesla to insist that such improved cells could only be sold to Tesla. Now, I'm just speculating here, but so are you.
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  #3064  
Old 05-17-2019, 10:53 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Now, I'm just speculating here, but so are you.
That is fair, and normal, at a public chit chat forum, that supposedly is populated by amateurs!

But do note that Tesla has a Open Source Patent Pledge, e.g. let's assume Panasonic(not being co-owner) needs to be use Tesla's patents, then Panasonic needs to open up its patent troves to Tesla.

From another perspective, Panasonic and other big suppliers with their deep pockets and deep knowledge do not stand still, meaning they keep playing around with the periodic table to bring the next big thing to market, and that can quickly make Tesla's patents moot too.

Another food of thought for inquisitive minds is that, Tesla's recent battery patent application quotes Dahn's US patent(Dahn's non-US R&D is in 5-yr exclusive research agreement with Tesla that started 2015), which is a 3M patent that cites a long list of patents from non-US battery suppliers and R&D groups.

It is left to the expert insiders to digest how exclusive and/or enforceable Tesla's battery patents really are, and if that is actually used in Panasonic cells made in gigafactory versus contracted R&D for future cell development.

Last edited by namelessman; 05-18-2019 at 07:38 AM.
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  #3065  
Old 05-18-2019, 10:42 AM
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This is an interesting read about gigafactory. Can this have contributed to some of the unexplained Tesla battery fires? Fake or real news?

https://www.businessinsider.nl/panas...haotic-2019-4/

"On several occasions, something has fallen into one of the 16-foot mixers – which contain a blend of chemicals, including volatile lithium – inside the plant, three people with knowledge of the situation told Business Insider. That "something" – whether it be scissors, a roll of tape, a tool – is generally found when the mixer is being cleaned.

....

Greg Less, the technical director of the University of Michigan Energy Institute's Battery Fabrication and Characterization User Facility, told Business Insider that if a piece of shrapnel got into the lithium mix, it could pierce the separator between the anode and cathode and cause a hard short.

The shrapnel wouldn't have to be very big at all, either – a millimeter or half a millimeter – and it could be thin, the width of a human hair, or thinner, Less said. Conceivably, if the piece were long enough to pierce the separator and carry a current between the anode and cathode, it could cause a fire, he said."
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Old 05-18-2019, 10:57 AM
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In addition any industry that employs professional drivers is also going to be put out of business if/when Tesla manages to perfect full self driving. There are a lot of vested interests out there that have good reason to want Tesla to fail.
This reminds me of an article that talks about manufacturing moving operations from China back to Mid West in recent years for cost cutting reasons. This may sound illogical until further digging reviewed that most of these factories are almost fully automated, with just a few engineers to monitor. As American free enterprises (including those that employ professional drivers) dictate, human labor or not is usually a moot point.

Having said that, FSD and AI are really not easy, and quite some time away from mainstream, so your statements do not make sense to me.
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  #3067  
Old 05-18-2019, 11:15 AM
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Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage.
For a car forum and thread like this(and many others), there are 2 general types of posters.

1. Those that try to justify an acquisition to be made.
2. Those that try to rationalize an acquisition already made.

Most posts on this thread belong to the above two, except when some in either groups go overboard and become emotional.

And another common theme in this thread is, many center their views around their own experience(that's logical), while ignore how other's views, based on different experience, can be different from theirs.

Numbers do not lie, and consumers/customers behavior, and economic environments, can be elusive, that is a reality and fact of life.

As amateurish outsiders looking in, trying to make educated guesstimates what reality looks like, is an interesting undertaking, just keep the emotion in check and enjoy the experience.
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  #3068  
Old 05-19-2019, 10:02 AM
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This is a worthwhile point to explore. From my perspective Tesla innovates in two tech fronts, first being BMS, second being FSD.

Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does. In fact, all 3 major battery suppliers(who spend billions on battery innovations) are non-US, the 4th upstart also is non-US. Tesla's main claim of fame(to me) is BMS, specifically they were first to seriously address wear leveling, plus maintain constant temp range. The core battery tech tough is not done by Tesla, instead the big 3 (and in coming years 4) non-US suppliers spend serious dough to get reliability, longevity, density improved over time. Even the cell versus pouch type trade-offs are not done by Tesla.

To be truly an innovative American company, Tesla probably should start battery R&D in-house, but frankly Tesla does not have enough cash to fund that, yet. For now, Tesla's success is benefiting lots of non-US jobs(which is what global free trade means anyway).

So how innovative is Tesla's BMS(and also battery module design and packaging)? Most Tesla fans believe they are state-of-the-art, and that is believable. The essence of BMS and packaging though do not have high enough tech moat, and plainly old school, meaning many can figure out and/or reverse engineer, and/or have been doing it in one form or another for decades in non-automotive applications. So there may not enough bleeding-edge innovation to keep Tesla way ahead for long.

