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  #851  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:04 PM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Is there a movie plot that says WH is business as usual when the enemy sneaks in?
Yes, that poor Gerard Butler... Every time he's looking after POTUS, someone tries to kill him. In Washington, in London, even with drones when he's fly fishing. Every. Time!

There were a couple Clancy novels with biologic warfare and a spy/assassin on his USSS Detail.

In Zombieland 2: Double Tap, the protagonists move into the White House.

FFS, it's "Don't Mess With Mom" weekend on lifetime, and what are my wife and the kids watching? Contagion.
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  #852  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:14 PM
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The nuclear age starts here: [ ... ] Jaws is a good fit for today and Dreyfuss is the scientist:
Jaws III (3D) story by Guerdon Trueblood, neighbor, raconteur and sometimes barroom pianist. A tip o' th' hat Guerdon, it was good to see you. He's 86 y.o. with co-morbidities
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #853  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
Yes, that poor Gerard Butler...
Outstanding Aufidius to Coriolanus, Caius Martius.
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #854  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:38 PM
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Cue Maureen Dowd:
Now the monstrous virus has invaded the Oval Office. Both the presidentís valet and a Pence staffer, Katie Miller, the wife of the racist Stephen Miller, who looks like he hasnít seen daylight in decades, have succumbed...


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/o...-vampires.html
  #855  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Good analysis(or lack of? ), so let's forget about COV2 and COVID-19.

If so, experts, like M3Inline6(?), should figure out who/what caused 23k+ [email protected](and everywhere for that matter) in last 59 days. ;p


Since when did I get that title?!? LOL! Iím just here for the patchwork analyses and the camaraderie.


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  #856  
Old 05-10-2020, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
Iím just here for the patchwork analyses and the camaraderie.
Same here.
  #857  
Old 05-10-2020, 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
...
I am exploring the flip side- You don't need to have a degree in some fields to be good in those fields. I've worked with machinists, technicians and "engineers" who for what ever reason couldn't finish college or never went. But they've learned by doing it, or taken online courses, whatever.


Similarly, I have heard that good Chiefs hold the Navy together. An officer fresh out of Annapolis maybe has some training but not the experience.

...
Some of the WORST Air Traffic Controllers were college grads. They could regurgitate memorized information, but when it came to outside-the-box thinking they were severely lacking. Fuzzy logic is critical. Ex-military were the best.


True story: We had a wet behind the ears ensign show up and he was assigned to the Engineering Dept. After a few days of trying to tell the Senior Chief how to run HIS engine room, he'd had enough. He went storming into the Captain's cabin and proceeded to tell the captain that if he didn't get that pimply faced, snot-nosed ensign out of HIS engine room he was going to quit! Mind you, we had top-10 seniority list Captains! The captain read the ensign the riot act and banned him from the engine room! When I left I was "only" a PO2, but we sure gave the ensigns assigned to our department (operations) a ton of grief!
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  #858  
Old 05-10-2020, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
Since when did I get that title?!? LOL! Iím just here for the patchwork analyses and the camaraderie.


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I'm just here out of boredom...
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  #859  
Old 05-10-2020, 11:50 PM
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Covid-19. Where's your head at on this???

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezaircon4jc View Post
Some of the WORST Air Traffic Controllers were college grads. They could regurgitate memorized information, but when it came to outside-the-box thinking they were severely lacking. Fuzzy logic is critical. Ex-military were the best.





True story: We had a wet behind the ears ensign show up and he was assigned to the Engineering Dept. After a few days of trying to tell the Senior Chief how to run HIS engine room, he'd had enough. He went storming into the Captain's cabin and proceeded to tell the captain that if he didn't get that pimply faced, snot-nosed ensign out of HIS engine room he was going to quit! Mind you, we had top-10 seniority list Captains! The captain read the ensign the riot act and banned him from the engine room! When I left I was "only" a PO2, but we sure gave the ensigns assigned to our department (operations) a ton of grief!


