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  #1126  
Old 07-04-2020, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zod View Post
The models over here have the curve going to exponential again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo
It's Nate Silver. Can I assume that he at least validated his model by backcasting it?
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  #1127  
Old 07-04-2020, 03:32 AM
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Nate Silver. If he said that the sky is blue then I would check. He is a paid shill, paid to create click-bait.
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  #1128  
Old 07-04-2020, 09:07 AM
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This is 4-day old news, as of June 30 rom Houston:

1294 of 1330 base level ICU beds occupied, 1/3 with COVID-19.
Phase 2 surge capacity 373
Phase 3 surge capacity 504

So there was extra capacity for another 913 ICU [email protected] 4 days ago.

Let's see how the death tolls look like in a week or two, the hope is that plasma treatment and remdesivir can keep some of the patients alive.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/he...a-a401bfe5ff14
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  #1129  
Old 07-04-2020, 09:14 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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The irony is that, while some defy public health measures and continue with big parties and gatherings without masks nor social distancing, not all of them get to see another day.

And the rest of the compliant population pays 5%(and up) GDP for the last parties of these folks.

That sounds like a lose-lose from all counts and all fronts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ying-covid-19/
  #1130  
Old 07-04-2020, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
It's Nate Silver. Can I assume that he at least validated his model by backcasting it?
They are a collection of models that may have differing degrees of accuracy. None by Nate himself. Los Alamos has been in the disease predicting game a long time and they do custom work. Columbia is a gold standard for epidemiology and they have a track record to back it up. I don't know if they do custom work.

One of the really smart fern forecasters likes this one a lot: https://qjhong.github.io/

It'll get the standard arsehole inspection. Meanwhile all the curves are going exponential again.

You gotta wrap your head around that this shyte is going to be around for a long time.

Last edited by zod; 07-04-2020 at 06:56 PM.
  #1131  
Old 07-04-2020, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by zod View Post
You gotta wrap your head around that this shyte is going to be around for a long time.
Done. You're gonna get it. I'm gonna get it.

What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing world economic suicide no longer worth the price? It's going to be around for years.

How about we keep printing money till you need a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread? Don't laugh, it's happened before.

How about the Col. Tanner speech in Red Dawn, where people are "eating rats... and sometimes each other"?

When does saving "as many lives as possible" stop making sense for you guys? Because people are going to die from poverty, etc.
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  #1132  
Old 07-04-2020, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing world economic suicide no longer worth the price? It's going to be around for years.
The answer to your question is presented by countries that have minimal infections AND no lockdown, e.g. HK, South Korea, Taiwan.

How can these little guys achieve something that the richest and most powerful country in the world cannot do after 5-6 months?

Or look at EU countries, all reopened and economy and daily lives(plus social distancing and masks) resuming, with daily deaths and infections (within whole EU) way below US levels.

Some EU health officials said that their public health responses are based on best-in-class R&Ds from US universities, so while US saves the rest of the world, it cannot save itself, and that is extremely unfortunate.
  #1133  
Old 07-04-2020, 11:10 PM
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Another interesting perspective is that, currently the US price tag for coronavirus is $17k per person ($6T/350 million people).

Have countries like HK, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries with minimal infections AND no lockdown spent that much per capita? It is highly doubtful ....

So what kind(s) of price have other countries paid/pay, while the US and US people are not willing to pay?
  #1134  
Old 07-05-2020, 08:14 AM
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Vast majority of new cases are 35 and younger, showing no or mild symptoms, much less requiring hospitalization. I read an interesting article in the WSJ recently (professor at UCLA School of Medicine) advocating that we stop using "new cases" which will increase among the young, and instead use hospital capacity rates as the defining metric. Every other metric just plays into the current culture wars. Though we have an increase in new cases, like many states, our local hospitals are practicing medicine again, to include diagnostics and elective surgeries, while dealing with the pandemic. Do not pay attention to the "new cases could overwhelm....." fear mongering in the media. Part of the "agreement" between the feds/states and the medical community a few months back was that the hospitals would make adjustments (to include furloughing non-essential workers, even nurses) and stop elective procedures (revenue earners) in exchange for federal support to fight coronavirus......we need to hold them accountable. As of right now, I see no mass mobilization of DoD/National Guard medical resources, like we saw in NYC in March.
  #1135  
Old 07-05-2020, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by jfs356 View Post
... and instead use hospital capacity rates as the defining metric.
Local officials appear to be using live ICU capacities, instead of fear mongering infection numbers, to drive lockdown/curfew/no-elective-procedure decisions, and local surge capacities replace field hospitals.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...and-occupancy/

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/article243982777.html
  #1136  
Old 07-05-2020, 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
Done. You're gonna get it. I'm gonna get it.

