Model 3 starts delivery, is that really the 3-series killer? - Page 147 - Bimmerfest - BMW Forums



Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > Everything Else > General Automotive Forum

General Automotive Forum
All non-BMW car talk goes here...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #3651  
Old 10-13-2019, 12:30 AM
acoste's Avatar
acoste acoste is online now
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: California
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 5,395
Mein Auto: 2010 550i MT
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Teslas have both radar and cameras for longer ranges. Improving the computer power, and the algorithms that computer uses, will improve the results from the sensor suite. That is a fact.
The radar in these cars have very coarse vertical resolution. It can't distinguish between a reflection from a pothole versus a pedestrian. To make it worse, a person lying on the ground is a totally lost case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Tesla's engineers seem to think it will be sufficient; time will whether they are right or wrong.
No, they don't think current sensor suite is sufficient. They don't talk to the media. Elon Musk talks to the media.
__________________
__________________
2010 BMW 550i MT
2003 BMW 325i @216k and counting
1998 BMW 528i MT @ 231k //sold
1997 Saab 9000 //sold
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
  #3652  
Old 10-13-2019, 12:54 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
It is unclear what is the difference of your trip planner versus Tesla's own planner, which gives the attached route below, with 5 stops, and charge times of 30, 25, 35, 20, 45 minutes respectively. So Tesla's own estimate is a total of 16 hours

Maybe you can plug this itinerary into your car and see what it says?

Your 12.5 hours for 814 miles in an ICE is with constant 65mph, even adding 30 minutes for 3 stops(and 10 minutes per stop to refuel and bathroom breaks) is only 12.5 + 0.5 = 13 hours, or the Model 3 still takes extra 3 hours.

(With Model 3 LR)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO), San Francisco, CA 94128, USA
Corning, CA, 30 min charge
Mount Shasta, CA - 111 Morgan Way, 25 min charge
Grants Pass, OR, 35 min charge
Springfield, OR - Kruse Way, 30 min charge
Vancouver, WA, 45 min charge
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), 17801 International Blvd, Seattle, WA 98158, USA
Duration: 16 h (814 mi)
https://abetterrouteplanner.com/
Reply With Quote
  #3653  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:02 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Well as mentioned in post#3650, the same route with Model 3 LR on abetterouteplanner gives the same results as Tesla's trip planner, with 5 stops, instead of the 3 stops in your post#3647!

But abetterouteplanner's trip time of 14:43 and 1:14 of charge time is more optimistic than Tesla's own estimate.

Maybe Tesla's own result is more accurate than 3rd party trip planner?!?

https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?pla...1-4c601950c09b

Last edited by namelessman; 10-13-2019 at 01:06 AM.
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
  #3654  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:05 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Have u experience kids going to college with lots of stuff to transport? BTW the 3000-mile trip on a EV was first proposed by you!
As you know, I was just comparing relative costs, primarily between the Electrify America and Tesla Supercharger networks. I just tossed in the ICE example for a cost comparison. I wasn't suggesting that any EV today could beat a good ICE run on time for a cross country run. In fact, I have specifically stated the opposite multiple times in this thread. Sometimes when we get older, memory tends to . . .

Actually, a 3000 mile road trip only makes sense as a recreational trip with sight seeing and visiting mixed in. If your goal is to get from point A to point B quickly, take a plane.

And yes, I do have experience taking kids to college with a bunch of stuff, and no regular sedan, including a Model 3 would have cut it. For all the stuff, you need a good sized SUV, pickup truck, minivan, or something larger. A Model X might work, depending on the kid, and it could be a fun trip if you took your time and did some sightseeing along the way. Ignore this suggestion if your trip would be primarily in west Texas or large parts of the Midwest where there's really nothing to see for mile after mile after mile. In that case, the sooner you get it over with, the better.

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 01:12 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3655  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:09 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by acoste View Post
The radar in these cars have very coarse vertical resolution. It can't distinguish between a reflection from a pothole versus a pedestrian. To make it worse, a person lying on the ground is a totally lost case.