Itís the same thing in my line of work. While I never devalue education, it wonít make you a good street cop/detective. College canít teach you dynamic thinking in high stress/critical moments (...e.g....passenger bails out of a vehicle during a traffic stop with a gun in his hand, points it at you and runs into a backyard.....and youíve still got the driver in the car; people nut up fast!!!) and it surely wonít help you when dealing with/talking to/controlling MS13 street thugs. They can smell the lack of street sense a mile away.


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Last edited by M3Inline6; 05-11-2020 at 12:22 AM.
  #860  
Old 05-11-2020, 04:43 AM
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Fact-checking Judy Mikovits BA PhD, the controversial virologist by SCIENCE Mag .org

Fact-checking Judy Mikovits BA PhD, the controversial virologist attacking Anthony Fauci BA MD in a viral conspiracy video
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCIENCE
In a video [Plandemic https://plandemicmovie.com/ ] that has exploded on social media in the past few days, virologist Judy Mikovits BA PhD claims the new coronavirus is being wrongly blamed for many deaths. She makes head-scratching assertions about the virus-for instance, that it is "activated" by face masks.
[ ... MORE]
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...y-fauci-viral#
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 05-11-2020 at 04:49 AM.
  #861  
Old 05-11-2020, 05:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Your post appears to imply CDC and NYC numbers are not to be trusted as COVID-19 related.

At the same time, the data set (at least from NYC) is tagged as "positive COVID-19 lab test".
Sorry. I haven't paid attention to NYC as it is a smaller subset of the larger story ab the 'confirmed' deaths. The 'story' we're being mongered is being recorded by the CDC as 'suspected' cases yet blasted as if it's fact every where else. With this *fact* in place against the quality of the data, why all this fuss over one data input? How can one correct input change a Universe of flawed inputs?

I haven't looked and frankly don't see the point in discussing a segment of an over all flawed data set. If flaws like lack of testing for the presence of the virus exist as they clearly do in the data referenced by the CDC, the data is necessarily flawed. If NYC is doing what they can to make that flawed National CDC data that much better, more power to them. Their efforts are futile against the methods adopted and accepted as 'close enough' by others in the community. Certainly by reporters.

Let's be sooper clear about whether and where the data from the CDC suggests that they know where the virus does exist- and where they do NOT. No amount of wringing will allow NYCs data to close the unknown- they mean 'probable'- gaps in the national numbers:

Quote:
According to the CDC's website, they aren't actually confirming each of the dead have or ever had the virus. That's been discussed within the thread as well, but I am unsure if the direct CDC reference was cited.

CDC U.S. COVID-19 case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths.

This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement pdf issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

What is a COVID-19 probable case?
A probable case or death is defined by
  • Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or
  • Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or
  • Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-11-2020 at 07:28 AM.
  #862  
Old 05-11-2020, 08:26 AM
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Listening to WTMJ 620 AM Murkee Urinal Sentinel blowhard radio station this morning as I was running garbage and recyclables to the dump, I heard a commercial advertisement for yet another newly approved COVID genetics test. Part of the spiel was that "we must test all Americans."

A hypothetical benefit of this dumb mass hysteria pandemic pandemonium is that some may learn of statistical significance and specificity and sensitivity. The tout admitted a high false negative rate due to the speed of the test.
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #863  
Old 05-11-2020, 08:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
Part of the spiel was that "we must test all Americans."
I'd think this is a slippery slope (get it!) for the purveyors of pandemonium. The more tests, the more survivors and the more closely this starts to look like a bad (whisper) 'flu'. If they learned nothing from previous efforts at sustained marketing, it was that the ole friendly word 'flu' didn't work. The spooky initials that no one understood? Pass.

But oh, holy sh!t. Call it (what it has always been, of course) a VIRUS! and all the people who bought iPads to get AWAY from viruses suddenly start clicking on stories. Unsure of the marketing behind the effort for sustained relevance by the media? I give thee... 'Murder hornets' Geebus.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-11-2020 at 08:41 AM.
  #864  
Old 05-11-2020, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
I'd think this is a slippery slope (get it!) for the purveyors of pandemonium. The more tests, the more survivors and the more closely this starts to look like a bad (whisper) 'flu'. If they learned nothing from previous efforts at sustained marketing, it was that the ole friendly word 'flu' didn't work. The spooky initials that no one understood? Pass.

