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  #1  
Old 09-30-2019, 09:00 AM
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capt_slow capt_slow is offline
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Diesel F31 LCI: Keep or return lease?

I posed this question the other BMW forum already, but thought I solicit feedback from Bimmerfest too:

I'm about 3 months away from lease-end on my 2017 Estoril Blue F31 328d. I'm seriously considering keeping this car for a couple reasons and would like everyone to provide their thoughts. But first here are the numbers:

Residual: $35880
KBB Trade-in Value: $29500-$32500
KBB Private Party Value: $35000-$38500

I have about $3500 in MSDs to put towards the car and BMWFS currently has another $800 to give towards the residual. It's not the $4000 that some people have been getting on older models, but better than nothing. Obligatory pic time:




Pros
  • Until BMWNA (ever) decides to import the G21, this will be the last diesel wagon state-side for at least a while. Combined with the color combo, it makes the car a rare breed. I've received several compliments about this being a "unicorn".
  • I'm a big fan of the wagon form factor and love diesels (had two TDIs before the F31).
  • The LCI F31 and N47 engine are both mature designs. About about 5 and 10 years, respectively.
  • I only put about 23k on the car
  • The car was ordered and spec'd the way I want it and after driving some newer loaners, I dont feel like I'm missing out on much.
  • The brakes still have a long way to go and the tires are at 6/32nds, so I dont feel like maintenance is a problem.
  • Despite it being a lease, it already has a partial front clear bra and ceramic tint, so I have put a little bit of $$$ into the car.
  • The residual is also near the car's KBB value.

Cons
  • BMWFS' strict residual policy, even though it's close to KBB value.
  • Keeping a BMW long-term is costly either in pure repair bills or cost of an extended warranty.
  • For nearly $36k, there are a lot of other new cars to be had.
  • The diesel F31 has its fair share of issues (emissions system, transfer case, EGR cooler, HPFP, etc.).

What do you guys think? Keep it or let it go?

Here are some other cars I'm considering:
Lease: BMW G20 M340i, Volvo V60 R-Design, Audi A4 Allroad
Buy:VW Golf Sportwagen, VW GTI, Mazda 3 Hatch, Buick Regal TourX
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  #2  
Old 09-30-2019, 09:15 AM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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I don't own a diesel, but I've always read that the grief with the emission systems is the DPF, and the problem are worse on a car that does short, slow trips, as opposed to high-speed, long trips on the highway. You also have better emission warranties in California.

Unless you go skiing in the winter, xDrive is a waste in SoCal.

But, BMW's generally don't give you much grief until somewhere around 100k miles. Between 50k and 100k miles, you might have a few $1000 repair or maintenance bills. But, those are trivial compared to what the depreciation on a new BMW would be.

No more BMW station wagons, and no more BMW diesels will be sold in the U.S. (period).

An older car in good shape is a status symbol, at least on Planet Putzer. It's a sign of diligence and intelligence. The converse of that is also true.

If the car gets frequent highway runs, I'd keep it.
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Old 09-30-2019, 10:27 AM
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quackbury quackbury is offline
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One other data point to gather: What is your car worth if you sell it to Carvanna, etc.? If their offer is higher than KBB, you may decide to sell it to them. Or if you decide to keep her, it may make you feel better about the residual.

Unsolicited comments:
  • The M340 and V60 R Design are VERY different cars than your relatively slow oil burner. If you are in So Cal, why no Tesla Model 3 or Jaguar iPace on your list? I'd think the HOV lane perks would be a real plus.
  • How important is the latest tech to you? When you drive the new M340, are you blown away by the new BMW Cockpit, and does your current iDrive feel like DOS in comparison? In So Cal, you're going to spend a lot of time inching along in traffic; the tech may be more important to you than the big HP. Or not.
  • If you are like Putzer, you will build a 5,000 column, 10,000 row spreadsheet to help in your decision making. Remember to include the sales tax on your purchase, a AAA membership to replace your BMW services, and possibly an extended warranty in your math.
  • You will likely also want to remove the RFT's and replace them with Pilot Sports and an inflator. Add those costs to the spreadsheet as well.
  • I suspect So Cal is like the Boston area: a well cared-for older car is viewed more as a sign of a lack of imagination than a status symbol. Putzer's experience is different since he lives in the land where cousins marry cousins, and tattoos cost more than engagement rings.
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  #4  
Old 09-30-2019, 12:46 PM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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That monkeyazzduck... he so funny. He's right about cousins doing cousins and the cost ratios of tattoos and engagement rings where I live, though. I saw some nasty tat's at lunch, including some Bubba with face tat's.

