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  #1  
Old 02-13-2020, 08:40 PM
fshine fshine is offline
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Help me end this debate in my head...

Hello to all and thanks for the many years of wonderful info. I am struggling with my lease end decision in terms of leasing again or buying this car. I never considered buying at lease end before as I always felt like there was something better in the newer model that I really wanted and the residuals were quite high. I now have a 2017 X5 m sport and really enjoy it. I have very few miles on the car at 20k. The buy out is 41k. While I do really like the new X5s, I'm not sure the tech is so compelling as to warrant the higher lease. (Programs and rebates and MSD were all better in '17). That said, I am not thrilled with how BMWFS won't negotiate the price and am not sure the ownership/accident/depreciation risk/maintenance cost is worth it. So I am turning to the esteemed group here to talk some sense and help me figure out the right path. I have not bought a car in 20 years (I always have leased and drive low miles while we buy my wife's and those are the kid haulers) hence the struggle. HELP! ***x1f642;
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  #2  
Old 02-14-2020, 02:03 AM
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mclaren mclaren is offline
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The 1st thing you should do is go to Carmax and get a quote, it's fast and free. Then you will know about how much your X5 is worth. Next ask your dealer if you could buy the car from him and how much it would be. If they are miles above the Carmax quote you could show the quote to them and maybe that would help negotiate a lower price. I wouldn't consider buying the vehicle from BMWFS unless they are close to Carmax ( which they won't be ). Unless you can buy it for something close to Carmax I wouldn't do it. I and many others have looked at this and generally it is best to turn it in and lease a new one.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:16 AM
Art234 Art234 is offline
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Originally Posted by mclaren View Post
The 1st thing you should do is go to Carmax and get a quote, it's fast and free. Then you will know about how much your X5 is worth. Next ask your dealer if you could buy the car from him and how much it would be. If they are miles above the Carmax quote you could show the quote to them and maybe that would help negotiate a lower price. I wouldn't consider buying the vehicle from BMWFS unless they are close to Carmax ( which they won't be ). Unless you can buy it for something close to Carmax I wouldn't do it. I and many others have looked at this and generally it is best to turn it in and lease a new one.
BMW has changed the rules of the game to basically close the loophole which allows lessees to buy their cars from the dealer at a lower cost. They charge the dealer a financial penalty if they find the car was sold to the lessee, his family or company for other than the adjusted residual or close to it (I am paraphrasing).

Lucky for me I was able to get my 2014 535dx at a significant saving by doing that in 2017 but the rules changed shortly thereafter.

I would check with the dealer because even with that added cost it may still be worthwhile....
Good luck!
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:35 AM
SteveinArizona SteveinArizona is offline
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BMWFS usually sells the cars back tot he dealers as they come off lease. While the dealer can't sell your car back to you, it can sell you one that it has from another lessee. So there might be similar models out there.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:40 AM
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mclaren mclaren is offline
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In another thread I was told they changed the rules back to where a dealer can sell your leased car to you.
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Old 02-14-2020, 06:08 AM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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You can look up the value of your X5 on KBB.com. That's easier than running down to Carmax.

BMW FS is supposedly now offering to sell leased cars to the lessee directly for less than the residual. But, it seems to vary with model and region. The advantage of buying your leased BMW is that you're dealing with a known quantity, not the case with any other used BMW.

BMW's are better than they used to be. You usually don't start seeing trouble with them until somewhere past 75k miles. For you, that'd be when the car/truck is ten years old.

The break-even point where leasing and owning costs is generally between four and six years, generally being lower as annual mileage increases. At 7k mile/year, I suspect the break-even point would be around six years, or maybe more. It's that seven to nine year stint where huge savings come, especially with low annual mileage.

My 2014 535i had an MSRP of $73k. With sales tax, title fees, and a spare tire my out the door cost was about $72k. I look up the value of my cars on the anniversaries of their purchase. From that, I know what the annual deprecation has been. I drive about 11k miles a year, but that's gone down since I retired. For the first five yeas, my deprecation, maintenance, and capital cost has averaged about $960/month. That's more than if I'd leased two 535i's. But, the sixth year (ending next month) will come in at about $400/month. I'm expecting similar monthly costs for the next three years, too. By buying and owning for nine years and 100k miles, I'll save about $25k over what it would have cost to least three similar cars.

