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  #1101  
Old 06-29-2020, 06:32 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
If someone else chooses to wear a mask and stay home, I'm all for it.
Fauci and many health experts say if there is no infected person in your household, there is no need to wear mask at home.

My working assumption is that indoor extended exposure (10+ minutes) with infected persons breathing out virus is needed to get infected, so mask up in those scenarios(and as mandated by state and store policies and such).
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  #1102  
Old 06-29-2020, 06:57 PM
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Take up golf. If you have the hand eye for hockey, then you should be good at golf. You can bet and drink too. What's not to like?


Improvise, adapt, overcome.

Last edited by zod; 06-29-2020 at 07:04 PM.
  #1103  
Old 06-29-2020, 09:54 PM
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mark_m5 mark_m5 is offline
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... or lack thereof!!!

Hope we develop some "herd immunity" quick.
"Herd intelligence" might be preferable, but I'm not going to hold my breath for that.
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  #1104  
Old 06-29-2020, 10:19 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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... or lack thereof!!!

Hope we develop some "herd immunity" quick.
"Herd intelligence" might be preferable, but I'm not going to hold my breath for that.
US herd immunity is some way off. NYC is a good sample point, with so many deaths, NYC achieved 20% antibody.

E.g. CDC says 10x infection of reported case, so around 25m. 70% herd out of 350m needs 245m infections.

So US is around 10% the way to herd, with 125k deaths.

Assuming the mortality rate stays the same(say, 0.5%), there needs to be another 1m+ death to go before US hits 245m infections.

Positive (or wishful) thinking says the death rate should be lower than 0.5%, but it looks like many brave those stats right now ....
  #1105  
Old 06-29-2020, 10:27 PM
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Take up golf. If you have the hand eye for hockey, then you should be good at golf.
I'm a defenseman.
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  #1106  
Old 06-30-2020, 04:18 AM
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Doug Huffman Doug Huffman is online now
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You all are well trained compliant subjects. Kneel to your Masters superior knowledg

Prevalent Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus with 2009 pandemic viral genes facilitating human infection

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../23/1921186117

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ential-report/

It is the continuing evolution of (A)H1N1 that caused me to be vaccinated after many many years.
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Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.

Last edited by Doug Huffman; 06-30-2020 at 04:20 AM.
  #1107  
Old 06-30-2020, 06:26 AM
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SeeYal SeeYal is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Fauci and many health experts say if there is no infected person in your household, there is no need to wear mask at home.

My working assumption is that indoor extended exposure (10+ minutes) with infected persons breathing out virus is needed to get infected, so mask up in those scenarios(and as mandated by state and store policies and such).
I lost confidence in the so called experts - (CDC and WHO whores)... Wrong models caused wrong decisions, and now the CDC seems to have acknowledged that they made a mistake and people with antibodies were counted positive... Zero trusts in experts who push medications that costs 1000's of $ while bashing cheaper alternative. Those experts get paid by big Pharma... like all the paid studies by interest groups... I will just do my thing.
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  #1108  
Old 06-30-2020, 07:10 AM
propchef propchef is offline
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Originally Posted by SeeYal View Post
I lost confidence in the so called experts - (CDC and WHO whores)... Wrong models caused wrong decisions, and now the CDC seems to have acknowledged that they made a mistake and people with antibodies were counted positive... Zero trusts in experts who push medications that costs 1000's of $ while bashing cheaper alternative. Those experts get paid by big Pharma... like all the paid studies by interest groups... I will just do my thing.

Anti-body tests (blood draw) and swab tests are very different. We’ve known since the beginning that anti-bodies being present only indicate that you’ve been exposed, not that you’re actively sick or even contagious.

The best drug tried out for treatment of symptoms is a common steroid, dexamethasone. It’s cheap.

Stop being ridiculous.


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  #1109  
Old 06-30-2020, 10:31 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by SeeYal View Post
I lost confidence in the so called experts - (CDC and WHO whores)... Wrong models caused wrong decisions, and now the CDC seems to have acknowledged that they made a mistake and people with antibodies were counted positive... Zero trusts in experts who push medications that costs 1000's of $ while bashing cheaper alternative. Those experts get paid by big Pharma... like all the paid studies by interest groups... I will just do my thing.
Fauci said that contact tracing is not working as community spread too wide spread and too many asymptomatic carriers.

Basically the "let it rip" and/or "do my thing" mentality is gradually breaking the medical countermeasures that costs $3T and 2 months of lock-down to build up.

