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  #3076  
Old 05-20-2019, 11:23 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by SR22pilot View Post
You seem hung up on batteries that are made in Japan and ignore the Nevada Gigafactory. It seems to me that Tesla has worked to bring the technology to the US. I see actively working to bring technology in-house. I suspect Tesla would do more if they could afford to. Considering that the Bolt gets its entire drivetrain from LG, isn't it interesting that people focus on Tesla. Jaguar, Audi, Mercedes and others will get tax breaks that Tesla buyers won't. What did Tesla do wrong? The answer is that they were successful early and now the US government will help foreign companies play catch-up. No, I don't like that.

As for BMW, rooting for Tesla doesn't mean rooting against BMW. I was talking about cars made in Germany but, I made a mistake. I was thinking of the e-Tron which is made in Belgium. I do have a preference for companies founded here but, at times, they just aren't competitive (Ford). I find Tesla exciting because they are competitive.
There is a recent article that says Panasonic still sends 3 million cells to Nevada gigafactory a day, so to round up 6000 cells per Tesla, that is still 500 cars per day. Is Tesla current production level at 1000 per day Model 3+S+X combined? If those numbers are believable, the Nevada gigafactory battery manufacturing can only supply half of what Tesla consumes at this point.

My comment mainly is to address while Tesla fans say Americans should root for American companies supporting American jobs with American home grown tech.

It appears your post pinpoints the definition to be rooting for a American brand that employs global workforce and global resource and global tech to be a global winner, right? That is fair, it is just that once it enters global world stage, American or not seems to be moot from my perspective.

As far as fed credits, those are meant to get a manufacturer off the ground to provide EV solutions. Let's look at some rough guesses how much Tesla get:

200k units till Q2 2018 - $1.5B
100k units Q3-Q4 2018 - $0.75B(credit still 100%)
150k units Q1-Q2 2019 - $0.56B(credit at 50%)
150k units Q3-Q4 2019 - $0.28B(credit at 25%)

Total is around $3B of support.

Then there are states and local incentives on top of the fed $3B.

Do note these credits are meant to entice any manufacturer (US or otherwise) to achieve the fed/state mandates on clean air, and just subsidizing selected manufacturers(e.g. Tesla, or GM, etc, etc) while discouraging others from participating does not make sense to me.
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  #3077  
Old 05-20-2019, 03:39 PM
SR22pilot SR22pilot is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
There is a recent article that says Panasonic still sends 3 million cells to Nevada gigafactory a day, so to round up 6000 cells per Tesla, that is still 500 cars per day. Is Tesla current production level at 1000 per day Model 3+S+X combined? If those numbers are believable, the Nevada gigafactory battery manufacturing can only supply half of what Tesla consumes at this point.

My comment mainly is to address while Tesla fans say Americans should root for American companies supporting American jobs with American home grown tech.

It appears your post pinpoints the definition to be rooting for a American brand that employs global workforce and global resource and global tech to be a global winner, right? That is fair, it is just that once it enters global world stage, American or not seems to be moot from my perspective.

As far as fed credits, those are meant to get a manufacturer off the ground to provide EV solutions. Let's look at some rough guesses how much Tesla get:

200k units till Q2 2018 - $1.5B
100k units Q3-Q4 2018 - $0.75B(credit still 100%)
150k units Q1-Q2 2019 - $0.56B(credit at 50%)
150k units Q3-Q4 2019 - $0.28B(credit at 25%)

Total is around $3B of support.

Then there are states and local incentives on top of the fed $3B.

Do note these credits are meant to entice any manufacturer (US or otherwise) to achieve the fed/state mandates on clean air, and just subsidizing selected manufacturers(e.g. Tesla, or GM, etc, etc) while discouraging others from participating does not make sense to me.
First, Tesla employs about 45,000 with most of them in the US. They started manufacturing in the US and still intend to make cars for the US in the US. Yes, they are going global and yes I root for them. When it comes to Ford and GM I mostly pull for them to undergo a major change so they can be more relevant and maintain or even increase the US auto industry. Right now I find them myopic.