No, they don't think current sensor suite is sufficient. They don't talk to the media. Elon Musk talks to the media.
Can you reveal your inside source that doesn't talk to the media?
Reply With Quote
  #3656  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:19 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
And yes, I do have experience taking kids to college with a bunch of stuff, and no regular sedan, including a Model 3 would have cut it.
One typical scenario is that the kids bring their cars to college too, hence the long drive(e.g. cross country) with whole car packed. And it depends on the urgency of the trip too, e.g. late admission from waitlist, hence have to show up for orientation in short notice, with leisure time to cruise around?

Last edited by namelessman; 10-13-2019 at 01:21 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3657  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:24 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Well as mentioned in post#3650, the same route with Model 3 LR on abetterouteplanner gives the same results as Tesla's trip planner, with 5 stops, instead of the 3 stops in your post#3647!

But abetterouteplanner's trip time of 14:43 and 1:14 of charge time is more optimistic than Tesla's own estimate.

Maybe Tesla's own result is more accurate than 3rd party trip planner?!?

https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?pla...1-4c601950c09b
No, abetterrouteplanner is more accurate and more useful than Tesla's. If you look at Tesla versus abetterrouteplanner, the big difference is in the charging times, and Tesla's numbers are way off. It looks like Tesla never updated their planner to account for the 150kW Superchargers and the improved charging curves that they've made to Model 3s in later versions of the firmware.

And I'm afraid I did what you did when it came to comparing apples and oranges in my prior comparison. I had changed the settings on the abetterrouteplanner to more accurately reflect my personal experience and driving style, and my level of comfort with low charge levels. It remembers your changed settings in your browser, and I didn't think to change them back before running the plan. If you kick the reference consumption down to 250, the start depart charge to 100%, the charger min arrival to 5%, and the battery degradation to 2%, you'll get the numbers that I posted previously. Still, my changes only made 12 minutes difference to the total trip time.
Reply With Quote
  #3658  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:26 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
One typical scenario is that the kids bring their cars to college too, hence the long drive(e.g. cross country) with whole car packed. And it depends on the urgency of the trip too, e.g. late admission from waitlist, hence have to show up for orientation in short notice, with leisure time to cruise around?
Send the kid ahead by plane, drive the car to college at your leisure, and fly back. For a few days, the kid can live out of a suitcase. And you'll even have more room to pack stuff in the car.
Reply With Quote
  #3659  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:38 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Send the kid ahead by plane, drive the car to college at your leisure, and fly back. For a few days, the kid can live out of a suitcase. And you'll even have more room to pack stuff in the car.
Well just run the above by your loved ones and brace for the disdain and despair.
Reply With Quote
  #3660  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:41 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
And I'm afraid I did what you did when it came to comparing apples and oranges in my prior comparison. I had changed the settings on the abetterrouteplanner to more accurately reflect my personal experience and driving style, and my level of comfort with low charge levels. It remembers your changed settings in your browser, and I didn't think to change them back before running the plan. If you kick the reference consumption down to 250, the start depart charge to 100%, the charger min arrival to 5%, and the battery degradation to 2%, you'll get the numbers that I posted previously. Still, my changes only made 12 minutes difference to the total trip time.
Wow .... as expected most real-life arguments are started when all sides talk according to their own universes and do not see how everyone's universe may not be identical.
Reply With Quote
  #3661  
Old 10-13-2019, 02:01 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Wow .... as expected most real-life arguments are started when all sides talk according to their own universes and do not see how everyone's universe may not be identical.
Even with no changes to the defaults, the difference is only 12 minutes from the numbers I posted, and I stand by all the conclusions I stated. Any comments about those?
Reply With Quote
  #3662  
Old 10-13-2019, 03:15 AM
bear-avhistory's Avatar
bear-avhistory bear-avhistory is offline
2018 440M-Sport MPPSK/THP
Location: Raleigh NC - USA
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 4,491
Mein Auto: 2018 440M-Sport/MPPSK/THP
What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.

FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.
__________________
Kevin

CURRENT:
2019 Chevy Suburban 4X4 RST
2018 BMW 440M-Sport MPPSK/THP 8ZF
2013 BMW 135is JB4 convt 6MT
2009 Yamaha V-Star
1998 Ford Ranger 4X4 Splash 5MT
1965 COBRA 550BHP FORD Racing COYOTE TKO-600
FFR Cobra Mk-IV COYOTE 5MT Build Thread
480 WHP of BURBBLES
I LOVE THE SMELL OF BURNT 100 IN THE MORNING

Last edited by bear-avhistory; 10-13-2019 at 03:21 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3663  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:47 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Even with no changes to the defaults, the difference is only 12 minutes from the numbers I posted, and I stand by all the conclusions I stated. Any comments about those?
My suggestion is to compare your preferred planner, then Tesla's on board planner, then real life results, e.g. CO****CA round trip, and then report back.
Reply With Quote
  #3664  
Old 10-13-2019, 08:48 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by bear-avhistory View Post
What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.

FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.
There is a trip planner on tesla.com/trips. Plus GregD suggests using another online trip planner. Just plug in your start and end points and compare those estimates with your actual ICE results.
Reply With Quote
  #3665  
Old 10-13-2019, 10:20 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
My suggestion is to compare your preferred planner, then Tesla's on board planner, then real life results, e.g. CO****CA round trip, and then report back.
Already done. On my CO to CA round trip in June, I used both the Tesla and abetterrouteplanner the first couple of days. After that, I stopped using the Tesla one since it simply didn't match reality anywhere near as well as abetterrouteplanner.
Reply With Quote
  #3666  
Old 10-13-2019, 10:34 AM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by bear-avhistory View Post
What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.

FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.
Since you need to pick specific starting and ending points, I randomly selected the Raleigh airport and the Philadelphia Art Museum.

Assuming that you do no stops at all in your ICE car, Google Maps says that you should complete the run in 7 hours, 11 minutes with a total distance of 413 miles. Better have a car with excellent range and a good bladder.

Running the same trip through abetterrouteplanner (ABRP) for a Model 3 with default settings comes up with a total trip time of 7 hours, 19 minutes with one charging stop of 23 minutes, and a total distance of 407 miles.

It looks like ABRP came up with both a faster and shorter route somehow, such that the additional time for the Model 3 is only 8 minutes more than the ICE car. I don't think that makes much sense, and whatever route the Model 3 takes, the ICE car should be able to take as well.

I'd say that the real difference is the stop for charging, so it's reasonable to say that a Model 3 on your requested route would take 23 minutes longer than an ICE car on your 7+ hour trip.

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 10:36 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3667  
Old 10-13-2019, 11:00 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Already done. On my CO to CA round trip in June, I used both the Tesla and abetterrouteplanner the first couple of days. After that, I stopped using the Tesla one since it simply didn't match reality anywhere near as well as abetterrouteplanner.
The next step then is use abetterrouteplanner to provide realistic number for ICE like a F30. E.g. that 12.5 hours + 3 stops of 30 mnutes for 800+ miles SFO****SEA is around 65mph, F30 n26 actually for some reason has better mpg around 80mph(at least on flat terrains) than 65mph in Comfort mode.

That 14.75 hours from abetterrouteplanner is still 2-2.5 hours (as previously stated) worse than 12+ hours with ICE based on past experience.

Last edited by namelessman; 10-13-2019 at 11:07 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3668  
Old 10-13-2019, 11:23 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by bear-avhistory View Post
FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.
Off hours make big difference esp. going through urban sprawls like LA and such.
Reply With Quote
  #3669  
Old 10-13-2019, 12:12 PM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
...

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 01:12 PM. Reason: Website hiccupped.
Reply With Quote
  #3670  
Old 10-13-2019, 12:12 PM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
The next step then is use abetterrouteplanner to provide realistic number for ICE like a F30. E.g. that 12.5 hours + 3 stops of 30 mnutes for 800+ miles SFO****SEA is around 65mph, F30 n26 actually for some reason has better mpg around 80mph(at least on flat terrains) than 65mph in Comfort mode.