What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing world economic suicide no longer worth the price? It's going to be around for years.

How about we keep printing money till you need a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread? Don't laugh, it's happened before.

How about the Col. Tanner speech in Red Dawn, where people are "eating rats... and sometimes each other"?

When does saving "as many lives as possible" stop making sense for you guys? Because people are going to die from poverty, etc.
In no particular order: Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, japan, France, Italy and Spain are not committing economic suicide. Brazil and the US are. The DPRK are in a world of hurt because they can't do trade with China. China's response should advance their agenda by about a decade.

I don't plan on getting it, because I can afford to minimize the risks. My biggest problem is investing enough in locally owned businesses and food banks. There are a lot of people that I want to see come out the other end of this knowing that some won't. You have to come to grips with the game state and do the best you can. Some nights you have bad dreams.

Last edited by zod; 07-05-2020 at 07:57 PM.
  #1137  
Old 07-05-2020, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by jfs356 View Post
Vast majority of new cases are 35 and younger, showing no or mild symptoms, much less requiring hospitalization.
Call me when the hospitalization rate is under 15%.
  #1138  
Old 07-05-2020, 08:16 PM
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So Stanford and UCSF have been receiving airlifted COVID-19 patients from Imperial County, which is right next to San Diego.

it is puzzling why those patients are not transported to San Diego, unless San Diego is reserving capacity for LA surge?
  #1139  
Old 07-07-2020, 12:49 AM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
The answer to your question is presented by countries...
You dodged the question, which I will revise and ask again:

"What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing economic suicide in the United States no longer worth the price?" (rest of question is the same)
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  #1140  
Old 07-07-2020, 06:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
You dodged the question, which I will revise and ask again:

"What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing economic suicide in the United States no longer worth the price?" (rest of question is the same)
That's a false choice.

We continue to extend the shutdown for one reason: we are a nation of crybaby idiots. We KNOW that if 80% would wear a mask, we could remain open. But NO, we need to cry about "takin' away mah rights" and make this a political statement.


Idiots. Unfortunately, the reopening schedule is up to them.
  #1141  
Old 07-07-2020, 07:36 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
You dodged the question, which I will revise and ask again:

"What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing economic suicide in the United States no longer worth the price?" (rest of question is the same)
Again your question is answered directly by countries that have minimal infection AND no lockdown..

US could have learnt from these countries and exited lockdown 2 months ago, when Birx and Fauci and other top health officials reminded us daily of social distancing and masks and other guidelines learnt from others.

To paraphrase, US at no point needed to be shut down in the past 2 months had there been universal compliance to masks and social distancing.
  #1142  
Old 07-07-2020, 06:31 PM
zod zod is offline
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
You dodged the question, which I will revise and ask again:

"What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing economic suicide in the United States no longer worth the price?" (rest of question is the same)
What's the objective definition of "Economic Suicide"? If you can put in terms of a falsifiable question in a specific time frame, then we can have a wager. I like playing games for real money and I'll play with anyone.

Last edited by zod; 07-07-2020 at 06:33 PM.
  #1143  
Old 07-08-2020, 07:00 AM
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Coronavirus Daily Deaths Down 92.4% From Peak, Have Declined Ten Straight Weeks
https://outkick.com/coronavirus-dail...traight-weeks/

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-...kpb/index.html

Last edited by jfs356; 07-08-2020 at 08:09 AM.
  #1144  
Old 07-08-2020, 08:10 PM
MoparJim MoparJim is offline
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
You dodged the question, which I will revise and ask again:

"What I want to ask you guys is at what point do you consider committing economic suicide in the United States no longer worth the price?" (rest of question is the same)
It was NEVER worth the price. If you ask me, EVERY job/business is essential (except those at PP). This thing was political from the start.
  #1145  
Old 07-08-2020, 09:27 PM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Again your question is answered directly by countries that have [B]minimal infection AND no lockdown.
I can point to countries that did all sorts of different things ranging from almost nothing to welding their citizens inside their apartments, and with counter intuitive results.

Namelessman, we are not those countries. We made the decisions we made, right or wrong. We are on the path that we are on. In my county (L.A.) the lockdown is still in high effect, higher than a month ago. That's the path WE are on.

Zod, we are committing slow economic suicide. Some businesses will never come back. Some industries will never be the same. We are paying people to not work. Rents and mortgages are not getting paid, and we're putting more debt on future generations than I even want to think about.