So, on to your continued battery hangup. The Model S and X use the 18650 cells made in Japan. When Tesla started they were small and had to buy cells where they could get them. They struck a deal with Panasonic. Guess what, the cells and batteries (and motors) in the Bolt aren't made in the US either. The Model 3 uses the 21700 cell which is made in Nevada. Batteries were originally constructed in Fremont using the 18650 cells from Japan. The Model 3 has always had its batteries made in Nevada using 21700 cells also made n Nevada. I don't know for certain but it is possible that S and X battery (not cell) production has moved to Nevada. While Musk has denied it, there are persistent rumors that the S and X will shift to 21700 cells which would increase the American content in the S and X. BTW, Tesla also makes their own seats which is unusual for a car manufacturer.

As far as incentives, I think they should be done one of two ways. One they should be available to all and end on a given date. They shouldn't punish a company for being early or successful. That is what is happening now. The second way would be the above combined with the incentive only for a car with American content. Because of cell supply issues that could be something like 30%. Only Tesla has access to lots of US made cells. In either case the incentive should come off the price of the car and not be a tax break. Some people don't have enough taxable income to realize the full tax break. Actually, I guess there is a third way. Get rid of EV incentives but also get rid of incentives on oil and gas. The IMF says fossil fuels were incentivized to the tune of 5.2 trillion dollars in 2017. In the US all you have to do is look at the tax breaks for drilling.

I'll continue to hope that Tesla does well and I guess you can hope they fail and those 45,000 people lose their jobs. My original statement was about how many people seem to root against Tesla and look for them to fail. That got you riled up. I stand by that. Just look at Seeking Alpha to see lots of FUD. Heck, over 10 years ago a site held a Tesla Death Watch. Oh yeah, I root for SpaceX too; oh, and Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. All of this brings back some of the excitement I felt in the 60's when the US believed it could be the best and strove to do great things. I also loved Silicon Valley at its peak and was lucky enough to participate. I love start-ups and I root for people who want to make a difference.

Since this is a BMW forum I thought I would post a few thoughts about them. I love BMW. I wish it had been a US company building the ultimate driving machines but at least they put a plant in South Carolina. I haven't always been fond of their reliability. A friend had terrible luck with his 12 cylinder 7 Series but his Z3 is still doing fine. I appreciate the way BMW differentiated themselves and, as a (not that log ago) relatively small manufacturer, increased in size by concentrating on the driving experience. I see no conflict in appreciate what BMW has achieved and rooting for Tesla.
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  #3078  
Old 05-21-2019, 11:46 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by SR22pilot View Post
The Model S and X use the 18650 cells made in Japan. When Tesla started they were small and had to buy cells where they could get them. They struck a deal with Panasonic. Guess what, the cells and batteries (and motors) in the Bolt aren't made in the US either. The Model 3 uses the 21700 cell which is made in Nevada. Batteries were originally constructed in Fremont using the 18650 cells from Japan. The Model 3 has always had its batteries made in Nevada using 21700 cells also made n Nevada. I don't know for certain but it is possible that S and X battery (not cell) production has moved to Nevada. While Musk has denied it, there are persistent rumors that the S and X will shift to 21700 cells which would increase the American content in the S and X. BTW, Tesla also makes their own seats which is unusual for a car manufacturer.
There have been reports that Panasonic is ready to switch from 18650 to 2170 too in Japanese factories, to supplement Nevada production, possibly for Model S and X.