But oh, holy sh!t. Call it (what it has always been, of course) a VIRUS! and all the people who bought iPads to get AWAY from viruses suddenly start clicking on stories. Unsure of the marketing behind the effort for sustained relevance by the media? I give thee... 'Murder hornets' Geebus.


Bravo!!!!


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  #865  
Old 05-11-2020, 12:29 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Sorry. I haven't paid attention to NYC as it is a smaller subset of the larger story ab the 'confirmed' deaths. The 'story' we're being mongered is being recorded by the CDC as 'suspected' cases yet blasted as if it's fact every where else. With this *fact* in place against the quality of the data, why all this fuss over one data input? How can one correct input change a Universe of flawed inputs?
That is a fair question, why look at NYC? Well, maybe NYC takes the blunt of the death tolls?

Let's look at the latest CDC provisional datasheet(dated May 11, updated daily):

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

In the second table, NYC is listed out as a separate entry, with 13942 as U07.1 code. It is stated:

"When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death Ė or when it is listed as a ďprobableĒ or ďpresumedĒ cause ó the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation."

The total U07.1 to date (starting Feb 1) is 49,867 only, which is a lot less than 79k+ US COVID-19 deaths as reported. However, the 13492 NYC number matches up closely with NYC's lab confirmed COVID-19 cases, and makes up 28% of that 49867 numbers(of confirmed + probable).

My take is that as time progresses, various jurisdictions/municipalities will continue to report accurate(updated) confirmed death number to CDC, and the table will eventually show "confirmed" column, and "probable" column separately.

So while CDC numbers are still provisional(data still trickling in, test results not published), NYC numbers look like a rosetta stone to gauge the extent of outbreak so far.
  #866  
Old 05-11-2020, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
The more tests, the more survivors and the more closely this starts to look like a bad (whisper) 'flu'.
COV2 can be called a flu, or death of unknown cause, or co-morbidity accelerator, etc, etc.

Without drug nor vaccine nor clear understanding of pathogenesis, this "flu" did cause 23k+ excess [email protected] in 59 days amidst shelter-in-place, that should provide some idea what this "flu" is capable of.
  #867  
Old 05-11-2020, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
FFS, it's "Don't Mess With Mom" weekend on lifetime, and what are my wife and the kids watching? Contagion.
Well unfortunately life imitates art.

As much as the desire to will ourselves back to normality, the "flu" says not so fast.

As Fauci said, timetable is set by the "flu".
  #868  
Old 05-11-2020, 01:00 PM
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Fact-checking Judy Mikovits BA PhD, the controversial virologist attacking Anthony Fauci BA MD in a viral conspiracy video
Some colleagues at work suggested that DPA should have been deployed in Jan to make billions of surgical masks(and stop shipment of 2.5 billion masks to China in Jan) for US public usage, such that the shutdowns and lives and economic tolls could have been saved.

Given the stigma and beating up and gunshots and body slams and heated confrontations regarding masks, it may very well be a swap between mask-induced casualties versus COVID-19 ones as far as public health is concerned.
  #869  
Old 05-11-2020, 01:34 PM
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Breaking news, masks are now required at West Wing.
  #870  
Old 05-11-2020, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Given the stigma and beating up and gunshots and body slams and heated confrontations regarding masks
Where is all of this happening? Ohh right:

In the NEWS MAN! THE NEWS! the WORLD is SCARY! PEOPLE are the enemy! DON'T (we won't let you) FORGET IT! PLEASE! PLEASE! For the love of knowing all the bad scary sh!t we like to say we're dooty bound to tell you.. PLEASE understand that some guy POed in the US is WAY WAY the model for errbody! THEY ALL CRAY! An.. what's this? It happened MORE than ONCE! Aughghghghgghgh!!!!

