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  #26  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:58 PM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
Baffling in its instruction or in its plain folks language? Masks are virtue signaling and of no effect in preventing spread of any virus.

We agree 90%. I could be convinced the mask could help prevent me giving COVID-19 to you if I am wearing it. For the rest of it I would just like a definitive answer for everyone else to what I already know. Do they protect the wearer from infection? For COVID-19, for the flu, for Sars, for all of it. I know they do not, but someone in authority should make a clear statement.

Telling everyone to stop buying masks because they don't work and healthcare workers need them more than the rest of us only raises more questions which SGUS did not answer in the subsequent tweet.

For example I wouldn't want my surgeon's sneeze spraying my open surgical site. That's a compelling reason to explain the hypocritical advice.

The plain folks language was merely disappointing. Seriously, people.
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  #27  
Old 03-02-2020, 04:24 PM
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Masks are largely only effective in preventing those who are already sick from expelling aerosolized droplets containing the virus into their surrounding environment by coughing and sneezing.

Nothing short of a Racal suit (or some other form of PAPR apparatus) is going to provide uninfected individuals with real protection against an airborne virus.
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  #28  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by JamesWWIII View Post
Masks are largely only effective in preventing those who are already sick from expelling aerosolized droplets containing the virus into their surrounding environment by coughing and sneezing.

Nothing short of a Racal suit (or some other form of PAPR apparatus) is going to provide uninfected individuals with real protection against an airborne virus.
Agree a simple surgical mask CAN reduce droplets...



However... if you were caring for a sick family member (and trying not to get infected) you would NOT wear a mask?????

Personally, a mask combined with other measures is a reasonable part of a protection system. Just clamping a mask on every day on the daily commute is pointless. The confusing guidance people are hearing is due to the unspoken "here is how most will use them' versus 'here is how masks, properly used as a component in a protection system can be effective"

IMO
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Last edited by ard; 03-02-2020 at 06:21 PM.
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  #29  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
SGUS has had no gravitas since Joycelyn Elders.
I Really hope that you are kidding...

On the up side, my wife pointed out a satellite shot of China this morning that showed a whole lot less smog than they had several weeks ago...
  #30  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:54 AM
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HCP Standards for CoViD-19 patients. Beyond masks

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...endations.html

Beyond masks, eye shields, negative pressure, proper PPE procedures (quite similar to what I practiced and annually certified).
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  #31  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by ard View Post
However... if you were caring for a sick family member (and trying not to get infected) you would NOT wear a mask?????
I wouldn't even try to care for a family member infected with Covid-19, because I'm not equipped to do so. I'd get them to a primary care facility with AIIR units as quickly as possible for diagnosis and treatment. I'd try to ensure they were wearing some type of mask up until that point.

The list of PPE required to care for a person infected with Covid-19 extends beyond a face mask. Thinking otherwise is how outbreaks like this spread.
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  #32  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:38 PM
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What nonsense! Care for any virus is largely supportive. People die in hospitals!

Quote:
Originally Posted by CDC
There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19. People with COVID-19 should receive supportive care to help relieve symptoms. For severe cases, treatment should include care to support vital organ functions. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...treatment.html
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 03-03-2020 at 01:16 PM.
  #33  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
What nonsense! Care for any virus is largely supportive. People die in hospitals!
What nonsense! People die in their homes of treatable illnesses, too. All the time. And often the words of grieving family members are something along the lines of "he didn't seem that sick" or "we thought it was just a bug" or "wish we'd gone to see a doctor sooner".

Also, I'd love to see the the home equipped to give supportive care to someone suffering with viral pneumonia. My 76-year old father just had the flu the other week, and guess what happened while my mother was giving him supportive care? She got the flu as well. Not the end of the world with influenza (though it's a crap shoot at their age), but I'd hate to see people start rolling the dice with a SARS virus.
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  #34  
Old 03-03-2020, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by JamesWWIII View Post
What nonsense! People die in their homes of treatable illnesses, too. All the time. And often the words of grieving family members are something along the lines of "he didn't seem that sick" or "we thought it was just a bug" or "wish we'd gone to see a doctor sooner".

Also, I'd love to see the the home equipped to give supportive care to someone suffering with viral pneumonia. My 76-year old father just had the flu the other week, and guess what happened while my mother was giving him supportive care? She got the flu as well. Not the end of the world with influenza (though it's a crap shoot at their age), but I'd hate to see people start rolling the dice with a SARS virus.
Did you read the linked CDC recommendation? Home preparation recommendations https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-COVID-19.html

Influenza has a much higher mortality than SARS (< 1000 died world wide) or MERS (< 1,000 died world wide). SARS and MERS are only the two most recently emerged coronavirus zoonoses, generally coronavirus is considered a cause of the 'common cold'. The CDC suggests that many Americans have had traditional CoViD.