Do note Tesla/Musk stated that Nevada plan is limited at 23GWh out of planned 35GWh capacity(and that 23GWh is likely 100% sunk into Model 3), so it not like new American made 2170 will show up magically to feed Model S and X demand with those 18650 switches to 2170. That's also why Musk said he is OK with any 2170 compatible source(currently those are all non-US).

https://electrek.co/2019/04/25/tesla...ll-production/
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  #3079  
Old 05-21-2019, 11:55 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by SR22pilot View Post
As far as incentives, I think they should be done one of two ways. One they should be available to all and end on a given date. They shouldn't punish a company for being early or successful. That is what is happening now. The second way would be the above combined with the incentive only for a car with American content. Because of cell supply issues that could be something like 30%. Only Tesla has access to lots of US made cells. In either case the incentive should come off the price of the car and not be a tax break. Some people don't have enough taxable income to realize the full tax break. Actually, I guess there is a third way. Get rid of EV incentives but also get rid of incentives on oil and gas. The IMF says fossil fuels were incentivized to the tune of 5.2 trillion dollars in 2017. In the US all you have to do is look at the tax breaks for drilling.
Incentives to gas and oil are not water cooler topics among my contacts, so there is no comment from me. My gut feel is gas and oil are doing quite well in this early stage of EV adoption, as renewable sources are not that prevalent yet, so electricity vendors still procure lots and lots of gas and oil to feed the electricity demand.

As far as EV rebates, the current fed credit setup is quite generous to the EV automakers, especially the "unlimited" units during phase-out periods. E.g. Tesla could have sold 1 million(and up?) units in Q3 and Q4 2018, and still qualify for 100% $7500 credits, provided there was no demand/supply constraints(obviously history showed that 1 million units did not happen).

My take is that the current EV fed credit setup still benefits early innovators, as they are supposed to grab significant market shares, plus build formidable tech moats around themselves.

It is up to interpretation how much the above 2 has Tesla achieved.
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  #3080  
Old 05-22-2019, 12:00 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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It is surprising that even Electrek says this:

"Now it's also becoming difficult to navigate Tesla's price structure because it changes so often."

https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla...l-s-x-changes/

BTW, those interested in Model S and X should note that there is another $2000 price cut, plus unlimited free supercharging, for inventory units.
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  #3081  
Old 05-22-2019, 06:02 AM
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I'm surprised this thread has over 3000 contributions... Morgan Stanley also had something to say about Tesla stocks today and it's not uplifting.

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  #3082  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:29 AM
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Motortrend: 2019 BMW 3 Series vs Tesla Model 3 vs Genesis G70 Comparison Test

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesl...mparison-test/
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  #3083  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:25 PM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ing-epic-shift

This is an interesting development:

"BMW AG Chief Executive Officer Harald Krueger's job is on the line over concerns he's not aggressive enough in steering the luxury carmaker's titanic shift toward electric and autonomous vehicles, people familiar with the matter said."

As much as Tesla is embroiled in its struggles with production, suppliers(e.g. Panasonic), Wall Street, Main Street(e.g. demand, AP confusion, price cuts), etc, etc, BMW is in its own crossroads,figuring out its place in this shifting landscape.

This reminds me of another controversial article from 2 years ago that talks about an all-hands-on-deck rally at BMW Munich to fend off the electric assault. This latest news of BMW CEO in the crosshair does feel like coming full circle.

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...are-employees/
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  #3084  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:40 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by Dio///M View Post
I'm surprised this thread has over 3000 contributions... Morgan Stanley also had something to say about Tesla stocks today and it's not uplifting.

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This thread was started on the F30 sub-forum in July 2017 and was moved to this General Auto sub-forum early this year.

Morgan Stanley did update its worst case price target of TSLA to $10, but my gut feel is that Tesla can be acquired way before TSLA hits $10.
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  #3085  
Old 05-22-2019, 11:41 PM
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If I could have been able to afford a Model 3, I would have bought it.

I love my BMW and have always loved them (when they are working) but that model 3 is better is pretty much every appreciable way, at least if you are buying or leasing brand new.

This will probably be my last petrol car in fact, I plan on keeping it 3-5 years then I'll go with electric.
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  #3086  
Old 05-23-2019, 12:02 AM
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If I could have been able to afford a Model 3, I would have bought it.