The key to keeping and enjoying a car for nine years and 100k miles is to maintain it in near new condition, both mechanically and cosmetically. "Autoputzer" is German for car washer, so I got the cosmetic part nailed. When you consider what a lease payment or deprecation is on a new car, the occasional four-figure repair bill is a lot easier to take. I budget $0.20/mile for maintenance and repairs once I'm out of the warranty period.

My beater is a 2007 Chevy Cobalt. with 125k miles on it. I go to a lot of places where it's not save to park a BMW. I want and can afford a new beater. I get a special deal on GM cars, so my beaters are cheap GM cars bought new. But, my annual deprecation on the Cobalt is zero. Actually, it's negative. The KBB of the car is about $100 more than it was a year ago. Even with my discount, the first year deprecation and capital cost on a new Equinox would be about $450/month. So, I've decided to drive the Cobalt another year.
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Old 02-14-2020, 06:20 AM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Originally Posted by mclaren View Post
In another thread I was told they changed the rules back to where a dealer can sell your leased car to you.

There was never a time when the "dealer could not sell you the leased return car". They could always sell it to you, they just cant discount it now any further than BMWFS will discount it.

The price may not be the full residual, but there is no negotiation on a lease return price. BMW FS sets the price of the car, and its residual minus whatever amount BMW FS has decided to offer the owner of the car for buying it.

The only advantage at buying it from a dealer vs BMW FS is the dealer can CPO the car for you or sell you additional warranties that BMW FS will not sell directly.

Its possible that this has changed recently (as in this year) but I read the threads, including the one you talk about, and one from Jon Shafer offering to assist with purchasing cars at lease end, and nothing in any of those threads appears that anything has changed from the "dealer can not discount a lease return any more than BMW FS will".

Dealers still get a low buy out price, from BMW FS that is closer to actual market value, but that value has nothing to do with what price the person owning the car can get... unless the rules changed recently and nothing Jon or anyone else has said has said that.
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  #8  
Old 02-14-2020, 07:18 AM
Alpine300ZHP Alpine300ZHP is offline
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Help me end this debate in my head...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
There was never a time when the "dealer could not sell you the leased return car". They could always sell it to you, they just cant discount it now any further than BMWFS will discount it.



The price may not be the full residual, but there is no negotiation on a lease return price. BMW FS sets the price of the car, and its residual minus whatever amount BMW FS has decided to offer the owner of the car for buying it.



The only advantage at buying it from a dealer vs BMW FS is the dealer can CPO the car for you or sell you additional warranties that BMW FS will not sell directly.



Its possible that this has changed recently (as in this year) but I read the threads, including the one you talk about, and one from Jon Shafer offering to assist with purchasing cars at lease end, and nothing in any of those threads appears that anything has changed from the "dealer can not discount a lease return any more than BMW FS will".



Dealers still get a low buy out price, from BMW FS that is closer to actual market value, but that value has nothing to do with what price the person owning the car can get... unless the rules changed recently and nothing Jon or anyone else has said has said that.


Exactly correct. The OP should see what he can buy his car for and then decide if the price is worth it. If itís a fair price, buy it. If itís not a fair price, let it go back to BMW and buy/lease another car. Those are the options. For what it is worth, the full-circle stores (which is virtually all of them) are required to buy their off-lease cars from BMW unless they burn a mulligan. Iím tight with the GSM of a South Florida BMW store and he told me straight that he takes a loss on many of his CPO cars that are lease returns because his buyout price is often above Manheim. He always prefers trade in cars over lease returns because he buys those for the actual cash value and they are easier to flip for a profit. He is always honest with me so I believe him. He said that by the time he gets done putting on 4 new runflats and fixing any outstanding issues, he is lucky if he can make a few dollars on them. Many he ends up selling below actual cost after reconditioning is factored in. I thought this information would be worthwhile because it helps to explain why most people believe that BMWís buyout is too high.....I think BMW does that to get the dealer/original lease owner to absorb some of the loss from inflated residual to actual cash value.

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Old 02-14-2020, 07:31 AM
1968BMW2800 1968BMW2800 is offline
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Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP View Post
Exactly correct. The OP should see what he can buy his car for and then decide if the price is worth it. If itís a fair price, buy it. If itís not a fair price, let it go back to BMW and buy/lease another car. Those are the options.

