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  #76  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:07 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by sunny5280 View Post
Assuming the Model 3 has a 60 kWh battery it would cost $9.60 to charge it ($.16 x 60 = 9.6). If the battery had a range of 220 miles that works out to .044 cents per mile. A Prius will cost .045 cents per mile (assuming $2.25 /gallon [price at the corner gas station near me] and 50 MPG (easily achieved). An entry level Prius costs significantly less than the Model 3.
To be specific, it is $0.044 and $0.045, or 4.4 cents and 4.5 cents.

If these numbers are believable, then what will be the benefits of a Prius, besides the fact that the market has not warmed up to Bolt and such?
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  #77  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
To be specific, it is $0.044 and $0.045, or 4.4 cents and 4.5 cents.
Doh! I got so caught up in not using the dollar sign I forgot to move the decimal!

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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
If these numbers are believable, then what will be the benefits of a Prius, besides the fact that the market has not warmed up to Bolt and such?
Presumably the Prius would be a lower cost to acquire (depends on incentives one can obtain with the Model 3 / Bolt) and no range anxiety. Personally I like the idea of an all electric vehicle but they're not there yet...at least not as an only vehicle.
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  #78  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:18 PM
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It'll be a snowy day in July before I go electric.
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  #79  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:25 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Originally Posted by FaRKle! View Post
Could you be remembering the napkin-math comparison billnchristy, you, and I had last year (start at post 18)?
Thats probably what I remember, yep. Thanks for pulling it up! My numbers have changed just a tad (my solar is a lease, so its gone up 1 cent this year top 16c). Southern Ca Edison has also changed electricity tiers, only 3 total... but most people will be in tier 2 which (I think) is 25c a KW. (tiers are 16, 25, 31c). So, any calculation on actual savings for someone on edison and NOT on solar should be done at 25c which is where basically anyone not on solar would be.

@Namelessmans rate calc I get 7.25c a mile. So 7.25c a mile vs 10c a mile for gas. Still cheaper than I thought actually (@namelessman, thanks for taking the time to look up those mpg and kw per mile calcs).

@Sunny, yep I think many of the people who previously bought tesla's are into the green aspect. I am "kinda" into it, but not at the expense of any kind of sizable hit to my wallet. I also feel like I would be the perfect candidate.. 80 mile round trip to work, solar, so 16c a KW and not 25 or 31c, etc.

I AM intrigued by the idea, but I was not intrigued enough to put a reservation down. A "car guy" at my job did though... he has a jag F type R atm, and a 4 runner as a home depot car. He put his reservation day 1, and expects to get one at the end of this year or early next, and hes looking forward to it.

I read that MT article, and it confirmed that the car I would be looking at would be close to 55-60k (no where near 35k). Thats ok though, as I am not as enthused for a 90-100k Model S.

Back to the original point.. the Tesla brand currently has some cachet. I think Tesla has the "brand cachet" to get people who are interested in the badge (we KNOW they are out there, lets not pretend they arent).

Tesla is "cooler" than toyota or honda, so I think a lot of step up buyers might consider them.... so it might eat into sales for the 320s and 328s, especially for the technology loving crowd. "Killer" no.. but "impact"? maybe a little....
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Last edited by jjrandorin; 07-29-2017 at 03:32 PM.
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  #80  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:38 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
@Namelessmans rate calc I get 7.25c a mile. So 7.25c a mile vs 10c a mile for gas. Still cheaper than I thought actually (@namelessman, thanks for taking the time to look up those mpg and kw per mile calcs).
P&E seems to have plug-in off-peak rate of $0.12/kW. My Tier 1 rate is around $0.18-0.19/kW.

https://www.pge.com/tariffs/tm2/pdf/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV.pdf

Last edited by namelessman; 07-29-2017 at 03:40 PM.
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  #81  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:50 PM
dromader dromader is offline
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I toot the plunge to model S

I rarely post but I had to ... I was a skeptic then 2 months ago I tool the plunge "parked" my 340xi and got a Tesla Model S. I'm not joking my BMW is literally parked and I'm not planning to drive it soon and 2 things are responsible for that 1) tesla's acceleration is sick roller-coaster like 2) not stopping for gas amazing. I'm lucky I have a service center 5 miles from my house so if I have issues is easy. Model 3 will be even better than the S, unfortunately I had no patience so I got the S but my wife's next car is a 3. My suggestion, go for a test drive then decide!
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  #82  
Old 07-29-2017, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
Thats probably what I remember, yep. Thanks for pulling it up! My numbers have changed just a tad (my solar is a lease, so its gone up 1 cent this year top 16c). Southern Ca Edison has also changed electricity tiers, only 3 total... but most people will be in tier 2 which (I think) is 25c a KW. (tiers are 16, 25, 31c). So, any calculation on actual savings for someone on edison and NOT on solar should be done at 25c which is where basically anyone not on solar would be.