Let's hope all the recovered COVID-19 patients(do note no drug has zero side effect) do not carry serious long-term side effects, or else the US recovered cohorts will pose a lengthy and costly drag on US for a long time to come.
  #1110  
Old 06-30-2020, 11:41 AM
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wow Fauci predicts 100k cases a day coming soon to US, that is plausible given latest number is already 40k a day.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...s-cant-control
  #1111  
Old 06-30-2020, 07:47 PM
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I'm a defenseman.
Don't let one get by the goalie! You still can drink while playing golf. Spinal rotation is good for your health too. The yoga saying is you are as young as your spine is flexible.

Improvise, adapt, overcome.
  #1112  
Old 06-30-2020, 08:45 PM
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Former CDD director Gottlieb says daily reported 40k cases translates to around 400k. At that rate the healthcare system of many locales can get saturated soon.

So going forward, the survival skill to master is really to minimize odds of needing ER/ICU and such.
  #1113  
Old 07-01-2020, 11:16 AM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Golf is not a sport.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zod View Post
Improvise, adapt, overcome.
Thank you Gunnery Sgt. Highway.
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  #1114  
Old 07-01-2020, 11:28 AM
wankel boy wankel boy is offline
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Originally Posted by SeeYal View Post
I lost confidence in the so called experts - (CDC and WHO whores)... Wrong models caused wrong decisions, and now the CDC seems to have acknowledged that they made a mistake and people with antibodies were counted positive..
YES. The models were wrong. I can forgive that. But when the data started coming in and we KNEW the models were wrong, we didn't correct our response. We also all agreed to this illegal lockdown to "flatten the curve" because we're good team player citizens. The whole point was to not overwhelm the hospitals, remember that? Overall hospitals were easily handing their loads.

We agreed to go along with this but we should have agreed to terms and conditions of what success looks like which would allow us to go back to living our lives. Instead we have Newsom arbitrarily closing down some (not all) beaches on July 4th and issuing unilateral mask orders.

WRT to the models and the data... There is a reason I started the AGW thread. We've seen warnings of dire, irreversible consequences of increasing atmospheric tree food food by 0.01% not come true for 30 years. At present I think we're all supposed to die in 9 years. These warnings have been based on models that have failed to predict what has actually happened. But the actions do not change. That's what 2020 is.
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  #1115  
Old 07-01-2020, 12:33 PM
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  #1116  
Old 07-01-2020, 12:58 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by wankel boy View Post
We agreed to go along with this but we should have agreed to terms and conditions of what success looks like which would allow us to go back to living our lives. Instead we have Newsom arbitrarily closing down some (not all) beaches on July 4th and issuing unilateral mask orders.
This brings up an interesting point, given seat belts are mandated to reduce traffic fatalities, some commentators(CNN?) question why masks cannot be mandated to reduce infections?

To answer this question, do note CHPs and local municipalities have no resource to fully enforce seat belt laws, and the same is true of mask laws.

It is the consistent message and education since day 1 of toddlers getting into cars and teens getting licenses that educate drivers and passengers to self-initiate to buckle-up worldwide.

In this dire time, the people in US arguing about simple effective bandages aka masks is somewhat embarrassing in the world stage ....
  #1117  
Old 07-01-2020, 02:28 PM
propchef propchef is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
This brings up an interesting point, given seat belts are mandated to reduce traffic fatalities, some commentators(CNN?) question why masks cannot be mandated to reduce infections?

To answer this question, do note CHPs and local municipalities have no resource to fully enforce seat belt laws, and the same is true of mask laws.

It is the consistent message and education since day 1 of toddlers getting into cars and teens getting licenses that educate drivers and passengers to self-initiate to buckle-up worldwide.

In this dire time, the people in US arguing about simple effective bandages aka masks is somewhat embarrassing in the world stage ....
Education is key, however, there is a large part of the population that insists on relying on "common sense" that is based on something they saw on FB or YoutTube.

Here's what I think many people overlook/don't understand: it's a health issue and can be enforced by the health department. The Fed issues guidelines. The State either accepts those guidelines or they write their own at an equal or higher standard. The guidelines are given to the local health and environmental service to craft final versions, implement, and enforce.

In order for a business to open, there are mandatory guidelines issued by the Health or Environmental agency in your jurisdiction. Failure to follow these guidelines leads to fines, closure, or loss of license. In the case of food establishments, there are a large number of requirements that can include cleaning and sanitizing the bathrooms every hour, only filling to 50% capacity or less, NOT ALLOWING PATRONS TO ENTER WITHOUT MASKS, cooks, and servers must wear masks and must be tested (the business pays for this since many testing programs are no longer free), hand sanitizer must be available and social distances MUST be clear and maintained.