On the second front of FSD(and AI), Tesla does have some tech moat, but there are also 100(or more) startups and upstarts and incumbents with various degrees of pros/cons, and financial might, chasing down the same pot of gold(plus poaching stuff left and right). More importantly AI(and FSD being one killer app) is non-trivial, and the Tesla God chip(which is out for a year now?) can become obsolete in 12+ months, so again it may not be innovative enough to help Tesla to stand head and shoulder above all others.

And being SV company, Tesla is subject to the destructive power of innovation anyway, and Tesla being 16-year-old on July 1 2019 probably is showing its age somewhat. 16-year is an eternity in SV.

Those are my thoughts on this subject.
While you quoted my post you failed to address the point I was making and instead went off on innovation.

Whether Tesla is innovative or not, why do Americans root against it? I can understand a German trying to tear Tesla down but since when did the excitement for Americans come in rooting for the US company to fail.

You make some good points on innovation. Perhaps Tesla has nothing special. Then again, the EPA range on the S 100D just went from 330 to 370. That was without changing the battery pack. By contrast, the Audi e-Tron has an EPA range of 204 miles.The I-Pace is rated at 234 miles. Both vehicles are smaller than a Model S. The I-Pace isn't much bigger than a model 3 which gets 310 miles on a much smaller battery.

Back to my original point, I will admit that I root for Tesla. I want them to do well. I try to be rational about their issues but I do want them to fix their issues and succeed. I strongly suspect (no data to back it up) that both Mercedes and Audi and possibly Jaguar are losing money on their EV's. They feel the pressure to enter the market because of Tesla. If Tesla goes away, then I would expect the change to EV's to slow down. I believe we are in trouble with CO2. I took the time to go beyond the politicians and lobbyists and to look at some of the research papers. It scared the crap out of me and I want to see us clean up our act. Finally, I hate to see the loss of US technology and US industries. The Chinese are pushing EV's. We don't see them in the US. While we go merrily on our way buying pickups and big SUV's, Chinese manufacturers are improving their EV's. We laughed at little Japanese econoboxes until Toyota showed us what a quality car could be. I am very worried that the transition to EV's will be the opening the Chinese need to savage what is left of the US auto industry. I see companies like Tesla and Rivian as at least giving the US a shot to stay relevant.

Last edited by SR22pilot; 05-19-2019 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 05-19-2019, 10:19 AM
SteveinArizona SteveinArizona is online now
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Originally Posted by SR22pilot View Post
While you quoted my post you failed to address the point I was making and instead went off on innovation.

Whether Tesla is innovative or not, why do Americans root against it? I can understand a German trying to tear Tesla down but since when did the excitement for Americans come in rooting for the US company to fail.

You make some good points on innovation. Perhaps Tesla has nothing special. Then again, the EPA range on the S 100D just went from 330 to 370. That was without changing the battery pack. By contrast, the Audi e-Tron has an EPA range of 204 miles.The I-Pace is rated at 234 miles. Both vehicles are smaller than a Model S. The I-Pace isn't much bigger than a model 3 which gets 310 miles on a much smaller battery.

Back to my original point, I will admit that I root for Tesla. I want them to do well. I try to be rational about their issues but I do want them to fix their issues and succeed. I strongly suspect (no data to back it up) that both Mercedes and Audi and possibly Jaguar are losing money on their EV's. They feel the pressure to enter the market because of Tesla. If Tesla goes away, then I would expect the change to EV's to slow down. I believe we are in trouble with CO2. I took the time to go beyond the politicians and lobbyists and to look at some of the research papers. It scared the crap out of me and I want to see us clean up our act. Finally, I hate to see the loss of US technology and US industries. The Chinese are pushing EV's. We don't see them in the US. While we go merrily on our way buying pickups and big SUV's, Chinese manufacturers are improving their EV's. We laughed at little Japanese econoboxes until Toyota showed us what a quality car could be. I am very worried that the transition to EV's will be the opening the Chinese need to savage what is left of the US auto industry. I see companies like Tesla and Rivian as at least giving the US a shot to stay relevant.
+1. To add to the point, current US efforts to weaken the clean air standards will only prevent US based automakers from developing competitive products for the Chinese market which is the largest market. We should be developing statutes and regulations to strongly encourage the development of hydrogen and electric technology so that our automakers can be the leaders in this effort. Instead, our government will actually drive our automakers out of business.
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Old 05-19-2019, 11:36 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Whether Tesla is innovative or not, why do Americans root against it? I can understand a German trying to tear Tesla down but since when did the excitement for Americans come in rooting for the US company to fail.
It is unclear to me how exactly to delineate American versus German companies other than their HQ locations, given how global economy and free trade work these days.

E.g. Does rooting for a X5 made in SC, USA by American staff, with materials and equipment from all over the world, considered as American, or German?

E.g. Does buying a Tesla with Panasonic cells made in Japan, and Japanese patents on battery cell chemistry, considered as rooting for American?

Maybe Tesla will soon manufacture battery cells at Nevada with its Tesla's own patented cell chemistry, with raw materials, and sophisticated equipment from all over the world, with American labor .... plus concurrently manufacture the same cells(and cars too) at Chinese gigafactory with Chinese staff .... Is there a Euro/German gigafactory in the work too?