Or some other headline.

Last edited by PropellerHead; 05-11-2020 at 02:26 PM.
  #871  
Old 05-11-2020, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Where is all of this happening? Ohh right:

In the NEWS MAN! THE NEWS!
The news captures a few, and amplifies somewhat.

At this moment, given the lessons learnt and tuition(i.e. lives) paid, the resistance to mask wearing has reduced a lot.

The same cannot be said in Jan when no one takes this "flu" seriously.

Last edited by namelessman; 05-11-2020 at 02:51 PM.
  #872  
Old 05-11-2020, 03:17 PM
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Covid-19. Where's your head at on this???

Quote:
Originally Posted by PropellerHead View Post
Where is all of this happening? Ohh right:

In the NEWS MAN! THE NEWS! the WORLD is SCARY! PEOPLE are the enemy! DON'T (we won't let you) FORGET IT! PLEASE! PLEASE! For the love of knowing all the bad scary sh!t we like to say we're dooty bound to tell you.. PLEASE understand that some guy POed in the US is WAY WAY the model for errbody! THEY ALL CRAY! An.. what's this? It happened MORE than ONCE! Aughghghghgghgh!!!!

Or some other headline.


I was going to ask that same question because I havenít observed a single criminal occurrence over a mask nor have I arrested anybody over a crime that occurred where a mask was the impetus. We havenít received any bulletins or special notifications from any other agency (...a regular occurrence when an agency or agencies is/are dealing with an issue, thus, notifying surrounding agencies in an attempt to collaborate or forewarn). In fact, the one thing that HASNíT happened is/are riots or other person-on-person crimes related to COVID. We expected, and prepared for, riots and looting at the onset (...and my department, along with LAPD and other surrounding departments, ďthreatenedĒ the dreaded 12-on/12-off schedule adjustment; basically....work 12, off 12, no days off.....AT ALL, with no end date), but it never happened. People have actually been nice to each other for the most part.


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Last edited by M3Inline6; 05-11-2020 at 03:23 PM.
  #873  
Old 05-11-2020, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
People have actually been nice to each other for the most part.
CA has been good, e.g. our locales have 20-30% mask wearing starting Jan and keep increasing(almost 100% now in stores).

So people have mostly self initiated(even before public health/govt intervention).

And when a few acted up, what could be done with a bunch of people with and without masks staring at them? It looks like strength in numbers and silence treatment work.

On park trails though people tend to ignore social distancing and masks, so our household just adjust hours and locations to avoid the crowd.

Last edited by namelessman; 05-11-2020 at 03:34 PM.
  #874  
Old 05-11-2020, 03:32 PM
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Annals of Internal Medicine. American College of Physicians.

The Urge to Build More Intensive Care Unit Beds and Ventilators: Intuitive but Errant FREE open source full text
Quote:
[ ... ] Before COVID-19, the United States had more ICU beds and ventilators per capita than nearly any other country (2). Indeed, an assessment of ICU occupancy and ventilator use revealed that during noncrisis times, the United States has a glut of critical care resources. In any given hour, only two thirds of ICU beds are occupied and only one third are occupied by patients receiving mechanical ventilation (3). Although these numbers have been starkly different during the COVID-19 crisis, they highlight our substantial existing capacity to care for those most likely to benefit from critical care.
[ ... MORE]
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-2071

End of January and early February, Milady Wife was kept in Neurological service ICU for available beds rather than Occupational / Rehabilitation Therapy service where beds were not available.

Once the dumb mass hysteria pandemic pandemonium has passed then these resources will become an expense and a sunk-money loss.
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 05-11-2020 at 03:35 PM.
  #875  
Old 05-11-2020, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Inline6 View Post
People have actually been nice to each other for the most part
Shhh! That kinda crap cant sow dissonance and lead everyone else into our own, lonely misery where we seek the one thing misery loves. Company! It sure as hell can't sell adds.
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