Covid-19. Where's your head at on this??? - Page 34 - Bimmerfest - BMW Forums



Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > Everything Else > Off-Topic

Off-Topic
Everything not about BMWs. Posts must be "primetime safe" and in good taste. No personal attacks allowed. **Note** - Political posting is not allowed (or welcome) at Bimmerfest.

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #826  
Old 05-09-2020, 07:10 PM
zod zod is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: NC
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 492
Mein Auto: 1987 BMW 535is 2008 E64
Pandemic humor:
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
  #827  
Old 05-09-2020, 10:07 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by zod View Post
Pandemic humor:
And the latest plot twist is that Fauci + Hans + Redfield are now under 14-day self quarantine after exposure to COVID-19 positive person ....

Last edited by namelessman; 05-09-2020 at 11:06 PM.
  #828  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:18 AM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
30 year Mech E
Location: So Cal
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 205
Mein Auto: 2004 330i 2007 335i
I had this whole list of the nuances of what makes us 'Mericans not just two types but then I noticed I'd missed the entire page 33 of this thread. So...

https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/fi...4581511274.jpg

https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/w...4c66e__700.jpg

FWIW, I don't remember the government ignoring scientists in Airport, Towering Inferno, Airplane, Poseidon Adventure, 28 Hours Later or Titanic.

I'm torn on this THE 'RONA PANIC. I'm starting to settle into the increased time with my wife and kids, and I'm getting paid to sit on the couch driving solidworks and excel on a big flatscreen with 2 mouses. I know it can't last though and I am the type of American who can see the long term damage from the side effects of everyone staying home. Barbara Ferrer and Gavin Newsom are making less and less sense to me as they discuss what it will take to start returning to normal. I want this over yesterday.
__________________
-Wankel Boy 2004 330i 2007 335i 1991 300ZXTT 5 speed conversion

Last edited by wankel boy; 05-10-2020 at 01:44 AM. Reason: missed the entire page 33 of this thread.
  #829  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:59 AM
M3Inline6's Avatar
M3Inline6 M3Inline6 is offline
Law Enforcer
Location: In your rear view mirror....
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,330
Mein Auto: 2017 Indv. Nardo Grey M4
Quote:
Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
I had this whole list of the nuances of what makes us 'Mericans not just two types but then I noticed I'd missed the entire page 33 of this thread. So...

https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/fi...4581511274.jpg

https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/w...4c66e__700.jpg

FWIW, I don't remember the government ignoring scientists in Airport, Towering Inferno, Airplane, Poseidon Adventure, 28 Hours Later or Titanic.

I'm torn on this THE 'RONA PANIC. I'm starting to settle into the increased time with my wife and kids, and I'm getting paid to sit on the couch driving solidworks and excel on a big flatscreen with 2 mouses. I know it can't last though and I am the type of American who can see the long term damage from the side effects of everyone staying home. Barbara Ferrer and Gavin Newsom are making less and less sense to me as they discuss what it will take to start returning to normal. I want this over yesterday.


Agreed!


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app
__________________
  #830  
Old 05-10-2020, 03:29 AM
Doug Huffman's Avatar
Doug Huffman Doug Huffman is online now
Nuclear engineer
Location: Washington Island, Wisconsin, thru Death's Door
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 15,959
Mein Auto: CPO2012 X5 35d M57(E70)
Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases journal

A Critical Needs Assessment for Research in Companion Animals and Livestock Following the Pandemic of COVID-19 in Humans
Quote:
Abstract
Problem: The emergence of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, in November 2019 and a growing body of information compel inquiry regarding the transmissibility of infection between humans and certain animal species. Although there are a number of issues to be considered, the following points are most urgent:

The potential for domesticated (companion) animals to serve as a reservoir of infection contributing to continued human-to-human disease, infectivity, and community spread.

The ramifications to food security, economy, and trade issues should coronavirus establish itself within livestock and poultry.

The disruption to national security if SARS-CoV-2 and its fairly well-established effects on smell (hyposmia/anosmia) to critical military service animals including explosive detector dog, narcotics detector dog, specialized search dog, combat tracker dog, mine detection dog, tactical explosive detector dog, improvised explosive device detector dog, patrol explosive detector dog, and patrol narcotics detector dog, as well as multipurpose canines used by special operations such as used by the U.S. customs and border protection agency (e.g., Beagle Brigade).

This article presents in chronological order data that both individually (as received independently from multiple countries) and collectively urge studies that elucidate the following questions.