Actually, the next county over has a problem with somebody doing goats. Yeah, there's a goat rapist on the loose here. Who'd want to do a goat? They're ugly.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ed-months.html



Anyway...

The OP's low annual mileage (~9k miles/year) is a check mark in the "Keep It" column. Monkeyazzduck drives a lot of miles. So, leasing a new BMW every three years makes more sense for him.

The OP's benefiting from the lack of any more BMW wagons and diesels. His residual (which BMW thought was grossly inflated when he leased the car) is now within the lower half of the KBB private party price window. There's another check mark in the "Keep It" column.

A rule of thumb for depreciation of cars driven ~12k miles/year is:

25% off of MSRP the first year.

20% of book value the years the car: goes out of warranty, becomes seven model years old, and goes over 100k miles.

15% off book value the remaining years

BMW's tend to depreciate faster than the rule-of-thumb. But, the OP's car has below average mileage. Maybe the two will cancel out. Throw in the wagon and diesel thing, and the OP's future depreciation has been less than the rule-of-thumb rates.

Good data and math produce good decisions. So, let's do a spreadsheet! Ö.. just to pull monkeyazzduck's chain.

I'm going to assume the OP's F31 d's MSRP was $55k. So, here's what annual depreciation up to now looks like, and what deprecation going forward might look like. To go from $55k MSRP to $35.8k in three years, that would be deprecation of roughly 20% the first year and 10% the second and third years. That's down in Honda Civic and pick-up truck territory. So, it's reasonable to assume that the OP's future deprecation rates could be the rule-of-thumb rates less 5%.

The column (Average Annual Depreciation Cost To Date) - (Annual Depreciation Cost) is sort of how much you could spend each year on maintenance and repairs and still be ahead over buying a new car. But, it really doesn't apply in this case because you can't buy another diesel F31 with those exceptionally low deprecation rates. The OP's annual maintenance costs will likely always be below the unusually low amounts shown in the last column, though.

Maintenance and repairs tend to be more mileage based than time based. Deprecation is based on both, and low mileage helps you less than high mileage hurts you. With the OP's low mileage and a "keeper BMW" you can't buy new anymore, it's a no-brainer to hang on to the thing. My only qualifier would be to take it on a 40-mile, weekly run on the interstate outside of rush hours, to burn the DPF clean.

Looking at the trend in the Annual Deprecation column is what makes me keep cars to somewhere around 100k miles.
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  #5  
Old 09-30-2019, 03:14 PM
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gkr778 gkr778 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by capt_slow View Post
Obligatory pic time:
Beautiful pic of a beautiful F31.

IMO, your F31 is definitely a special car, and a keeper. Best wishes!
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Old 10-01-2019, 12:09 AM
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capt_slow capt_slow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quackbury View Post
  • The M340 and V60 R Design are VERY different cars than your relatively slow oil burner. If you are in So Cal, why no Tesla Model 3 or Jaguar iPace on your list?
  • How important is the latest tech to you?
  • I suspect So Cal is like the Boston area: a well cared-for older car is viewed more as a sign of a lack of imagination than a status symbol.
Snipping mine. I'm looking for something with a hatch that isn't a SUV. The TM3 has build issues and at $50k+ the way I want it, it's out of my budget. Tech is important to me and I had a M340 loaner for a week. Color me impressed, but its not drastically enough for me to want it. Aside from stuff like the digital cockpit and iDrive 7.0 GUI, I dont see a lot of differences with my NBT EVO w/ iDrive 6 FDL coded in. I'd like to think I take good care of my cars, it's a personal pride thing. Rather pains me to see a dirty F30 on the road that the driver uses simply as an appliance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autoputzer View Post
Maintenance and repairs tend to be more mileage based than time based. Deprecation is based on both, and low mileage helps you less than high mileage hurts you. With the OP's low mileage and a "keeper BMW" you can't buy new anymore, it's a no-brainer to hang on to the thing. My only qualifier would be to take it on a 40-mile, weekly run on the interstate outside of rush hours, to burn the DPF clean.

Looking at the trend in the Annual Deprecation column is what makes me keep cars to somewhere around 100k miles.
Awesome job on the numbers! My MSRP was $58k, lease residual was 62% after 36 months. I average 22.5 mi/day. Daily commute is about 12 city miles, but I do run errands on the weekends that amount to 70 highway miles. No stranger to diesels, so I try to do more highway driving to trigger a DPF regen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gkr778 View Post
Beautiful pic of a beautiful F31.

