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  #801  
Old 05-09-2020, 10:23 AM
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Wow. Extremely narrow perspective there. Just two types? Of humans in America? Who really thinks like this?
  • Only pink? or only blue?
  • Only on or only off?
  • Only + or only -?
  • Americans either agree or disagree?
What happens when we offer only two choices to millions of wildly different people across different environments and understanding and language and experiences? Ohhh right. We get binary viewpoints (like this) that serve to divide us into the labels we so desperately try as individuals to shed. Even while asking other individuals to make a choice and be classified.

It’s not perfect. But it’s where this country is in November
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  #802  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
+1

According to the CDC's website, they aren't actually confirming each of the dead have or ever had the virus. That's been discussed within the thread as well, but I am unsure if the direct CDC reference was cited.
CDC provides annual US death numbers and leading causes of death. Average is around 60k a week, or 2.8m a year(per 2017 data).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

CDC also publishes the weekly excess deaths from COVID-19, and the data for first 3 weeks of April range from 72k to 79k per week.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#dashboard

So according to this data, there is excess of 12k to 19k of deaths per week caused by COVID-19, or 48k to 76k of excess deaths in the month of April, and that range is in the ballpark of the reported 79k COVID-19 deaths in US so far.
  #803  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:09 AM
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This trend is disturbing, and disruptive.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...=pocket-newtab
  #804  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:24 AM
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It's not perfect. But it's where this country is in November
More than 2 choices remain in November as they do for every American every day. To suggest otherwise serves to cheapen the human's need for nuance as a vehicle for progress. And it further divides. How often have we proven we'd rather pursue the easiest, least challenging human reaction: emotive struggle that divides and serves to destroy one another rather than build from differences.

Easy to throw up the hands, huff and puff and lament that's where we are. How many times have we seen THAT EZ button? Easy. And that's the point.

It's *not* easy to put our hands DOWN and get to work on finding the balance from great effort. This *hard work* rewards with a 3rd, yet unforeseen series of options. Digging in when we're losing is not insanity, it's idiocy. Reminds me of some advice I'll paraphrase: "If you look around and find yourself someplace you don't want to be, keep moving!"

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 12:05 PM.
  #805  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
CDC provides annual US death numbers and leading causes of death. Average is around 60k a week, or 2.8m a year(per 2017 data).
Easy to pick apart data from one year versus another and blah blah blah. That's been done here, too.

The point remains: This absence of confirmation leaves room for some recorded cases to be false positives. This necessarily includes the excess deaths from COVID. It simply must.

So to hang on the 'best guess' numbers as pure fact and truths- especially as the media would have us do- as some sort of indicator that we're winning or losing is further wrought with that same built-in fallacy. It just is.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 12:08 PM.
  #806  
Old 05-09-2020, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Easy to pick apart data from one year versus another and blah blah blah. That's been done here, too.

The point remains: This absence of confirmation leaves room for some recorded cases to be false positives. This necessarily includes the excess deaths from COVID. It simply must. So to hang on the 'best guess' numbers as pure fact and truths- especially as the media would have us do- as some sort of indicator that we're winning or losing is further wrought with that same built-in fallacy. It just is.
Unfortunately numbers are all the policy makers have in the fog of war, and as close to pure facts and truths as one can get at this moment.

One prudent option is to allow the battle-hardened pros to interpret the numbers and formulate the next steps. Plus people can self initiate to protect themselves and others as communities.

Another option to resume normalcy and jam packs 50k+ in a stadium with no change, just to test out of the fallacy that COVID-19 is business-as-usual, and let nature(i.e. the virus) runs its course. Is your choice to participate in this ballgame, or not?
  #807  
Old 05-09-2020, 12:44 PM
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Is your choice to participate in this ballgame, or not?
I doubt any of us made the choice to show up in the first place. But whether we choose to stay or not actually is the rare instance of a choice with definitive binary outcomes. However, one of those outcomes is not whether the game will be played when we're gone. There's a billion other choices that need to mix into that box of Cracker Jacks.

Take me OUT *to* the ballgame. Cause I'd rather be *in* it when I'm taken out *of* it.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 12:46 PM.
  #808  
Old 05-09-2020, 01:09 PM
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Take me OUT *to* the ballgame. Cause I'd rather be *in* it when I'm taken out *of* it.
No worries, that is the prevailing sentiment anyway.
  #809  
Old 05-09-2020, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Unfortunately numbers are all the policy makers have in the fog of war, and as close to pure facts and truths as one can get at this moment.