1. What animal species can be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the likely sources of infection, the period of infectivity, and transmissibility between these animals and to other animal species and humans?

2. What are the best diagnostic tests currently available for companion animals and livestock?

3. What expressions of illness in companion and other animal species can serve as disease markers?
[ ... MORE]
Tracey McNamara, Juergen A. Richt, and Larry Glickman.
Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases.ahead of print
http://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2020.2650
Online Ahead of Print:May 5, 2020
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vbz.2020.2650

https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=7316646
__________________
Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 05-10-2020 at 03:31 AM.
  #831  
Old 05-10-2020, 03:57 AM
Doug Huffman's Avatar
Doug Huffman Doug Huffman is online now
Nuclear engineer
Location: Washington Island, Wisconsin, thru Death's Door
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 15,959
Mein Auto: CPO2012 X5 35d M57(E70)
Epistemic Trespassing. Journal Mind, Oxford University Press

Epistemic Trespassing
Nathan Ballantyne
Mind, Volume 128, Issue 510, April 2019, Pages 367Ė395,
Quote:
Abstract
Epistemic trespassers judge matters outside their field of expertise. Trespassing is ubiquitous in this age of interdisciplinary research and recognizing this will require us to be more intellectually modest.
https://academic.oup.com/mind/articl...dFrom=fulltext

Sci-hub.tw hops paywalls

https://twin.sci-hub.tw/6666/840a7a0...cript-2017.pdf
__________________
Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 05-10-2020 at 04:41 AM.
  #832  
Old 05-10-2020, 09:36 AM
M3Inline6's Avatar
M3Inline6 M3Inline6 is offline
Law Enforcer
Location: In your rear view mirror....
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,330
Mein Auto: 2017 Indv. Nardo Grey M4
Covid-19. Where's your head at on this???

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
Epistemic Trespassing
Nathan Ballantyne
Mind, Volume 128, Issue 510, April 2019, Pages 367Ė395,
https://academic.oup.com/mind/articl...dFrom=fulltext

Sci-hub.tw hops paywalls

https://twin.sci-hub.tw/6666/840a7a0...cript-2017.pdf


So playing the Epistemic Trespassing devilís advocate.......



.....should people who arenít cops or who donít work in the field (...or a closely related field) be able to judge the actions of those who do from the comfort of their living room couches and armed with information the cops didnít know during the fluid, rapidly developing situation (...and from a 2D perspective)? I would wager that your answer is a resounding, ďYes!,Ē despite not having the relevant experience, training or ďstreet senseĒ (speaking generally, not referring to you personally).

We are thinking, discerning individuals. We question what doesnít make sense and attempt to educate ourselves as best we can, albeit informally.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app
__________________

Last edited by M3Inline6; 05-10-2020 at 09:43 AM.
  #833  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:11 AM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
30 year Mech E
Location: So Cal
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 205
Mein Auto: 2004 330i 2007 335i
Quote:
Originally Posted by zod View Post
Pandemic humor: (picture about disaster movies)
Zod, what was that from? I see a couple of nods to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but it also fits the more timely THE 'RONA PANIC.
__________________
-Wankel Boy 2004 330i 2007 335i 1991 300ZXTT 5 speed conversion
  #834  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:43 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
....someone may dig further to confirm every single one of those 16.6k had a positive COVID-19 test!
Let's continue the armchair analysis.

First, a correction, those 16.6k was from March 11 to April 27, so it was 47 days(NOT 16 days).

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...y-05102020.pdf

NYC does publish its raw data online, from March 11 to May 9(59 days), the numbers are as follows:

COVID-19 confirmed deaths 14753 (250 a day)
COVID-19 probable deaths 5178 (87 a day)
non-COVID-19 confirmed/probable deaths 13042(221 a day)

Then this page from NYC planning says there is a death ever 9.1 minutes, or roughly 158 deaths/day

One way to interpret the numbers is that, @one death per 9.1 minutes, NYC normal death toll should be 9322 in 59 days.

From NYC published data, NYC had 32973 deaths in 59 days, from March 11 to May 9.

Is the number clear enough?

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/p...ion-facts.page
  #835  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:51 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
This trend is disturbing, and disruptive.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...=pocket-newtab
Those that harass NYC doctors should carefully look at the numbers and explain those extra 23651 deaths that NYC doctors had to handle in last 59 days.