So pretend you guys can call the shots and people have to do what you say. Starting now, not 2 months ago in South Korea. What would you have everyone do to get through this pandemic? What does success over COVID-19 look like? How long do you think it would take to get there? Cogitate on that...

And then tell me what consequences you are willing to accept in several other areas of everyone's lives. I think we've spelled them out well enough. I think you'd stop short of "people eating rats.... and sometimes each other" but that's called reducto ad absurdium or something we need Doug for. I had to get your attention.

Do the rest of you at least understand the nature of my question? You may disagree with this crybaby idiot but is my question clear?
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Last edited by wankel boy; 07-08-2020 at 09:29 PM.
  #1146  
Old 07-08-2020, 10:21 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
So pretend you guys can call the shots and people have to do what you say. Starting now, not 2 months ago in South Korea. What would you have everyone do to get through this pandemic? What does success over COVID-19 look like? How long do you think it would take to get there? Cogitate on that...
Those appear to be different questions from your original one.

Fauci and other public health folks said mask compliance and social distancing from everyone should safely get US into "new" normal.

But "new" normal cannot restore many business(e.g. restaurants, hospitality, travel) to pre-COV2 any time soon, not in US nor worldwide.

E.g. HK now reports a spike of COVID-19 when restaurant social distancing and capacity restrictions are rolled back(and people need to unmask to eat!), so everyone worldwide is affected the same way.

Just imagine there is a flood, and the water level does not recede, what are the options other than finding ways to live with it?

One unwise way to live with flood is to keep jumping into raging water, testing one's strengths and/or resources of the rescue teams.

One wise way is to respect the flood, and stay clear of raging water.

Having said that, US still has a chance to be #1, assuming none of the 200+ vaccine R&Ds work.

In other words, if herd immunity is the only solution, then US definitely will be way ahead of everyone else. If any of the 200+ vaccines does work, then US will look really stupid.
  #1147  
Old 07-09-2020, 01:32 PM
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I said early on when the lockdowns began, that the cure would be worse than the disease. I still believe this. Our economy is a deck of cards right now, states are going in the red financially (they cannot print money), loss of revenues will impact every facet of our lives. The next generation of young folks are getting stunted educations, great for our future.
Airlines, auto, leisure/travel industries all devastated. Hospitals nationwide expected to lose over $300Bn in revenues, and still cutting staff......during the pandemic? I cannot make sense of it....Admittedly, the basics are available, energy, food, utilities, comms....

Last edited by jfs356; 07-09-2020 at 01:58 PM.
  #1148  
Old 07-09-2020, 05:37 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by jfs356 View Post
Admittedly, the basics are available, energy, food, utilities, comms....
When the pandemic(or flood as an analogy) still rages, there will be damages, even with mask and social distancing compliance.

The public health measures are mainly to keep the mass healthy, without long-term side effects, and keep the critical and essential and invaluable functioning, and wait for the flood to recede.

A victory over COVID-19 is similar to a victory over Nature, it is doable but not without pain.

This pandemic(just like wartime) also exposes what really matters and what are nice-to-have.

Eating out, hospitality, travel, entertainment(including pro sports), etc, etc, not that essential.

Manufacturing, production(including food), healthcare, utilities, etc, etc, quite essential.

Just assume there is no lockdown in March, honestly how many still go to restaurants when people keep getting sick(as demonstrated all over US now in real time)?

It appears that the US economy leans heavily on service industries that get disproportionately affected by pandemic.
  #1149  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:29 PM
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Zod, we are committing slow economic suicide.
You still haven't defined it in quantifiable terms

Quote:
Some businesses will never come back. Some industries will never be the same.
That was obvious about four months ago. I have some bets down on the nominal GDP's of China and the US. The property market is pretty hot right now. There are ways to dip your beak.

You seem to be stuck in a rut. Why can't you re-invent yourself?
  #1150  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:44 PM
zod zod is offline
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Originally Posted by jfs356 View Post
I said early on when the lockdowns began, that the cure would be worse than the disease. I still believe this. Our economy is a deck of cards right now, states are going in the red financially (they cannot print money), loss of revenues will impact every facet of our lives. The next generation of young folks are getting stunted educations, great for our future.
Airlines, auto, leisure/travel industries all devastated. Hospitals nationwide expected to lose over $300Bn in revenues, and still cutting staff......during the pandemic? I cannot make sense of it....Admittedly, the basics are available, energy, food, utilities, comms....
None of these models have the curve flattening any longer.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo

How many people do you want to kill and for what reason. This is life in war against a wildfire.
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