Like the President was, you may be surprised that influenza kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. My influenza vaccinations are up to date as are my pneumonia. I declined influenza vaccination through my adult life until I saw H1N1 mutate far from the flu that I had as a child. I'm 71 y.o. and Milady Wife is 81 y.o.and she still refuses influenza vaccination. She bicycled 20 miles with me today.
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 03-03-2020 at 01:37 PM.
  #35  
Old 03-03-2020, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
Did you read the linked CDC recommendation? Influenza has a much higher mortality than SARS (< 1000 died world wide) or MERS (< 1,000 died world wide). SARS and MERS are only the two most recently emerged coronavirus zoonoses, generally coronavirus is considered a cause of the 'common cold'. The CDC suggests that many Americans have had traditional CoViD.

Like the President was, you may be surprised that influenza kills tens of thousands of Americans every year.
Are you talking about the linked CDC recommendation that states: "People who think they may have been exposed to COVID-19 should contact their healthcare provider immediately."

And are we talking about the same CDC who had a high-ranking official stoke the fires of a panic over this virus just the other week? With such quotables as, “It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country anymore but a question of when this will happen — and how many people in this country will have severe illness.” And, “The disruption of daily life might be severe. We want to make sure the American public is prepared.”

I'm not surprised to hear about influenza deaths, because I have a Ph.D. in microbiology. Your figures concerning mortality due to SARS and MERS are also quite misleading. Yes, there were relatively small numbers of deaths due to those outbreaks, but we should be thankful they didn't spread as quickly or easily as Covid-19, because the case-fatality rate for SARS was 9.6% and the CFR for MERS was a frightening 34.4%, making both of these coronaviruses a bit more serious for infected individuals than the 'common cold'. The CFR for Covid-19 looks as though it will likely settle in around 1-3%. In comparison, the CFR for most seasonal influenza outbreaks tends to be measured in tenths of a percent, and even those measurements are likely overstated due to the large number of individuals who do not report or seek treatment for flu infection.

Glad to hear that you and the missus are healthy and doing well, but I wouldn't play around with Covid-19 if it happens to pay a visit to your household, because based on reports from Chinese health authorities, the most significant risk factor for dying from the illness is age. According to China's CDC, people above the age of 80 have a 14.8% chance of dying from the disease; people in their 70s, 8%; people in their 60s, 3.6%; and people in their 50s, 1.3%. Once below this age range, the risk of dying drops to between 0.2 and 0.4%. Again, as with the flu, these figures could be inflated due to the fact that a plethora of mild cases likely aren’t being reported.
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  #36  
Old 03-03-2020, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by JamesWWIII View Post
... because I have a Ph.D. in microbiology..
Unprovable claims of degrees expertise are moot. My citation of my authority From NS 0989-028-5000 is as meaningless. As is my IQ.

That’s why I carefully cited my sources.
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Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #37  
Old 03-03-2020, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
Unprovable claims of degrees expertise are moot. My citation of my authority From NS 0989-028-5000 is as meaningless. As is my IQ.

That’s why I carefully cited my sources.
So I have to prove I completed my doctorate for you to believe that I actually have knowledge of the scale of influenza deaths?