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+++ that.

The debate in one's head needs to be an informed debate, IMHO. Get some real numbers in your head and then... as they say, do the math. Decide if the opportunity cost is worth it to keep a car you enjoy. The right answer will be revealed.
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:33 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
ts possible that this has changed recently (as in this year) but I read the threads, including the one you talk about, and one from Jon Shafer offering to assist with purchasing cars at lease end, and nothing in any of those threads appears that anything has changed from the "dealer can not discount a lease return any more than BMW FS will".
The process has built-in deterring effect, e.g. since dealer cannot sell at price lower than BMWFS, and lessee needs to pay disposition, by definition indirect [email protected] would be more expensive than direct [email protected]

If CPO is needed, then it depends if dealer can/will sell CPO at a price of CPO + disposition lower than ESC. Since ESC prices are opaque, that will not be easy for customers to do the math.
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:22 AM
ard ard is offline
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Originally Posted by Alpine300ZHP View Post
Exactly correct. The OP should see what he can buy his car for and then decide if the price is worth it. If itís a fair price, buy it. If itís not a fair price, let it go back to BMW and buy/lease another car. Those are the options. For what it is worth, the full-circle stores (which is virtually all of them) are required to buy their off-lease cars from BMW unless they burn a mulligan. Iím tight with the GSM of a South Florida BMW store and he told me straight that he takes a loss on many of his CPO cars that are lease returns because his buyout price is often above Manheim. He always prefers trade in cars over lease returns because he buys those for the actual cash value and they are easier to flip for a profit. He is always honest with me so I believe him. He said that by the time he gets done putting on 4 new runflats and fixing any outstanding issues, he is lucky if he can make a few dollars on them. Many he ends up selling below actual cost after reconditioning is factored in. I thought this information would be worthwhile because it helps to explain why most people believe that BMWís buyout is too high.....I think BMW does that to get the dealer/original lease owner to absorb some of the loss from inflated residual to actual cash value.

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(As I recall, not sure if this was mentioned above)

Keep in mind that dealers DO have a vested interest in selling lease turn ins. BMWNA wants to see a certain % of lease turn ins that dealers sell and DO NOT send back toBMWFS for auction. (In order to be a golden circle jerk dealer or some such...)

So you do have A LITTLE leverage.... Say the price is close to car max, not great...you could ask them to roll in a CPO warranty on the top. Or other warranty. There is SOME margin on these that they can play with...
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OEM is Original Equipment Manufacturer... EITHER the company that made the OE part or.... A part this is identical to the OE part, but is sold by the OEM under their own label


OEM is not what BMW sells


http://www.bimmerzone.com/category/T...ricks_OEM.html

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Old 02-14-2020, 09:50 AM
1968BMW2800 1968BMW2800 is offline
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Back to OP's dilemma for a second.

The wholesale auction system, is micro-data driven to the point that operations like CarMax have algorithms that can calculate if it's worth shipping a vehicle from, say Utah to Georgia to make an extra $500 on a retail sale.

With so many cars chasing fewer and fewer qualified buyers, there is a relentless downward pressure on price. Wholesale and retail.

BMWNA is pounded on by the dealer group to, on one hand, support resale pricing and, on the other hand, make vehicles attractive to retail buyers, which, in the past, resulted in aggressive leasing structures containing artificially high residuals.

So, if the wholesale auction reality on a vehicle is $20,000, and the residual is $35,000, then how can BMWFS reconcile marketplace reality with the need to support the "value" of the brand?

Some genius at HQ says, "We gotta quit giving these lease returns away to returning customers. We want to make it attractive for them to lease another BMW and we want to find a way to entice dealers to keep those lease returns for their inventory, because shipping the cars to auction, where the downward price pressure is enormous, is costly, but at least the dealers who buy at auction are incentivized to retail this inventory at the highest possible price."

But then, the BMW genius starts thinking maybe the best way to unload lease return inventory is to just sell it to the guy returning the car. But, wait, how to make the dealer happy if the transaction is between BMWFS and the customer? Maybe pay the dealer a few bucks or given the dealer an opportunity to sell some financing or a CPO/ESC. But we can't offer to sell the customer his lease return for less than what the dealer is selling similar inventory for....