@Namelessmans rate calc I get 7.25c a mile. So 7.25c a mile vs 10c a mile for gas. Still cheaper than I thought actually (@namelessman, thanks for taking the time to look up those mpg and kw per mile calcs).

@Sunny, yep I think many of the people who previously bought tesla's are into the green aspect. I am "kinda" into it, but not at the expense of any kind of sizable hit to my wallet. I also feel like I would be the perfect candidate.. 80 mile round trip to work, solar, so 16c a KW and not 25 or 31c, etc.

I AM intrigued by the idea, but I was not intrigued enough to put a reservation down. A "car guy" at my job did though... he has a jag F type R atm, and a 4 runner as a home depot car. He put his reservation day 1, and expects to get one at the end of this year or early next, and hes looking forward to it.

I read that MT article, and it confirmed that the car I would be looking at would be close to 55-60k (no where near 35k). Thats ok though, as I am not as enthused for a 90-100k Model S.

Back to the original point.. the Tesla brand currently has some cachet. I think Tesla has the "brand cachet" to get people who are interested in the badge (we KNOW they are out there, lets not pretend they arent).

Tesla is "cooler" than toyota or honda, so I think a lot of step up buyers might consider them.... so it might eat into sales for the 320s and 328s, especially for the technology loving crowd. "Killer" no.. but "impact"? maybe a little....
Tesla has other models besides the S and the 3. My friend bought a Model 60 (60kWh battery). I don't know what he paid for it but it's inline with what a lot of people pay for a BMW. He's a little on the green side (has solar for his home) so it was worth it to him to buy the Model 60 (he didn't think the $9K upgrade to the Model 75 was worth it but he can always do it by giving them his CC number and they'll upgrade it to a Model 75 over the air)
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  #83  
Old 07-29-2017, 04:32 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by dromader View Post
I rarely post but I had to ... I was a skeptic then 2 months ago I tool the plunge "parked" my 340xi and got a Tesla Model S. I'm not joking my BMW is literally parked and I'm not planning to drive it soon and 2 things are responsible for that 1) tesla's acceleration is sick roller-coaster like 2) not stopping for gas amazing. I'm lucky I have a service center 5 miles from my house so if I have issues is easy. Model 3 will be even better than the S, unfortunately I had no patience so I got the S but my wife's next car is a 3. My suggestion, go for a test drive then decide!
Good to hear a F30 owner's experience with Tesla.

To me the time to get to gas pumps and keep abreast of BMW's kinks and oddities(e.g. recalls, ELWs, emission warranties, most frequent failures, etc, etc) matter, so if there is a car that requires minimal maintenance/repair and no pump time, it will be of value to me.

The Model S is a bit big, and not quite $60k+ quality to me. At $35k base, the Model 3, even as bare bone go-cart with enough safety + tech + handling + ease of operations will be of interest to me.

Obviously having a good service network, and staying in business also matter. My usual routes are close to multiple service centers and factory(for factory delivery and tour), so the service experience should be similar to other makes.
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  #84  
Old 07-29-2017, 05:59 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Good to hear a F30 owner's experience with Tesla.

To me the time to get to gas pumps and keep abreast of BMW's kinks and oddities(e.g. recalls, ELWs, emission warranties, most frequent failures, etc, etc) matter, so if there is a car that requires minimal maintenance/repair and no pump time, it will be of value to me.

The Model S is a bit big, and not quite $60k+ quality to me. At $35k base, the Model 3, even as bare bone go-cart with enough safety + tech + handling + ease of operations will be of interest to me.

Obviously having a good service network, and staying in business also matter. My usual routes are close to multiple service centers and factory(for factory delivery and tour), so the service experience should be similar to other makes.
It does not seem to me that an electric vehicle would fit your current "buy and hold" strategy, given the advancements that are likely in this space in the short term. Does that concern you at all?
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  #85  
Old 07-29-2017, 08:05 PM
Mark in NoVA Mark in NoVA is offline
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"The federal electric car tax credit is only available in the year that you put the car in service, and you can't carry the credit from year-to-year. It will only pay for any federal tax you owe, so if you are only required to pay $3,000 of federal income tax for the tax year in which you purchased the car, you can only take a $3,000 credit. This vehicle is eligible for $7,500 tax credit." So...If I paid $7,500 in taxes throughout the year I would get a refund on that when I file? Or is it not that simple?
It's not that simple.

If the calculated tax on line 44 of your 1040 is greater than $7500, you'll get a $7500 credit on taxes. If not, the credit will offset your taxes (line 44) and increase any refund or decrease taxes owed. It's the actual tax calculation, not your withholding.