One prudent option is to allow the battle-hardened pros to interpret the numbers and formulate the next steps. Plus people can self initiate to protect themselves and others as communities.

Another option to resume normalcy and jam packs 50k+ in a stadium with no change, just to test out of the fallacy that COVID-19 is business-as-usual, and let nature(i.e. the virus) runs its course. Is your choice to participate in this ballgame, or not?
Yet the "models" have been wrong 100% of the time. Reminds me of the mantra of my computer programming classes back in the day (FORTRAN!)…. garbage in, garbage out.
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Last edited by ezaircon4jc; 05-09-2020 at 02:54 PM.
  #810  
Old 05-09-2020, 03:04 PM
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Yet the "models" have been wrong 100% of the time. Reminds me of the mantra of my computer programming classes back in the day (FORTRAN!)…. garbage in, garbage out.
We called them “one percent decisions” — and made them regularly.
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  #811  
Old 05-09-2020, 03:15 PM
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Yet the "models" have been wrong 100% of the time. Reminds me of the mantra of my computer programming classes back in the day (FORTRAN!)…. garbage in, garbage out.
At least the models are adjusted with new data sets, e.g. the CDC COVID-19 excess deaths versus "historical" death per week is tracked per state/county/city, so basically data in, data out.

Cuomo gave a straightforward answer of the math behind the model(s)@17:20:

  #812  
Old 05-09-2020, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
At least the models are adjusted with new data sets, e.g. the CDC COVID-19 excess deaths versus "historical" death per week is tracked per state/county/city, so basically (best guess) data in, (best guess) data out.
Fixed that for you. Just bc its the best data we have doesn't make it valid data. Especially when it is well documented that the deaths are based on ASSUMPTION. Not fact. The absence of it.

Reminds me of customers wanting to go into production with pre-production code. Do this and the doors fall off. Yet for a bunch of Americans demanding them, answers that absolutely cannot be correct are somehow better than none.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 03:23 PM.
  #813  
Old 05-09-2020, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Fixed that for you. Just bc its the best data we have doesn't make it valid data.
The CDC numbers are actual deaths, weighted to account for incompleteness(the April numbers with red "+" are weighted until final data in 2 weeks, 3 weeks, up to 26 weeks out).

How can reality be accounted for before "completeness" is available? The front line workers at NYC can address that.

"Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. "

And the "best guess" is explained as such:

"Completeness
To account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks, counts were weighted by the inverse of completeness. Completeness was estimated as follows. Using provisional data from 2018-2019, weekly provisional counts were compared to final data (with final data for 2019 approximated by the data available as of April, 9, 2020), at various lag times (e.g., 1 week following the death, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, up to 26 weeks) by reporting jurisdiction. Completeness by week, lag, and jurisdiction was modeled using hierarchical Bayesian models with spatial and temporal random effects. "
  #814  
Old 05-09-2020, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Best guess
No offense. It is what it is no matter how many words used to describe or justify what it is.

I wouldn't risk 7 astronauts' lives on this data and yet we're expected to hinge the risk to millions of others on it.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 03:56 PM.
  #815  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
No offense. It is what it is no matter how many words used to describe or justify what it is.
Candid and sincere discussion carries no offense.

A simple observation is, @NYC, with lock down and minimal traffic deaths and such, the hospitals(with extra help from field hospitals and ships) still almost got overran. That tells a lot about the actual death number above normal("historical") volume.

And it does not take long for the "+" best guess for April becomes official death numbers as under-reporting rolls in, per CDC reporting guidelines(2, 6, up to 26 weeks out).
  #816  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:13 PM
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Also check out this chart dated April [email protected] of all-cause deaths, it is as clear as data can get. The current data as of today can be even more dramatic and telling ....

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html

OK check this out(dated April 27), from March 11 to April 27, NYC death toll was 27k, which is 20900 above normal level.

Is this data clear enough?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html

Last edited by namelessman; 05-09-2020 at 04:20 PM.
  #817  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Also check out this chart dated April [email protected] of all-cause deaths, it is as clear as data can get. The current data as of today can be even more dramatic and telling ....

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html

OK check this out(dated April 27), from March 11 to April 27, NYC death toll was 27k, which is 20900 above normal level.

Is this data clear enough?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html
Many here violate science on a regular basis:


  #818  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:39 PM
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Many here violate science on a regular basis:
Exactly! And Science is the exact OPPOSITE of a best guess! Science does not charge forward from hypothesis to theory based only upon our best guess. We may get there by brute force and sheer willpower to disprove the null. But to arrive, we require much, much more than that.