All my macro-economic training tells me it's inevitably a race to the bottom when folks try to micro-manage the invisible hand of the marketplace. It never ends well.

But, as always, the self-inflicted marketplace chaos always creates opportunities for savvy customers. I hope OP finds the opportunity in his situation.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:08 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 View Post
All my macro-economic training tells me it's inevitably a race to the bottom when folks try to micro-manage the invisible hand of the marketplace. It never ends well.

But, as always, the self-inflicted marketplace chaos always creates opportunities for savvy customers. I hope OP finds the opportunity in his situation.
My thinking is that buy side and sell side constantly need to adjust to prevailing market conditions, so BMWFS/BMWNA is just doing its part in a mutual dance so to say.

This brings to mind our household's strategy of buy-and-hold, namely, reducing transactions saves the exposure to ever-changing market conditions, so it saves us lots of time and energy.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:02 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
My thinking is that buy side and sell side constantly need to adjust to prevailing market conditions, so BMWFS/BMWNA is just doing its part in a mutual dance so to say.

This brings to mind our household's strategy of buy-and-hold, namely, reducing transactions saves the exposure to ever-changing market conditions, so it saves us lots of time and energy.




I dont think it saves you any energy, because it appears you research pricing constantly. You appear to enjoy researching the pricing, because for someone who has the stated strategy of "buy and hold, for 7-10 years" if you didnt like the research, you would have zero reason to be doing it. In fact, I think you research it as much or more than I did, in the height of me basically attempting to carry on Ninog's great support to this site, which I did for a year and half or so before I stopped for various reasons.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:22 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
[/B]

I dont think it saves you any energy, because it appears you research pricing constantly. You appear to enjoy researching the pricing, because for someone who has the stated strategy of "buy and hold, for 7-10 years" if you didnt like the research, you would have zero reason to be doing it. In fact, I think you research it as much or more than I did, in the height of me basically attempting to carry on Ninog's great support to this site, which I did for a year and half or so before I stopped for various reasons.
Fair point. Most of time it was push rather than pull, namely, someone asked/talked about their pending deals and the numbers ran subconsciously in my head.

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Old 02-14-2020, 01:33 PM
1968BMW2800 1968BMW2800 is offline
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I think I've maybe sniffed too many new car fumes... as soon as I drive off in my newest ride I start thinking about my next car deal. It's an illness. I look forward to the time and energy expenditure. Beats workin' for a living.
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:30 PM
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quackbury quackbury is offline
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Originally Posted by fshine View Post
That said, I am not thrilled with how BMWFS won't negotiate the price
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art234 View Post
BMW has changed the rules of the game to basically close the loophole which allows lessees to buy their cars from the dealer at a lower cost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
There was never a time when the "dealer could not sell you the leased return car". They could always sell it to you, they just cant discount it now any further than BMWFS will discount it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 View Post
But, as always, the self-inflicted marketplace chaos always creates opportunities for savvy customers. I hope OP finds the opportunity in his situation.
You got a lot of historically very-well informed posters here. And it's not their fault the advice they are giving you - which up until recently was absolutely spot-on - in now less so. BMW changed the freaking rules on us all.

Once upon a time, a dealer could sell you your lease return - and even CPO it - for less than the residual stated in your lease contract. This was a great strategy, particularly if you had a leased car for business use (where you could deduct all or most of the monthly lease payments) and you wanted to convert it to personal use at the end of the lease, for your spouse, kids, etc.

Then, for a number of years (3? 4? Longer?) BMW clamped down on that strategy. The dealer could sell "your" lease return to another customer for less than residual, and could sell you someone else's lease return for less than "their" residual, but the dealer couldn't sell YOU your own lease return for anything less than your own residual. Crazy, huh?

We have 2 BMW's rolling off lease in the next 100 days. Our 2016 428 Gran Coupe has a residual value of $32,264.95. But when I log onto bmwfs.com/myaccount to check my payoff quote, I could buy the sucker for $28,264.95. A discount of precisely $4,000. And the weird thing is, I don't even need to go to a dealer: I can purchase the car directly from BMWFS for the discounted price. (OP, you should go on My BMW and see what your own discounted purchase price might be).