Although I find it hard to fathom that anyone who could buy a Tesla wouldn't pay $7500 in federal income tax.
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  #86  
Old 07-29-2017, 08:07 PM
bimmerbingo bimmerbingo is offline
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Give me a high-end Tesla and I'll trade/sell it for a sports gasoline powered vehicle (M, AMG, F-Type.) etc in a heartbeat!!!
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  #87  
Old 07-29-2017, 09:16 PM
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I hear people say that electric cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE cars yet the maintenance package for a Tesla is a lot more than Audi's maintenance package.
https://www.audiusa.com/content/dam/...ombined_j2.pdf
https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla...tenance-plans/
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  #88  
Old 07-29-2017, 09:29 PM
CALWATERBOY DUE CALWATERBOY DUE is offline
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I hear people say that electric cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE cars yet the maintenance package for a Tesla is a lot more than Audi's maintenance package.
https://www.audiusa.com/content/dam/...ombined_j2.pdf
https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla...tenance-plans/

OK -- Right off the bat I see A/C Desiccant Bag Replacement.

ˇHijole! No wonder they expensive.
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  #89  
Old 07-29-2017, 09:52 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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It does not seem to me that an electric vehicle would fit your current "buy and hold" strategy, given the advancements that are likely in this space in the short term. Does that concern you at all?
My thinking is that with the 8-yr/unlimited-mile battery warranty, the car can be a *****and-hold candidate for 8 years of utility.
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  #90  
Old 07-29-2017, 10:12 PM
CALWATERBOY DUE CALWATERBOY DUE is offline
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My thinking is that with the 8-yr/unlimited-mile battery warranty, the car can be a *****and-hold candidate for 8 years of utility.

I'm thinking: Electronics & control mechanics are undergoing a radical shift.

Audi, Honda, Toyota, and Nissan all claim they will offer Level 4 autonomy for the 2020 model year. With all Japanese heavies in, expect exponential growth.

So. That's just a little over 2 years away - advise against buy a-cause will be obsolete way too soon. Except Tesla. Maybe. Leasing's your best hedge....


.

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  #91  
Old 07-29-2017, 10:22 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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I'm thinking: Electronics & control mechanics are undergoing a radical shift.

Audi, Honda, Toyota, and Nissan all claim they will offer Level 4 autonomy for the 2020 model year. With all Japanese heavies in, expect exponential growth.

So. That's just a little over 2 years away - advise against buy a-cause will be obsolete way too soon.


.
Without a reservation#, the realistic wait time to get a Model 3 will be 2+ years anyway, given 2018 factory capacity guesstimated as 250k units plus a backlog of 500k units.
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  #92  
Old 07-29-2017, 10:56 PM
kevin_legge kevin_legge is offline
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Without a reservation#, the realistic wait time to get a Model 3 will be 2+ years anyway, given 2018 factory capacity guesstimated as 250k units plus a backlog of 500k units.


Actually it was reported that musk anticipates 10k units per week or 500k units per year....QC may be an issue not to mention supply chain. Maybe that's where all the parts went for our auto closing trunks that the 2017's did not have.


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  #93  
Old 07-29-2017, 11:26 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Actually it was reported that musk anticipates 10k units per week or 500k units per year....QC may be an issue not to mention supply chain. Maybe that's where all the parts went for our auto closing trunks that the 2017's did not have.
Tesla currently only has one plant, which peaked at less than 430k units under Toyota. Some disputed that Tesla can churn out more than that number. Even if it does hit 500k, that capacity will need to be shared among S, X, and 3, one guesstimate puts Model 3 capacity at around 250k per year(before new factories can start churning).

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  #94  
Old 07-29-2017, 11:59 PM
kevin_legge kevin_legge is offline
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Without a reservation#, the realistic wait time to get a Model 3 will be 2+ years anyway, given 2018 factory capacity guesstimated as 250k units plus a backlog of 500k units.


Per Forbes magazine a direct quote from Musk.

Tesla stated in its most recent "Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2016 Update" released in February that "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

Just a FYI


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  #95  
Old 07-30-2017, 12:15 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by kevin_legge View Post
Per Forbes magazine a direct quote from Musk.

Tesla stated in its most recent "Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2016 Update" released in February that "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

Just a FYI
Yes that is the claim from Musk, but some have doubts. The first test will be 5000 per week in Q4, which starts in Sept, a few weeks away?
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  #96  
Old 07-30-2017, 12:50 AM
CALWATERBOY DUE CALWATERBOY DUE is offline
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Without a reservation#, the realistic wait time to get a Model 3 will be 2+ years anyway, given 2018 factory capacity guesstimated as 250k units plus a backlog of 500k units.

Tesla, yes --- Honda, no.