Yeah, I think I'm finished trying to have a reasoned discussion with you. Enjoy selectively believing whatever the government (CDC) tells you concerning this viral outbreak. Hope that works out for you and your old lady.
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  #38  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:11 PM
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It is not possible to prove. An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or argumentum ad verecundiamis a fallacious argument unless both sides admit to the authority.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Sagan
One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority." ... Too many such arguments have proved too painfully wrong. Authorities must prove their contentions like everybody else. Sagan, Carl (July 6, 2011). The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark. Ballantine Books. ISBN 9780307801043
But thank you for your good wishes.
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Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #39  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:27 PM
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It is not possible to prove. An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or argumentum ad verecundiamis a fallacious argument unless both sides admit to the authority.
And yet this is exactly what you did by linking to that CDC webpage to buttress your argument about not seeking hospital care for Covid-19 acquired viral pneumonia. That wasn't a peer-reviewed article (which is in itself another form of scientific authority) it was simply an informational page placed online by the government's "authority" on infectious diseases. I don't recognize the authority of a governmental organization that is currently sending mixed messages to the public, some of which may be politically motivated in an election year.
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  #40  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:43 PM
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I'm not surprised to hear about influenza deaths, because I have a Ph.D. in microbiology. Your figures concerning mortality due to SARS and MERS are also quite misleading. Yes, there were relatively small numbers of deaths due to those outbreaks, but we should be thankful they didn't spread as quickly or easily as Covid-19, because the case-fatality rate for SARS was 9.6% and the CFR for MERS was a frightening 34.4%, making both of these coronaviruses a bit more serious for infected individuals than the 'common cold'. The CFR for Covid-19 looks as though it will likely settle in around 1-3%. In comparison, the CFR for most seasonal influenza outbreaks tends to be measured in tenths of a percent, and even those measurements are likely overstated due to the large number of individuals who do not report or seek treatment for flu infection.
I realize you aren't an epidemiologist, but is my estimate of a BSL-3 virus reasonably accurate? I ask because I was using forecasting principles to establish a comparison class. Johns Hopkins sponsors an ongoing disease prediction competition at Hypermind: https://prod.lumenogic.com/jhchs/auth/hmlogin.html if you have a taste for the game.
  #41  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:51 PM
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Don't TOUCH GAS PUMP HANDLES. It harbors more germs than anything else. Google it....
  #42  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:03 PM
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I realize you aren't an epidemiologist, but is my estimate of a BSL-3 virus reasonably accurate? I ask because I was using forecasting principles to establish a comparison class. Johns Hopkins sponsors an ongoing disease prediction competition at Hypermind: https://prod.lumenogic.com/jhchs/auth/hmlogin.html if you have a taste for the game.
BSL-3 laboratories typically work with microbes that can cause serious or potentially lethal disease through the route of inhalation. SARS and MERS coronaviruses are categorized as BSL-3 agents, so I have no reason to believe that Covid-19 would be any different.
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  #43  
Old 03-04-2020, 06:29 AM
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“Compare and contrast CoViD-19 with influenza” search found this. Interesting.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu At Johns Hopkins Medicine.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 03-04-2020 at 06:31 AM.
  #44  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:46 PM
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After 2 months, only 150 are infected in USA out of 330 million?
  #45  
Old 03-05-2020, 10:14 AM
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After 2 months, only 150 are infected in USA out of 330 million?
1. Almost surely it is WAY more than 130. Could literally be thousands.
2. We have only had widespread testing for a few days. A FEW DAYS. Not months. Up until March 1, I believe CDC had only tested 1526 tests as of march 4. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.)
3. There has been no widespread surveillance testing. On the CDC telcon briefing of 2/28, CDC was announcing they PLAN to start surveillance testing in 6 cities/metro areas, but it hadn't started as of the call.
4. CDC finally relapsed testing kits this past weekend to state and local levels.... prior to that it was hit or miss, or send it to CDC ..maybe.

5. The spread in the USA, "only 130 out of 339 million" may in fact be precisely like Wuhan! The disease in Wuhan spread for weeks and months as Chinese officials failed to detect...then ignored...then covered up the issue. People were getting sick, a fraction going to hospital - it was spreading- before attention was paid. Now, we know this- so in the USA it isn't a matter of lack of attention- but the geometric spread may be similar.

CDC has screwed the pooch in their testing screw up, no question. IMO we needed to have a standing team at the whitehouse level in homeland security that deals with pandemic preparation.

Also, on just a lay level, I had expected more cases by now- I had expected a very large and rapid rise. Just what my gut was saying. Will we see that in the next few weeks?

If we DO dodge a bullet, at least with this first wave- and it gives us a shot at a vaccine for next year, you can be 100% sure that the media and 'deep state' will be villainized as 'over reacting' and 'agenda driven'. The dodging of the bullet WILL be due to the strident warning and early 'over reaction'. Just speculating here. Its how public health works.

You don't wait until 6 million are dead out of 330,million to write the headline "Coronavirus has 2% mortality rate".
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Alignment here: The Definitive Alignment Thread

OE is Original Equipment aka 'BMW Original Parts' aka 'What you buy at the BMW dealer with a BMW label'

OEM is Original Equipment Manufacturer... EITHER the company that made the OE part or.... A part this is identical to the OE part, but is sold by the OEM under their own label


OEM is not what BMW sells


http://www.bimmerzone.com/category/T...ricks_OEM.html

https://www.turnermotorsport.com/t-OEvsOEM

Last edited by ard; 03-05-2020 at 12:21 PM.
  #46  
Old 03-05-2020, 12:11 PM
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You don’t wait until 6 million are dead out of 330,million to write the headline “Coronavirus has 2% mortality rate”.
So you believe it's likely that 100% of the population of the USA will ultimately be infected by this virus?
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  #47  
Old 03-05-2020, 12:20 PM
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So you believe it's likely that 100% of the population of the USA will ultimately be infected by this virus?
Of course not.