Similarly, my 2017 540i has a contractual residual value of $43,565.60. I have three lease payments remaining of +/- $750, so my payoff price today should be $43,565 + $2,250 = $45,815. Instead, My BMW is telling me I can buy the car today for $38,742.82, a $7,000 discount from the contractual residual! And I'd also avoid stroking a check for penalty miles at lease end, another $4,500 or so in savings.

It's tempting. The 540 has been bullet-proof, and I like it so much I have an almost-identical 2020 on order. Though with a higher lease payment due to all the factors the OP mentioned. If I was retiring "tomorrow" and wouldn't be racking up a lot more miles, I'd seriously consider buying the 2017. That $4,500 I wouldn't be spending on penalty miles would easily pay for new brakes, tires and the other stuff my current whip would need.

It's a brave new world out there!
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:49 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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You got a lot of historically very-well informed posters here. And it's not their fault the advice they are giving you - which up until recently was absolutely spot-on - in now less so. BMW changed the freaking rules on us all.

Once upon a time, a dealer could sell you your lease return - and even CPO it - for less than the residual stated in your lease contract. This was a great strategy, particularly if you had a leased car for business use (where you could deduct all or most of the monthly lease payments) and you wanted to convert it to personal use at the end of the lease, for your spouse, kids, etc.

Then, for a number of years (3? 4? Longer?) BMW clamped down on that strategy. The dealer could sell "your" lease return to another customer for less than residual, and could sell you someone else's lease return for less than "their" residual, but the dealer couldn't sell YOU your own lease return for anything less than your own residual. Crazy, huh?

We have 2 BMW's rolling off lease in the next 100 days. Our 2016 428 Gran Coupe has a residual value of $32,264.95. But when I log onto bmwfs.com/myaccount to check my payoff quote, I could buy the sucker for $28,264.95. A discount of precisely $4,000. And the weird thing is, I don't even need to go to a dealer: I can purchase the car directly from BMWFS for the discounted price. (OP, you should go on My BMW and see what your own discounted purchase price might be).

Similarly, my 2017 540i has a contractual residual value of $43,565.60. I have three lease payments remaining of +/- $750, so my payoff price today should be $43,565 + $2,250 = $45,815. Instead, My BMW is telling me I can buy the car today for $38,742.82, a $7,000 discount from the contractual residual! And I'd also avoid stroking a check for penalty miles at lease end, another $4,500 or so in savings.

It's tempting. The 540 has been bullet-proof, and I like it so much I have an almost-identical 2020 on order. Though with a higher lease payment due to all the factors the OP mentioned. If I was retiring "tomorrow" and wouldn't be racking up a lot more miles, I'd seriously consider buying the 2017. That $4,500 I wouldn't be spending on penalty miles would easily pay for new brakes, tires and the other stuff my current whip would need.

It's a brave new world out there!
I think thats the same thing I was saying though.. I said that the price would be residual minus whatever amount BMW FS decides to throw at it. I was specifically referencing @Mclaren's advice which was the "way we all used to do it".

I think the discounts now are on a "per vin" basis but dont know that because I havent checked in with anyone in the know...

When they first implemented this new policy, I remember some model year 2015s having good discounts of 4k on them while 2016s had like 800.

Anyway, I know that some are discounted but I dont think there is "negotiation" on them anymore, it just is discounted whatever 'FS says it is.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:28 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by quackbury View Post
We have 2 BMW's rolling off lease in the next 100 days. Our 2016 428 Gran Coupe has a residual value of $32,264.95. But when I log onto bmwfs.com/myaccount to check my payoff quote, I could buy the sucker for $28,264.95. A discount of precisely $4,000. And the weird thing is, I don't even need to go to a dealer: I can purchase the car directly from BMWFS for the discounted price. (OP, you should go on My BMW and see what your own discounted purchase price might be).

Similarly, my 2017 540i has a contractual residual value of $43,565.60. I have three lease payments remaining of +/- $750, so my payoff price today should be $43,565 + $2,250 = $45,815. Instead, My BMW is telling me I can buy the car today for $38,742.82, a $7,000 discount from the contractual residual! And I'd also avoid stroking a check for penalty miles at lease end, another $4,500 or so in savings.
The $7k discounts on the 2017 540i, plus skipping $4.5k of overuse miles, sound like no brainer. My guess is that the $7k can include some implicit pull-ahead too.