I love my BMW and have always loved them (when they are working) but that model 3 is better is pretty much every appreciable way, at least if you are buying or leasing brand new.

This will probably be my last petrol car in fact, I plan on keeping it 3-5 years then I'll go with electric.
My thinking is that starting 2020 there will be a sizable shift to EVs of all makes, and that momentum may actually help Tesla.
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  #3087  
Old 05-23-2019, 12:41 AM
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Followup video to below:

https://www.motortrend.com/video-sho.../bd/0_h4frgu24

"The Breakdown: How Did We Choose the Best $50K Sports Sedan?"

Strange world we live in - Motortrend's testing and comparison places G20 3 series behind both Kia & Tesla in the category BMW invented and defined for so long.

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Motortrend: 2019 BMW 3 Series vs Tesla Model 3 vs Genesis G70 Comparison Test

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesl...mparison-test/
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  #3088  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:17 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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This review of G20 versus Model 3 MR is interesting(Part 1 and Part 2). Part [email protected]:20 is their views of how the 2 cars differ, and those views math with most of the experience of the non-track DD crowd among my contacts.


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  #3089  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:26 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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This is an review from the same guys on G20 versus Model 3 autopark, plus G20's reverse assist. The G20 parked vertically on a parallel spot!

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6x...ULqU1UlqH9FgNg

The G20 reverse assist looks useful, although it is unclear to me if it adjusts at all when the surroundings(e.g. cars, obstacles) change from the time the "forward" path was recorded.

Last edited by namelessman; 05-23-2019 at 01:30 AM.
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  #3090  
Old 05-23-2019, 10:58 AM
Michael Schott Michael Schott is online now
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My thinking is that starting 2020 there will be a sizable shift to EVs of all makes, and that momentum may actually help Tesla.
2020 is extremely optimistic. What high volume EV’s do you see being introduced in the next year?
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  #3091  
Old 05-23-2019, 11:30 AM
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I don’t think a single “high volume” vehicle will hit mainstream markets.

What I THINK he means is we may see a cumulative “high volume” of E.V. offerings on the market.

Look at BMW for example. “I” may be a configuration offered for many of their models.
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  #3092  
Old 05-23-2019, 11:42 AM
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2020 is extremely optimistic. What high volume EV's do you see being introduced in the next year?
The comment in post#3089 says "starting 2020", given 200-mile range offerings from Mini, Nissan, VW, and others will start to roll out.
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  #3093  
Old 05-23-2019, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by FCBayernFTW View Post
I don’t think a single “high volume” vehicle will hit mainstream markets.

What I THINK he means is we may see a cumulative “high volume” of E.V. offerings on the market.

Look at BMW for example. “I” may be a configuration offered for many of their models.
Your interpretation is spot on.

To quote a fellow fester Mr. Huffman:

"I am responsible for what I write, not for your understanding of it."
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  #3094  
Old 05-23-2019, 12:56 PM
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PHEVs with higher range will steal a lot of market share from BEVs in the near future. BMW announced an X5 with 50 miles range, which is good enough for weekdays for most. Road trips can be covered by the ICE with no range anxiety.
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  #3095  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:04 PM
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PHEVs with higher range will steal a lot of market share from BEVs in the near future. BMW announced an X5 with 50 miles range, which is good enough for weekdays for most. Road trips can be covered by the ICE with no range anxiety.
There are a couple of things I don't like about hybrids. First, having the additional weight of two different power sources makes them heavier, hurting performance in all regards. Second, the level of complexity of the vehicle increases substantially from the already ridiculously complex state of current ICE cars. I think the cost to repair these vehicles down the road will eventually make them throw away cars.
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  #3096  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:16 PM
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There are a couple of things I don't like about hybrids. First, having the additional weight of two different power sources makes them heavier, hurting performance in all regards. Second, the level of complexity of the vehicle increases substantially from the already ridiculously complex state of current ICE cars. I think the cost to repair these vehicles down the road will eventually make them throw away cars.
There is no additional weight for PHEVs compared to BEVs.