It can be true some organized crime syndicates carefully planned these 23651 excess deaths, but those are excess deaths nonetheless, so leave the doctors alone to do their jobs!
  #836  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:52 AM
PropellerHead's Avatar
PropellerHead PropellerHead is offline
Brevity= the soul of wit
Location: At the wheel of a bimmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 11,524
Mein Auto: You've*got*to be kidding
Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
.....should people... be able to judge...
Careful. Answering this question one way or the other is a judgement within itself.

Shoulda woulda coulda will always be here. The real rub is whether or not the individual being judged allows himself to be affected by it. In some formal cases, he has no choice. In the huge majority of informal interactions with one another, we are better served realizing that the judgement is a far more pointed reflection on the person who issues it.

In short, they can go fnck themselves.
  #837  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:58 AM
PropellerHead's Avatar
PropellerHead PropellerHead is offline
Brevity= the soul of wit
Location: At the wheel of a bimmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 11,524
Mein Auto: You've*got*to be kidding
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Let's continue the armchair analysis.
Ok.

The CDC is still reporting that they are guessing what's causing deaths. Not just in NYC, everywhere. And we will never, ever be able to say that the data supports the conclusion as reported because no confirmation exists that the virus was ever present- and thus was the cause- in a given input.

Analysis done.
  #838  
Old 05-10-2020, 12:21 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Ok.

The CDC is still reporting that they are guessing what's causing deaths. Not just in NYC, everywhere. And we will never, ever be able to say that the data supports the conclusion as reported because no confirmation exists that the virus was ever present- and thus was the cause- in a given input.

Analysis done.
Good analysis(or lack of? ), so let's forget about COV2 and COVID-19.

If so, experts, like M3Inline6(?), should figure out who/what caused 23k+ [email protected](and everywhere for that matter) in last 59 days. ;p
  #839  
Old 05-10-2020, 12:25 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Not just in NYC, ....
The quoted NYC deaths are with positive COVID-19 test results, so those are NOT guesses.

The CDC deaths numbers are weighted/projected based on actual reported deaths plus their algorithms to account for under-reporting.

Do note, per Birx/Fauci, CDC/public health folks just reuse flu tracking methodologies that have been in place for a long while(decades?), so this is proven tech used with new data sets from COV2/COVID-19.
  #840  
Old 05-10-2020, 12:42 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
I want this over yesterday.
Newsom's requirements are strict, on the other hand if ER is as empty and COVID-19 free as reported, those requirements may not be hard to hit.

Since local and county officials are negotiating with the state, my guess is that a compromise will be reached to relax further at local levels.

Many tech companies around here are planning partial reopen July(a few in June), some extend WFH policies till end of 2020.

Nonetheless, even without SIP, the retail/restaurants have been hard hit, so even with full reopen, it is unlikely people will return to business-as-usual going forward.
  #841  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:14 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Another worrisome trend is that Fauci and Birx have not been heard in public briefings for a long while(10+ days?!?), so what exactly do the numbers say/stay at this point?
  #842  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:19 PM
PropellerHead's Avatar
PropellerHead PropellerHead is offline
Brevity= the soul of wit
Location: At the wheel of a bimmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 11,524
Mein Auto: You've*got*to be kidding
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Good analysis(or lack of? ), so let's forget about COV2 and COVID-19.

If so, experts, like M3Inline6(?), should figure out who/what caused 23k+ [email protected](and everywhere for that matter) in last 59 days. ;p
That's the point. With incomplete testing for the virus, the truth behind the increase cannot be known for certain. If no testing was done, the truth will not be known by anyone, especially not some person on a message board.

And that is it. No matter the impetus behind the persistent reliance on poor data. CDC showing that they are relying on incomplete data input will always and forever be the reason the result lacks confidence. Asking again and again for an answer where none exists is what leads us down rabbit holes like this.
  #843  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:26 PM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
30 year Mech E
Location: So Cal
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 205
Mein Auto: 2004 330i 2007 335i
Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
So playing the Epistemic Trespassing devilís advocate
I'm advocate for the Epistemic Trespassing devilís advocate advocacy.

I have lived this having worked for 2 Bill Gates types. They thought they knew how to run startup companies spun out of a major accredited technology university. I went there too. I'm not rich and retired from my shares, nor am I "sooo smart".

Disney's most advanced robot head ever was so good, people seeing the video thought it was CGI. The mouth, jaw and lips were done by one of the best engineers I've ever met. The eyes, eyebrows and ears were done by a machinist, also one of the best "engineers" I've ever met. I agree with Doug's point- Bill Gates is not an epidemiologist but his success in tech makes him dangerous in medicine because he's Bill Gates.