The $4k on the 2016 428i looks standard. If your car is registered in PZEV state, that N26 engine even has TC covered for 15 years/150000 miles, and that is a big plus.

Taking a few steps back, how are the $28k and $38k compared to FMVs of similar mileage and age?
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  #20  
Old 02-15-2020, 11:58 AM
1968BMW2800 1968BMW2800 is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post

Taking a few steps back, how are the $28k and $38k compared to FMVs of similar mileage and age?
Nah..... Quack wants a new ride. New Car Smell beats practical math every time.
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:46 AM
fshine fshine is offline
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Thanks so much to all the great info everyone has shared! As a follow up, I did call BMWFS and they informed me that the 41,600 buyout includes a 1200 reduction baked in and that was as low as they will go (note the rep also said the deduction was temporary??). Looking at CPO retail listed cars with similar low mileage I see them around the same price (+/- 1k). Assuming there is about 1k profit in those cars for the dealer and CPO cost, I figure they can get it for about 2k less than me which is effectively the premium in my mind of keeping my own car. I have a friend with an independent dealership who can access BMWFS network for off lease cars and the offered pricing on those is really not much lower (2-3k) so it somewhat reinforces the above.

This is the first time in my car history where I really have little urge to lease the newest thing. I love new car smell but perhaps as I get older the hassle has to be worth something tangible I want and I largely think the current X5 is a slightly better appointed car with largely the same interior tech. I see myself wanting whatever tech is available in 3 or so years, hence why this decision is not so cut and dry to me as the buy and hold payoff is really from year 7 and I just don't see myself making it there.

So as of now my thinking is to buy, monitor prices over the next 45 days and, if the "premium" on my car remains 1-2k, I probably bite the bullet. Otherwise, I turn it in and buy a different one with same specs. On the off chance Car Max gets one, they will inevitably be cheapest but sans CPO.

On that last point, what are views on extending warranty (and pricing) vs CPO vs both?
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  #22  
Old 02-16-2020, 11:37 AM
Squeak Squeak is offline
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Originally Posted by quackbury View Post
Similarly, my 2017 540i has a contractual residual value of $43,565.60. I have three lease payments remaining of +/- $750, so my payoff price today should be $43,565 + $2,250 = $45,815. Instead, My BMW is telling me I can buy the car today for $38,742.82, a $7,000 discount from the contractual residual!
Oh, so it was that you just needed to wait to be inside the ~3-month window to see the discount on the 540. Good to know.
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  #23  
Old 02-16-2020, 11:51 AM
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quackbury quackbury is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Taking a few steps back, how are the $28k and $38k compared to FMVs of similar mileage and age?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1968BMW2800 View Post
Nah..... Quack wants a new ride. New Car Smell beats practical math every time.
Depends on the Quack. Mrs. Quack hates learning new technology. Her 2016 428 GC is being replaced with a 2017 CPO 330i sedan. Similar options and packages, except the 2017 is not an MSport (which on an F3X xDrive is just a cosmetic package anyway, and Mrs. Quack doesn't care about the MSport steering wheel). Only 11,000 miles on the 330 and it's covered for 2 1/2 years / unlimited miles by the CPO warranty vs. the 428 with 60,000 miles on the clock and ZERO warranty.

The out-the-door cost for the CPO is $22,500, which is a lot better than the discounted price to buy the high mileage 428 off lease.

The-Quack-Who-Strokes-The-Checks does, in fact, have an addiction to that new car smell. But there's a little more to it. If my health holds up, I figure I will be working for 5 more years; long enough to see if my daughter wants to come into my practice. So right now, it's one more 3 year lease (with the attendant tax benefits), then ... who knows?

There's a chance I will buy my 2020 540 off lease in 3 years, so I skipped ordering IAS. Heard too many horror stories about out-of-warranty repairs. I will likely follow Mike Miller's Old School Maintenance Schedule on the 2020 (and on Mrs. Quack's ride) just in case. But if we're all still around in 2023, maybe I will be buying something else: a CPO Taycan, a CPO M850i, a CPO ///M4 Convertible?

The 2020 will get me through the next 3 years reliably, and I'll still have the flexibility to get something fun for my "retirement car".