IMO, your F31 is definitely a special car, and a keeper. Best wishes!
Thanks! If I keep the thing, I'm considering a ceramic coat or a full stealth clear bra.
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Old 10-01-2019, 01:05 AM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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Originally Posted by capt_slow View Post


Thanks! If I keep the thing, I'm considering a ceramic coat or a full stealth clear bra.
I see a lot of older clear bras here in Floriduh that are severely degraded. Just the fact that I see them means there's a problem. Also, after ten years of baking in the sun, the adhesive can work down into the paint. The BMW dealer I use said they're out of the clear bra business after getting sued for damage to somebody's paint from one of their clear bras.
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Old 10-01-2019, 08:31 PM
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capt_slow capt_slow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autoputzer View Post
I see a lot of older clear bras here in Floriduh that are severely degraded. Just the fact that I see them means there's a problem. Also, after ten years of baking in the sun, the adhesive can work down into the paint. The BMW dealer I use said they're out of the clear bra business after getting sued for damage to somebody's paint from one of their clear bras.
The older 3M clear bras have that issue. Newer ones, like the XPEL film on my F31, should have newer composition that stops the yellowing. It comes with a 10-year warranty. Garaging it also helps. My old TDI had a 3M clear bra and there was only a slight yellow tint after about 9 years.
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2017 328d xDrive Sports Wagon: Estoril Blue, Black Sensatec, Driver Assist Pkg, M-Sport Pkg, Premium Pkg, ACC, Side/Top Cameras, Park Assist, Nav, HK
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Old 10-02-2019, 09:26 PM
Robert A Robert A is offline
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You have a unicorn, and owning it only makes sense if you plan to keep it a long time. Otherwise, $35k for a 3-year old 3 Series is way too much to spend in terms of market value. FWIW, I bought out the lease on my BTO 535d at the same point in its life for $34k and have taken a huge bath on resale value.

Check out the search for pre-owned cars on BMWUSA.com to get a sense of value.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:50 PM
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capt_slow capt_slow is offline
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Originally Posted by Robert A View Post
Check out the search for pre-owned cars on BMWUSA.com to get a sense of value.
The lone 2017 diesel F31 in CA is $31K, CPO. It's non M-Sport, lightly optioned, and has 33K on it. I would say it's close.

https://cpo.bmwusa.com/certified/201...8J1C34HA018841

There's a 2018 clone of my car with less than 2k miles on it, going for nearly $48k!
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Old 10-04-2019, 10:17 AM
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Dave 20T Dave 20T is offline
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Keep it.

You like it. Buying a new car is not cheap. Buying another car just like it is not possible.

Don't keep it if you dislike your car and the car makes you frown.
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Old 10-14-2019, 03:10 AM
Onizukachan Onizukachan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by capt_slow View Post
The lone 2017 diesel F31 in CA is $31K, CPO. It's non M-Sport, lightly optioned, and has 33K on it. I would say it's close.

https://cpo.bmwusa.com/certified/201...8J1C34HA018841

There's a 2018 clone of my car with less than 2k miles on it, going for nearly $48k!
Yeah but a fully fully fully optioned 2016 F31 Msport in silver just sold for $25k with 42k miles in San Fran.
I know because I tried to buy it, and wound up getting our Ď15 F31d Msport for 20k with 57k miles. Didnít have the assistant plus so I get my glovebox, and no active cruise control or rear shades. Thatís all it is missing compared to the other one.

Estoril Msport is not nearly as rare as one thinks it is.
Unless it has a coral interior. In which case it is 1/1 or 1/2 imported.
And itís gorgeous. I saw it a year or two ago.

The thing is you know the history. Has it been a good car or problematic. If good solid trouble free car, buy it. When will you ever find another the same again?
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Old 10-14-2019, 06:32 AM
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LarryboysUDM LarryboysUDM is offline
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I'd say test drive and price out the ones being considered and if one gives you a bigger smile compared to the one you have then it's up to you. Good luck!
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Old 10-21-2019, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by LarryboysUDM View Post
I'd say test drive and price out the ones being considered and if one gives you a bigger smile compared to the one you have then it's up to you. Good luck!
The one car that really caught my eye was the G20 M340i! Had it as a loaner for about a week and it was addicting.

I actually decided to keep the F31, thanks to the feedback from the folks here and on other boards.

That out of the way, I just need to plan how I'm going to do that. I might just extend the lease on the F31 by a couple months, just to see if BMWFS provides better incentives as more 2017s flood the used market. Also shopping around for extended warranties and thinking of light mods.
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