I am exploring the flip side- You don't need to have a degree in some fields to be good in those fields. I've worked with machinists, technicians and "engineers" who for what ever reason couldn't finish college or never went. But they've learned by doing it, or taken online courses, whatever.

I used to hang out on 911jobforums. I know for some LEOs there is no love for FBI agents. Going to college, becoming an accountant and then spending 4 months at Quantico does not make you a good cop. You might think you are, but a vice Sargent or gang detective might not.

Similarly, I have heard that good Chiefs hold the Navy together. An officer fresh out of Annapolis maybe has some training but not the experience.

Feel the love! After all, Eric Garcetti loves you.
__________________
-Wankel Boy 2004 330i 2007 335i 1991 300ZXTT 5 speed conversion
  #844  
Old 05-10-2020, 01:56 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
That's the point. With incomplete testing for the virus, the truth behind the increase cannot be known for certain. If no testing was done, the truth will not be known by anyone, especially not some person on a message board. .
As mentioned previously, the NYC confirmed deaths are with positive COVID-19 tests. So there is no need to trust anyone on anonymous message board, instead look at the raw data and interpret yourself.

There are excess 23k(or 23651) deaths in NYC in past 59 days. So NYC detectives(experts like M3InLine6) should get on it and see what causes these excess deaths if not from COVID-19, assuming the NYC data and COVID-19 positive test results are NOT to be trusted.

NYC death numbers March 11 to May 9:

COVID-19 confirmed deaths 14753 (250 a day)
COVID-19 probable deaths 5178 (87 a day)
non-COVID-19 confirmed/probable deaths 13042(221 a day)

The CDC numbers should be just adding up numbers from all the states(at least that is what CDC says), so one can argue and demand to see positive COVID-19 test results from all those deaths.
  #845  
Old 05-10-2020, 02:04 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
IBill Gates is not an epidemiologist but his success in tech makes him dangerous in medicine because he's Bill Gates.
My take is that Gates is not running public health policies nor the medical R&D, he is basically supporting what the battle-hardened public health folks like Fauci and Birx came up with, and bridging the gap of govt initiatives(or lack of) through private companies.

In that regard, Fauci and Birx and Hans and Redfield and other public health people are the ones to listen to first.
  #846  
Old 05-10-2020, 02:09 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
So playing the Epistemic Trespassing devil's advocate.......
Yes, expert detectives are [email protected] to investigate 23k+(repeat, over twenty-three thousands) excess deaths in last 59 days, please help to solve these "open" cases assuming the virus does not exist as PropellerHead declared.
  #847  
Old 05-10-2020, 04:16 PM
PropellerHead's Avatar
PropellerHead PropellerHead is offline
Brevity= the soul of wit
Location: At the wheel of a bimmer
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 11,524
Mein Auto: You've*got*to be kidding
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
assuming the virus does not exist as PropellerHead declared.
Um. Whut?
  #848  
Old 05-10-2020, 04:44 PM
zod zod is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: NC
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 492
Mein Auto: 1987 BMW 535is 2008 E64
Quote:
Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
Zod, what was that from? I see a couple of nods to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but it also fits the more timely THE 'RONA PANIC.
The nuclear age starts here:


Jaws is a good fit for today and Dreyfuss is the scientist:




Stan Lee was known to ripoff Jack Kirby and others.


Last edited by zod; 05-10-2020 at 04:46 PM.
  #849  
Old 05-10-2020, 04:45 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Ok.

The CDC is still reporting that they are guessing what's causing deaths. Not just in NYC, everywhere. And we will never, ever be able to say that the data supports the conclusion as reported because no confirmation exists that the virus was ever present- and thus was the cause- in a given input.

Analysis done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Um. Whut?
".... no confirmation exists that the virus was ever present....".

Your post appears to imply CDC and NYC numbers are not to be trusted as COVID-19 related.

At the same time, the data set (at least from NYC) is tagged as "positive COVID-19 lab test".

So what additional confirmation is needed?

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...y-05102020.pdf
  #850  
Old 05-10-2020, 04:51 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,029
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by zod View Post
TJaws is a good fit for today and Dreyfuss is the scientist:
Is there a movie plot that says WH is business as usual when the enemy sneaks in?

Wait, is that what just happens while WH staffs get infected?!?
Closed Thread

See More Related BMW Stories


Forum Navigation
Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > Everything Else > Off-Topic
Today's Posts Search
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
© 2001- VerticalScope Inc. All rights reserved.