Are those Tesla deposits refundable? Japanese autonomy changes the game, big time. Far more important & attractive than electric propulsion.
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  #97  
Old 07-30-2017, 01:36 AM
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Just FYI

The base version starts from $35,000. This gets an estimated range of 220 miles, does 0-60mph in 5.6s and tops out at 130mph. It’ll ‘supercharge’ to 130 miles of range in 30 minutes, or 30 miles of range per hour on a home charger.

The second version is dubbed ‘Long Range’, and is a $9,000 option over the base car’s $35k (so $44k in total).The battery now gives 310 miles of range, does 0-60mph in 5.1s and tops out at 140mph.

Spend $5,000 on the Premium upgrade pack, and you get heated, 12-way adjustable seats, wood detailing, a ‘premium’ audio setup (surround, sub, tweeters etc), a tinted glass roof, LED fogs, and a covered centre console.

Another $5,000 gets you Enhanced Autopilot, that matches traffic speed, keeps you in your lane, changes lanes, goes from one motorway to the next, leaves the motorway and parks at your destination. Add $3k to this $5k and you get full self-driving capability, that requires “no action by the person in the driver’s seat”.

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  #98  
Old 07-30-2017, 05:17 AM
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Since the massive do everything screen is in the middle, it would have been nice to offer a heads up display.
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  #99  
Old 07-30-2017, 06:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Dio///M View Post
Just FYI

The base version starts from $35,000. This gets an estimated range of 220 miles, does 0-60mph in 5.6s and tops out at 130mph. It’ll ‘supercharge’ to 130 miles of range in 30 minutes, or 30 miles of range per hour on a home charger.

The second version is dubbed ‘Long Range’, and is a $9,000 option over the base car’s $35k (so $44k in total).The battery now gives 310 miles of range, does 0-60mph in 5.1s and tops out at 140mph.

Spend $5,000 on the Premium upgrade pack, and you get heated, 12-way adjustable seats, wood detailing, a ‘premium’ audio setup (surround, sub, tweeters etc), a tinted glass roof, LED fogs, and a covered centre console.

Another $5,000 gets you Enhanced Autopilot, that matches traffic speed, keeps you in your lane, changes lanes, goes from one motorway to the next, leaves the motorway and parks at your destination. Add $3k to this $5k and you get full self-driving capability, that requires “no action by the person in the driver’s seat”.

Thanks for pulling together the option costs

I wonder how many people know that the range quoted is given a certain speed? A few years ago I was looking into Model S and range. Tesla had a range estimator in their website. The stated range was at like 55 MPH (which no one drives on an open freeway in my area). As I moved the speed up, the mileage went down, and it would not let me slide the MPH past 70. The average speed on Interstate 15 by my home (non rush hour) is 80 MPH. The actual posted speed limit is 70 MPH and, on average, people drive about 10 MPH over. Going "fast" on this stretch of road is 90.

So, the 300 mile range was more like 150 at speeds around 80 MPH, and I always think of those numbers like EPA estimates... so I was guessing that if I had a 300 Mile range tesla model S, I would get somewhere around 120-140 miles of actual round trip range at the normal speeds I drive.

To combat my own range anxiety I would have to have the bigger battery version (the long ranger). It feels to me like most people would want that one, unless they live in the city (for example, northern cali on the bay side, where tesla's are almost like BMWs in ubiquity).
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  #100  
Old 07-30-2017, 08:08 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by Dio///M View Post
Just FYI

The base version starts from $35,000. This gets an estimated range of 220 miles, does 0-60mph in 5.6s and tops out at 130mph. It’ll ‘supercharge’ to 130 miles of range in 30 minutes, or 30 miles of range per hour on a home charger.

The second version is dubbed ‘Long Range’, and is a $9,000 option over the base car’s $35k (so $44k in total).The battery now gives 310 miles of range, does 0-60mph in 5.1s and tops out at 140mph.

Spend $5,000 on the Premium upgrade pack, and you get heated, 12-way adjustable seats, wood detailing, a ‘premium’ audio setup (surround, sub, tweeters etc), a tinted glass roof, LED fogs, and a covered centre console.

Another $5,000 gets you Enhanced Autopilot, that matches traffic speed, keeps you in your lane, changes lanes, goes from one motorway to the next, leaves the motorway and parks at your destination. Add $3k to this $5k and you get full self-driving capability, that requires “no action by the person in the driver’s seat”.
This is great info. So does $35k base include LED headlights, leather seat, and moonroof? Those are the options that will be of interest to me.

As far as tech, it does puzzle me if BMW and now Tesla's high-priced driver techs that cost $5000 are any better than Honda sensing for $2000. So does BMW and Tesla's radar sense twice as far and twice as fast as Honda's? There seems to be no objective numbers to quantify the price differences ....
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