That 14.75 hours from abetterrouteplanner is still 2-2.5 hours (as previously stated) worse than 12+ hours with ICE based on past experience.
Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again. If you want to do that, Bjorn on Youtube set a 24 hour EV record, and determined that the optimal speed for Model 3 to cover distance as quickly as possible including charging stops was about 90 MPH. Of course, that's rather illegal in the US.

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 01:13 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3671  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:11 PM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
. . .

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 01:12 PM. Reason: Website continued hiccupping. :)
Reply With Quote
  #3672  
Old 10-13-2019, 01:44 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again. If you want to do that, Bjorn on Youtube set a 24 hour EV record, and determined that the optimal speed for Model 3 to cover distance as quickly as possible including charging stops was about 90 MPH. Of course, that's rather illegal in the US.
Do note that sections of HWY5 in CA, OR, and WA do have 70mph speed limit.

Another fun tidbit for is that, my F30 speedo(and BMW's in general) is usually 3-5mph faster than actual speed, so 80mph is around 75mph actual speed, which CHP is just fine [email protected] speed limit.

And false conclusion or not is up to interpretation. E.g. 90mph with N26 probably can get 800+ miles faster than 12 hours and with same 3 stops, while Model [email protected] probably need to squeeze in another charge, or two?
Reply With Quote
  #3673  
Old 10-13-2019, 02:14 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again.
Ok so Mr. Bjorn got free charging that day and made 1728 miles with 10 full charge-equivalent of 850kWh, for roughly 500Wh/mile, on his Model 3 LR.

So this publicity event basically went 2x cost than your lofty 40KWh/160miles goal, which is 250Wh/mile. Are you willing to pay 2x? Now is that compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion?

https://electrek.co/2019/07/05/tesla...stance-record/

BTW, remember the Mirai lessee in my group with the free rental + free fuel paid by Toyota? He certainly does not care about fuel efficiency too!

Last edited by namelessman; 10-13-2019 at 02:23 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3674  
Old 10-13-2019, 03:20 PM
GregD's Avatar
GregD GregD is offline
Driver
Location: America
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,653
Mein Auto: Cars
Quote:
Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Ok so Mr. Bjorn got free charging that day and made 1728 miles with 10 full charge-equivalent of 850kWh, for roughly 500Wh/mile, on his Model 3 LR.

So this publicity event basically went 2x cost than your lofty 40KWh/160miles goal, which is 250Wh/mile. Are you willing to pay 2x? Now is that compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion?

https://electrek.co/2019/07/05/tesla...stance-record/

BTW, remember the Mirai lessee in my group with the free rental + free fuel paid by Toyota? He certainly does not care about fuel efficiency too!
If you're going to play, you're going to pay. Gas mileage in ICE cars drops substantially as the speed goes up as well. Do you want to go fast or do you want to go cheap? Again, if you really want to go fast, a car is not the answer.

Last edited by GregD; 10-13-2019 at 03:27 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3675  
Old 10-13-2019, 04:06 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
Officially Welcomed to the 'Fest
Location: northern california
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,768
Mein Auto: bimmer
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregD View Post
If you're going to play, you're going to pay. Gas mileage in ICE cars drops substantially as the speed goes up as well. Do you want to go fast or do you want to go cheap? Again, if you really want to go fast, a car is not the answer.
Understood, amen to "pay to play". It is just that F30 ZF 8AT can be quite fuel efficient, 80mph(ok 75mph actual speed) can still get around 600 miles for 15.85 gallons of AKI 91!

In contrast, Mr Bjorn's publicity stunt exposed a weakness of current gen Tesla, namely, 1-gear drive!
Reply With Quote
Reply

See More Related BMW Stories


Forum Navigation
Go Back   Bimmerfest - BMW Forums > Everything Else > General Automotive Forum
Today's Posts Search
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
© 2001- VerticalScope Inc. All rights reserved.