That's my story and I am sticking to it!
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Current BMW's:

2020 540i MSport
2017 330i Sport

Prior BMW's
2018 340i RWD 6MT MSport
2017 540i MSport
2016 428 GC MSport
2015 X1 35i xDrive
2015 X1 28i xDrive
2014 535i MSport
2014 328i SportWagon
2011 535ix MSport
2011 X5 35D
2008 ///M3 Vert
2008 X5 3.0
2007 X5 3.0
2006 X5 3.0
2006 550iA SP
2003 540iA M-Technic
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  #24  
Old 02-16-2020, 11:59 AM
1968BMW2800 1968BMW2800 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quackbury View Post
Depends on the Quack. Mrs. Quack hates learning new technology. Her 2016 428 GC is being replaced with a 2017 CPO 330i sedan. Similar options and packages, except the 2017 is not an MSport (which on an F3X xDrive is just a cosmetic package anyway, and Mrs. Quack doesn't care about the MSport steering wheel). Only 11,000 miles on the 330 and it's covered for 2 1/2 years / unlimited miles by the CPO warranty vs. the 428 with 60,000 miles on the clock and ZERO warranty.

The out-the-door cost for the CPO is $22,500, which is a lot better than the discounted price to buy the high mileage 428 off lease.

The-Quack-Who-Strokes-The-Checks does, in fact, have an addiction to that new car smell. But there's a little more to it. If my health holds up, I figure I will be working for 5 more years; long enough to see if my daughter wants to come into my practice. So right now, it's one more 3 year lease (with the attendant tax benefits), then ... who knows?

There's a chance I will buy my 2020 540 off lease in 3 years, so I skipped ordering IAS. Heard too many horror stories about out-of-warranty repairs. I will likely follow Mike Miller's Old School Maintenance Schedule on the 2020 (and on Mrs. Quack's ride) just in case. But if we're all still around in 2023, maybe I will be buying something else: a CPO Taycan, a CPO M850i, a CPO ///M4 Convertible?

The 2020 will get me through the next 3 years reliably, and I'll still have the flexibility to get something fun for my "retirement car".

That's my story and I am sticking to it!
Well-reasoned, like all of us aging-out new car smell junkies do.

I remember when, in 1989, my father bought a 5 series, ordered just they way he wanted it. He announced that this would be his last car. 11 years later, when he died, the car was as new and stayed in the family until, a few years ago, a family member to whom the car had been once-again handed down, let it overheat and fried that sweet straight 6.

I treat every car acquisition as if it will be my last car. Life is uncertain, eat dessert first, if you're fortunate enough to be in a position to do so.
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  #25  
Old 02-16-2020, 12:08 PM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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My 2014 535i is a few weeks short of six years old with 65k miles. I couldn't take the OE Goodyear LS2 run-flats anymore, and sent them to the landfill with 7/32" of tread left on them. Real tires, Michelin PSS's, were $1100. I had to replace the steering wheel ($850) because it was cut up by the zipper on my official Advanced M School jacket. I hit what would normally be a called a pothole, requiring two alignments and replacement of the RF upper control arm ($1100). (Potholes are caused by rain and freezing temperatures. This hole was intentionally dug by the Bubbaville water department, and filled in with clay instead of asphalt.)

My sixth year anniversary will be coming up soon. Bases on a recent KBB look-up, my depreciation, maintenance, and capital costs for six years will end up being an average of $858/month, or $0.93/mile. That's about where I would have been if I'd leased two cars. But, this last year was good: deprecation, maintenance, and capital costs being a average of $351/month or $0.47/mile. I've entered The Happy Time in BMW ownership, and I plan on staying there for three or four more years.

If you can't psychologically keep a BMW eight or nine years and 100k miles, leasing is probably the best way to go. But, if you have a longer than average automotive attention span, there are huge savings to be had from keeping a car for most of its designed service life. I've known five deca-millionaires (high school friend, parent's next-door neighbor, former boss and life long friend, a distant relative, and a couple in my 'hood) They all keep (or kept, my parent's neighbor died a few years ago) cars around ten years. My former boss currently drives a 20 year old car, but it's a Ferrari 550 he bought used about ten years ago with 9k miles on it. His wife has a Cadillac CTS-V, which has a Corvette engine in it. They have a little game they play when they're going out. She askes which car they are going to be taking. If he says "Let's take the slow car," that means they're taking the Ferrari.
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