There isn't going to be a mask police. Enforcement will happen by shutting down the business, just like we're seeing now. All of those idiots crying about wearing a mask should think about the cooks making their food who have to wear a mask through an 8-hour shift just so they can continue to work and pay bills, and many of them haven't been called back to work. And now things are worse, exactly as predicted.

Be kind to one another. Wear a mask.
  #1118  
Old 07-01-2020, 03:56 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by propchef View Post
Here's what I think many people overlook/don't understand: it's a health issue and can be enforced by the health department. The Fed issues guidelines. The State either accepts those guidelines or they write their own at an equal or higher standard. The guidelines are given to the local health and environmental service to craft final versions, implement, and enforce.
People do understand but hide behind Constitution and conspiracy theories to defy public health measures that other countries sees to have minimal issues enforcing(let alone citizens in those countries self-initiate even before government mandates).

It makes those defiant people of the land of the free look like self entitled cry babies....
  #1119  
Old 07-01-2020, 05:08 PM
zod zod is offline
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So we're agreed on the Asian winter breathing strategy then. This party isn't anywhere near over:
Minks on two fur farms in the Netherlands began getting sick in late April. Some were coughing, with runny noses; others had signs of severe respiratory disease. Soon, they started dying.

Researchers took swabs from the animals and dissected the ones that had died.

The culprit: SARS-COV-2, the novel coronavirus causing a global pandemic.

It's part of an emerging pattern of animals getting infected with the novel coronavirus with a new concern: The minks are thought to have passed the disease back to humans. Since the discovery, more than 500,000 minks have been culled on fur farms in the Netherlands over worries that their mink populations could spread the virus among humans.

https://www.wxxinews.org/post/dutch-...-infect-humans

Cats can get this too. This is not an easy bugger to bounder.

Here's some more science:

Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte.../F1.medium.gif

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422

Last edited by zod; 07-01-2020 at 05:23 PM.
  #1120  
Old 07-01-2020, 05:36 PM
zod zod is offline
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Golf is not a sport.



Thank you Gunnery Sgt. Highway.
My man, you can play speed golf by running between shots. My brothers and I could get nine in in less than hour if we had the course to ourselves. Carry whatever weight you need to keep your quads in shape. Improvise, adapt, overcome is a distillation of my experience in the IT Networking world at the tactical and operational layers. Highway made it mathematically simple.

If you're looking to hit people and get into fights, I'm not your huckleberry.
  #1121  
Old 07-03-2020, 12:02 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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YES. The models were wrong.
Cuomo once commented that NY now uses deterministic math/formulas to predict hospitalization and infections, ".... it is all math" is his words.

Just assume the models and maths are wrong. The only thing that matters really is ICU beds, and as reported several states are running out of such resources, in addition to PPEs and staffs and such.

CA is not in that stage yet, but A-OK to hellish was just a short few [email protected] ....

BTW GS's latest prediction of universal mask-up = 5% GDP seems to flip a switch at WH, so it is likely that reopening can resume after mask defiance is resolved.

Last edited by namelessman; 07-03-2020 at 09:57 AM.
  #1122  
Old 07-03-2020, 05:41 AM
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Scepticism and Animal Faith (1923)
Scepticism is the chastity of the intellect, and it is shameful to surrender it too soon or to the first comer: there is nobility in preserving it coolly and proudly through long youth, until at last, in the ripeness of instinct and discretion, it can be safely exchanged for fidelity and happiness.
(The Works of George Santayana p. 65)

Eschew eristical argumentation. I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it.
  #1123  
Old 07-03-2020, 11:40 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by Doug Huffman View Post
....
This quote is too deep to comprehend for mere mortals. ;p

As far as testing, now Fauci is talking about "herd testing", namely, swabs from a group of people will be lumped into one assay(?), and positive/negative results apply to the whole group.

If positive, each one in group will be retested individually.

If negative, the whole group will be labeled as A-OK.

At this stage, Fauci says contact tracing is useless esp. with widespread community infection, plus asymptomatic carriers.

But no worries, your locale being virus free zone is protected. In contrast, CA and TX and others will be seriously tested this weekend.
  #1124  
Old 07-03-2020, 01:06 PM
Oscar Oscar is offline
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...
The foundation of that quote, being the number of cases, is less than an ideal measure, thus ripe for negative feedback.

The number of deaths is the only number with high accuracy. Unfortunately, some states are steady, some have been rising.
  #1125  
Old 07-03-2020, 05:26 PM
zod zod is offline
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The models over here have the curve going to exponential again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo

Cumulative models are expected to be more accurate over time. Los Alamos and Columbia will generally be in the cream of the crop for different reasons. Los Alamos makes other private predictions. I don't know if Columbia does custom work.
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