So if one roots for Tesla, is it rooting American, Chinese or German?
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Old 05-19-2019, 12:00 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Finally, I hate to see the loss of US technology and US industries. The Chinese are pushing EV's. We don't see them in the US. While we go merrily on our way buying pickups and big SUV's, Chinese manufacturers are improving their EV's. We laughed at little Japanese econoboxes until Toyota showed us what a quality car could be. I am very worried that the transition to EV's will be the opening the Chinese need to savage what is left of the US auto industry. I see companies like Tesla and Rivian as at least giving the US a shot to stay relevant.
That is a fair point. My previous post about innovation and misc. vaguely implies that, to stay relevant, tech companies need to build tech moats around themselves.

If US auto industry wants to stay relevant, the tech needs to be developed in US, backed by basic science R&D and patents from US (EV being battery or Hydrogen will be a different discussion, but let's stick with battery in this post).

It is unclear to me if that is actually happening, e.g. the latest Tesla battery cell chemistry patent application is from a contracted R&D team in Canada(albeit the top guys in the world), that cites patents from the same team, plus a library of patents from other non-US suppliers and R&D teams.

Does it mean US has no center of excellence for the foundation tech of EV, namely, battery cell chemistry? Does someone know how well does US fare in this area?
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Old 05-19-2019, 12:25 PM
SR22pilot SR22pilot is offline
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That is a fair point. My previous post about innovation and misc. vaguely implies that, to stay relevant, tech companies need to build tech moats around themselves.

If US auto industry wants to stay relevant, the tech needs to be developed in US, backed by basic science R&D and patents from US (EV being battery or Hydrogen will be a different discussion, but let's stick with battery in this post).

It is unclear to me if that is actually happening, e.g. the latest Tesla battery cell chemistry patent application is from a contracted R&D team in Canada(albeit the top guys in the world), that cites patents from the same team, plus a library of patents from other non-US suppliers and R&D teams.

Does it mean US has no center of excellence for the foundation tech of EV, namely, battery cell chemistry? Does someone know how well does US fare in this area?
Well, Tesla just closed the acquisition of Maxwell and the do support basic research in battery technology.
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Old 05-19-2019, 12:38 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Well, Tesla just closed the acquisition of Maxwell and the do support basic research in battery technology.
Yes that is a start, maybe a bit behind?

In the past DARPA was pretty active funding US R&D fundings in universities, but that does not seem to be the case anymore.

The biggest waves of US innovations are commercialization of military tech, e.g. wireless, processors, internet, semiconductor, etc, etc, and US govt were very much involved, but there is no such national initiative and leadership these days. Oh well ....
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Old 05-19-2019, 01:18 PM
SR22pilot SR22pilot is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
It is unclear to me how exactly to delineate American versus German companies other than their HQ locations, given how global economy and free trade work these days.

E.g. Does rooting for a X5 made in SC, USA by American staff, with materials and equipment from all over the world, considered as American, or German?

E.g. Does buying a Tesla with Panasonic cells made in Japan, and Japanese patents on battery cell chemistry, considered as rooting for American?

Maybe Tesla will soon manufacture battery cells at Nevada with its Tesla's own patented cell chemistry, with raw materials, and sophisticated equipment from all over the world, with American labor .... plus concurrently manufacture the same cells(and cars too) at Chinese gigafactory with Chinese staff .... Is there a Euro/German gigafactory in the work too?

So if one roots for Tesla, is it rooting American, Chinese or German?
You seem hung up on batteries that are made in Japan and ignore the Nevada Gigafactory. It seems to me that Tesla has worked to bring the technology to the US. I see actively working to bring technology in-house. I suspect Tesla would do more if they could afford to. Considering that the Bolt gets its entire drivetrain from LG, isn't it interesting that people focus on Tesla. Jaguar, Audi, Mercedes and others will get tax breaks that Tesla buyers won't. What did Tesla do wrong? The answer is that they were successful early and now the US government will help foreign companies play catch-up. No, I don't like that.

As for BMW, rooting for Tesla doesn't mean rooting against BMW. I was talking about cars made in Germany but, I made a mistake. I was thinking of the e-Tron which is made in Belgium. I do have a preference for companies founded here but, at times, they just aren't competitive (Ford). I find Tesla exciting because they are competitive.
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Old 05-19-2019, 01:24 PM
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acoste acoste is offline
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Yes that is a start, maybe a bit behind?

In the past DARPA was pretty active funding US R&D fundings in universities, but that does not seem to be the case anymore.

The biggest waves of US innovations are commercialization of military tech, e.g. wireless, processors, internet, semiconductor, etc, etc, and US govt were very much involved, but there is no such national initiative and leadership these days. Oh well ....

There are a lot of start ups. And automakers keep partnering up with them. BMW has partnership with several.

Here is one from Silicon Valley:

https://silanano.com/news/the-bmw-gr...tric-vehicles/
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