I was pointing out the stupidity of only being alarmed once we know the ultimate infection spread and rate.

It was just an example using the post above that quoted ‘110 cases out of 330 million’
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Alignment here: The Definitive Alignment Thread

OE is Original Equipment aka 'BMW Original Parts' aka 'What you buy at the BMW dealer with a BMW label'

OEM is Original Equipment Manufacturer... EITHER the company that made the OE part or.... A part this is identical to the OE part, but is sold by the OEM under their own label


OEM is not what BMW sells


http://www.bimmerzone.com/category/T...ricks_OEM.html

https://www.turnermotorsport.com/t-OEvsOEM
  #48  
Old 03-05-2020, 12:49 PM
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The problem with frequentist statistics is that a population must be infected

Bayes' Rule, Unreliable Diagnostic Testing, And Containing COVID-19
How false-negatives in diagnostic testing lead to the release of infected people, motivate extreme containment measures have been implemented, explain why official figures are too low. The COVID-19 outbreak, explained with Bayes' Rule.

https://towardsdatascience.com/stati...n-e113b5c0967c
Quote:
The Probability and Statistics Behind Diagnostic Testing
After gathering enough clues, a doctor may suspect coronavirus. To confirm this suspicion, the doctor will order a diagnostic test.
Misconceptions about what the diagnostic test result means
A diagnostic test is performed by collecting samples from your body (eg. mucus in the back of the nose) and looking for presence of the virus in those samples. It seems simple enough, and people have a lot of faith in science. This may lead people into making this first mistake.
Incorrect interpretation: a positive result means a patient has novel coronavirus, while a negative result means that a patient does not.
This is not true, because the test is not always reliable. There are many reasons why a test may give a misleading result:
A patient in the very early stages of an infection may not excrete a detectable amount of virus.
The virus itself may only exist deeper inside the body, hence being inaccessible by a swab test.
There may have been accidental contamination of the sample.
In general, the people who make the testing kits will specify the reliability of the test.
Suppose that a company now markets their test as "90% accurate". This can lead to another common mistake.
Incorrect interpretation: for a 90% accurate test, a positive result means 90% chance of being infected, and a negative result means 90% chance of not being infected.
This interpretation is also not true, but is actually surprisingly common in the medical community- the great psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer shows how doctors misinterpret the results of mammogram results article.
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 03-05-2020 at 12:51 PM.
  #49  
Old 03-05-2020, 01:37 PM
zod zod is offline
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Here's a simple explanation of Bayes Theorem and medical testing that illustrates Doug's point:
https://vloggest.com/watch/bayes-the...ng-1070185613/
  #50  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:20 PM
zod zod is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2019
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Are we having fun yet?
BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) -- Chinese doctors have proved for the first time that the novel coronavirus can cause damage to patients' central nervous system.

Doctors from Beijing Ditan Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University, a designated institution treating the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), announced Thursday that they have cured a male patient whose cerebrospinal fluid had the virus.

Previous studies show that COVID-19 may attack multiple organs, including kidneys, livers and heart, but there are no records about the central nervous system damage.

The patient, 56, was diagnosed with the COVID-19 on Jan. 24 at the hospital. He had severe symptoms and failed to respond to regular treatment, according to a hospital statement.

In the intensive care unit (ICU), the patient developed symptoms associated with decreased consciousness, though there were no abnormal signs on his head CT images.

The medical staff then conducted gene sequencing on samples of his cerebrospinal fluid and confirmed the presence of the novel coronavirus, diagnosing the COVID-19 patient with encephalitis, an inflammation of the brain.

After the treatment of viral encephalitis, the patient's neurological symptoms gradually disappeared.

He was transferred to the infectious ward on Feb. 18 and was discharged from the hospital on Feb. 25.

Liu Jingyuan, ICU director of the hospital and attending doctor of the patient, said that once a COVID-19 patient is found to have disorders of consciousness, medical staff should consider the possibility of nervous system infections and carry out cerebrospinal fluid tests in time, to avoid delayed diagnosis and further reduce the mortality rate of critically ill patients.

Researchers have previously found that the SARS virus and the MERS virus can also invade patients' nervous systems.

As of Wednesday, the hospital has offered medical treatment to 150 COVID-19 infected patients and found one case with brain inflammation.

China's National Health Commission on Tuesday unveiled the latest version of the national diagnosis and treatment plan for COVID-19, which mentioned that the disease could cause congestion, edema and neuronal degeneration in brain tissues.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138846529.htm
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