What wears out an ICE engine is the cold starts and the first 5 minutes of driving with cold engine. Since a long range PHEV uses the engine on long trips only, the car needs little maintenance. Many taxis that run 24hours and never cool down reach 500k miles easily without any major engine repair.
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  #3097  
Old 05-23-2019, 01:19 PM
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Interesting, given the question of what they'd pick if BMW made an all electric 3 series that drove as well as the Tesla both of them in the end would still pick a Tesla but each for different reasons.

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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
This review of G20 versus Model 3 MR is interesting(Part 1 and Part 2). Part [email protected]:20 is their views of how the 2 cars differ, and those views math with most of the experience of the non-track DD crowd among my contacts.


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  #3098  
Old 05-23-2019, 02:03 PM
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Interesting, given the question of what they'd pick if BMW made an all electric 3 series that drove as well as the Tesla both of them in the end would still pick a Tesla but each for different reasons.
Yes one leans towards Tesla for spacious and relaxing experience, the other picks Tesla for AP + FSD experience.

For someone (e.g. myself) who is impartial to AP/FSD, and wants a bit more engaging experience than typical Tesla A to B(as suggested by the reviewers), the BMW EV can be a good option.
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  #3099  
Old 05-23-2019, 03:06 PM
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There is no additional weight for PHEVs compared to BEVs.
BMW disagrees with you, at least on the 5 series where the specs are available today. According to BMW, a 530i xDrive weighs 3,926 pounds while a 530e xDrive weighs 4,407 pounds. Also, while BMW claims an electric only range of 28.5 miles, the EPA says it's actually 15 miles. To get a real 50 miles of electric only range out of it would involve a lot more batteries increasing the weight even more.

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What wears out an ICE engine is the cold starts and the first 5 minutes of driving with cold engine. Since a long range PHEV uses the engine on long trips only, the car needs little maintenance. Many taxis that run 24hours and never cool down reach 500k miles easily without any major engine repair.
It isn't the basic engine itself wearing out that I'm concerned about; it's all the various bits and pieces breaking after a while. Things like having to replace the entire cooling system every 100,000 miles, or less or having virtually everything plastic or rubber under the hood dying after 100,000 miles, or automatic transmissions that die after 100 to 150 thousand miles. Carbon build up in intake manifolds, leaky valve cover gaskets, rebuilding VANOS systems, and on and on and on. Yeah, the basic engine block may be good for 500k, but plenty of other parts are not.

Also, in real life, it is an infinitesimally small number of people who drive their cars like taxis. Cooling down and heating up the engine is an everyday occurrence, if not multiple times per day.

As for the engine on a PHEV only being used on long range trips, that's nonsense unless you consider anything more than 15 miles long range in the case of the 530e. It's also nonsense because almost all of them use the gas engine whenever the car is driven in an even mildly aggressive manner, like accelerating on to the freeway for instance. In fact, the gas engine in most PHEVs frequently cycles on and off.

Last edited by GregD; 05-23-2019 at 03:16 PM.
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  #3100  
Old 05-23-2019, 03:10 PM
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Yes one leans towards Tesla for spacious and relaxing experience, the other picks Tesla for AP + FSD experience.

For someone (e.g. myself) who is impartial to AP/FSD, and wants a bit more engaging experience than typical Tesla A to B(as suggested by the reviewers), the BMW EV can be a good option.
For me, I didn't care at all about the "relaxing experience" or the "AP/FSD"; the primary thing I was concerned about was the driving experience, and that is where I think the Tesla Model 3 handily beats its competition from BMW, Audi, Mercedes, etc. The drivetrain works substantially better, the suspension has a better ride/handling compromise, and the steering has better feel. The driving experience was the number one factor that convinced me to buy the Model 3.

Last edited by GregD; 05-23-2019 at 03:13 PM.
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