If only headlines required the same.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-09-2020 at 04:50 PM.
  #819  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:48 PM
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Many here violate science on a regular basis:
No doubt numbers can be manipulated and/or interpreted many different ways, so inquisitive minds can get back to basics and question the fundamentals.

E.g. if NYC sees same number of deaths in April as previous months, but all deaths are lumped as COVID-19, then it will be BS.

E.g. if NYC sees 20.9k extra deaths above normal, then what are the causes of excess deaths? COVID-19 maybe one cause(and the argument of dying from vs. dying with), given a pandemic is running amok.

Note that the NYT article does say this, so after the fog of war is cleared, some can figure out what exactly happened to those 20.9k NYers in that 16 days.

"It is too soon to know the precise causes of death for New Yorkers in this period. Although many of the deaths not currently attributed to coronavirus may represent an undercount of the outbreak's direct toll, the broader effects of the pandemic might have also increased deaths indirectly. Throughout the city, emergency rooms have been overcrowded, ambulance response has been slowed, and many residents might have been reluctant to seek medical care because of fears of contracting the virus. Hospitals around the country have reported reductions in admission for heart attacks, one sign that some people may be dying at home from ailments they would survive during more normal times. "

Last edited by namelessman; 05-09-2020 at 04:51 PM.
  #820  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:58 PM
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Note that the NYT article does say this, so after the fog of war is cleared, some can figure out what exactly happened to those 20.9k NYers in that 16 days.
Sorry. Not buying it. Fog of war implies gunpowder and lack of clarity. What we have in front of us is a dead human that either does or does not have COVID 19. To suggest that the human died from a cause without confirming it is a false data point. I'm actually a little surprised. I don't give much into sanctity of the body or any of that, but sh!t. If my wife was poisoning me with lead and this sh!t cropped up, she'd be out free as a damn bird.

Which isn't so bad I suppose. I mean. What good is she being chained to me if I'm dead of Corona-Hammer-to-the-Head?
  #821  
Old 05-09-2020, 04:59 PM
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Exactly! And Science is the exact OPPOSITE of a best guess!
There is a rigorous scientific process to make best guess become fact. It does take time(e.g. 2, 4, 26 weeks).

Double-blinded randomized control trials, collecting under-reported data, taking educated guess which types of vaccines can work(and investing $$$$$), those are examples of rigorous scientific processes that originate from best guesses.

And throughout history, many best guesses did not work out.
  #822  
Old 05-09-2020, 05:04 PM
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I have found that the best guide to science is Karl Popper's The Logic of Scientific Discovery, first English edition 1959, my Rutledge Classics edition 2002. First published in 1935 in German Logik der Forschung by Verlag Springer.
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  #823  
Old 05-09-2020, 05:06 PM
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What we have in front of us is a dead human that either does or does not have COVID 19. To suggest that the human died from a cause without confirming it is a false data point. I'm actually a little surprised. I don't give much into sanctity of the body or any of that, but sh!t. If my wife was poisoning me with lead and this sh!t cropped up, she'd be out free as a damn bird.
It does take some planning to hide the deaths of 20.9k under the disguise of COVID-19.

From the NYT article, the city accounted for 16.6k out of that excess 20.9k deaths as COVID-19, someone may dig further to confirm every single one of those 16.6k had a positive COVID-19 test!

The NYT article does address a huge spike in deaths(20.9k excess), plus NYC had 4.3k excess deaths(among the 20.9k number) that were not tagged at COVID-19.

Maybe this extra 4.3k are untreated patients that passed away at home(and eventually got lumped as "probable COVID-19"?!?).

Last edited by namelessman; 05-09-2020 at 05:11 PM.
  #824  
Old 05-09-2020, 06:16 PM
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To suggest that the human died from a cause without confirming it is a false data point.
Also it is not just positive COVID-19 test, it is dying from vs. dying with. In the thick of gunpowder, NYC doctors probably did not have time to ponder on this fine point.

It may also be true 20.9k NYC patients that supposedly can die from April to Dec of 2020(e.g.), but their co-morbidity were accelerated by COVID-19.

If true then one may expect the annual NYC death toll will not change, but it will take time(as part of a rigorous process) to collect data till end of the year to confirm.
  #825  
Old 05-09-2020, 07:09 PM
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NY like China switched to counting probables to better track the spread. Both had a jump that fit the curve. These numbers are reasonably accepted by the scientific community:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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