Incredible Depreciation for BMW - Page 5 - Bimmerfest - BMW Forums



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  #101  
Old 05-02-2018, 09:26 AM
Gene Horn Gene Horn is offline
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explaining the depreciation

Yes, the car is fun to drive but make no mistake. The depreciation is due to the extensive repair costs. I am talking repair, not maintenance which is also expensive.

I own a 2009 BMW X5 4.8i with 114,000 miles. After the 50,000 warranty, the repair costs at this point have totaled over $35,000, almost all at a BMW dealership! Thank goodness for extended warranties!

By the way, my wife and I are in our 70s the only drivers and drive conservatively. The car is driven at 70 on the interstate, never red lined, no wheel spinning or floor boarding at stop lights, no sliding stops, etc. The car is extremely well maintained well beyond the recommendations. Oil changes ad 10,000 not the recommended 15,000. Differential fluid, transfer case fluid and transmission fluid changed at 90,000 although not required. Etc.

By the way, my previous car was a Jeep Grand Cherokee limited and required $3,000 in repairs in 212,000 miles. My BMW repairs are not a driving or maintaining issue. When I asked my service rep about my excessive repairs, he said most people don't maintain like you do.

if you want a luxury SUV and plan to keep it several years, check out the repair records and depreciation on a Lexus. If you buy a BMW, count on high depreciation and expensive repairs.
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  #102  
Old 05-02-2018, 10:02 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by Gene Horn View Post
I own a 2009 BMW X5 4.8i with 114,000 miles. After the 50,000 warranty, the repair costs at this point have totaled over $35,000, almost all at a BMW dealership! Thank goodness for extended warranties!
Was that BMW or aftermarket extended warranty? $35k payout is awesome esp. when all extended warranty limits the lifetime payout to the FMV of the car at time of repair. Did those $35k repairs occur just after new war warranty expiration?
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  #103  
Old 05-02-2018, 11:02 AM
ctorrey ctorrey is offline
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Originally Posted by Gene Horn View Post
Yes, the car is fun to drive but make no mistake. The depreciation is due to the extensive repair costs. I am talking repair, not maintenance which is also expensive.

I own a 2009 BMW X5 4.8i with 114,000 miles. After the 50,000 warranty, the repair costs at this point have totaled over $35,000, almost all at a BMW dealership! Thank goodness for extended warranties!

By the way, my wife and I are in our 70s the only drivers and drive conservatively. The car is driven at 70 on the interstate, never red lined, no wheel spinning or floor boarding at stop lights, no sliding stops, etc. The car is extremely well maintained well beyond the recommendations. Oil changes ad 10,000 not the recommended 15,000. Differential fluid, transfer case fluid and transmission fluid changed at 90,000 although not required. Etc.

By the way, my previous car was a Jeep Grand Cherokee limited and required $3,000 in repairs in 212,000 miles. My BMW repairs are not a driving or maintaining issue. When I asked my service rep about my excessive repairs, he said most people don't maintain like you do.

if you want a luxury SUV and plan to keep it several years, check out the repair records and depreciation on a Lexus. If you buy a BMW, count on high depreciation and expensive repairs.
$35k in repairs?!?! That X5 would have been gone before that number $5k! Yikes. I hope you like it. Since 2011, I'm in my 3rd 335i/340i lease and when the current one is up in 2 years (9 years of leasing total), I will have spent under $65k, all in. Sure, I don't have anything to show for it at the end, but I had 3 brand new cars, no maintenance expenses, and not stuck with a vehicle that has a $35k repair history. But that's just me.
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  #104  
Old 05-02-2018, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by JamesWWIII View Post
Yeah, I thought my Accord V6 was a pretty sporty car...

...until I got my hands on a 440i.

In all seriousness, the Honda was great. 8 years and 56K miles and the only time it saw the service department was for regular maintenance and the Takata airbag recall replacement. Same as the 2003 Accord Coupe V6 I owned before it. So 16 years of flawless car ownership over two Hondas. BMW has a lot to live up to, I'm hoping I have the same good luck.

Lexus & Honda....the low maint leaders.

Accord Sport is the recent model I most often see, usually rippin' the right lane t'get ahead one or two car lengths. Once was a time BMW pilots had that reputation.

440i is better but its handling can be grossly improved. Yessir!
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  #105  
Old 05-02-2018, 11:10 AM
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$35k in repairs?!?! That X5 would have been gone before that number $5k! Yikes. I hope you like it. Since 2011, I'm in my 3rd 335i/340i lease and when the current one is up in 2 years (9 years of leasing total), I will have spent under $65k, all in. Sure, I don't have anything to show for it at the end, but I had 3 brand new cars, no maintenance expenses, and not stuck with a vehicle that has a $35k repair history. But that's just me.
My strategy is that if repair bills pile up, say, $5k, the car will be fixed and sold.

Luckily my current F30 is already 5.5 years and is already break even with an equivalent lease at 5-year mark, so if a $5k does show up the car will be sold shortly after a trip to trusted indy.
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  #106  
Old 05-02-2018, 12:43 PM
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As I was at the dealership today getting my brakes inspected and while I was waiting on my car, I looked at a few CPO and I was surprised to see BMW no longer offers the 6 year CPO warranty. It is now 5 years with the option to purchase the 6 and 7 years... WOW!!!!! The depreciation on these cars is also very high even after purchasing a 3 year old CPO car. At the 5 year mark, these cars could be worth 70 percent of the initial cost. Another big WOW.. Not sure if this is the case for every other manufacturer but I was hoping that buying a CPO car, I would be somewhat buffered, but that might not be the case. Currently worth half of what I paid as a CPO two years ago... (as a trade in)

70% after 5 years? No car is worth 70% of its value after 5 years. You are lucky if its 50%
Well, some suvs are. My 13 BD Avalanche is worth 70%. (H2s and FJ Cruisers are very good)...

Some people like expensive meals, wines or trips while others like new cars every few years. All give you an experience which may not be good for your net worth. Living life is good...

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  #107  
Old 05-02-2018, 01:21 PM
enjoythemusic enjoythemusic is offline
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Originally Posted by balfron100 View Post
Who mentioned Bentley? stick to the subject if you can, fud !
i did, and here's part of the OP

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrminsky View Post
As I was at the dealership today getting my brakes inspected and while I was waiting on my car, I looked at a few CPO and I was surprised to see BMW no longer offers the 6 year CPO warranty. It is now 5 years with the option to purchase the 6 and 7 years... WOW!!!!! The depreciation on these cars is also very high even after purchasing a 3 year old CPO car. At the 5 year mark, these cars could be worth 70 percent of the initial cost. Another big WOW.
So he's whining about a car being worth 70% of original price after 5 years. My example is that BMW is not that bad, as buying a Bentley guarantees about a 50% loss in only 4 or so years. Worst thing i ever did was have a Bentley cost-wise. BIG MISTAKE!

So go on, whine about 70% after three years of a BMW, that is not really that bad as compared to other alternative manufacture cars also made in part in Germany. Perhaps that's my point, a BMW holds it value well as compared to other German marques (VW Group's Bentley product).
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  #108  
Old 05-02-2018, 01:25 PM
PK2348 PK2348 is offline
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Originally Posted by Autoputzer View Post
A three year, 12k mile/year lease on a $50k BMW would be more like $750/month, not $500/month. That's an extra $3k/year or $27k over the nine years.

Here are my annual depreciation and maintenance costs for my 2002 M3. Annual maintenance and repair costs didn't get unreasonable until the 12th year (103k to 112k miles). Even in the 12th year, that car was cheap ($10k for maintenance and depreciation) compared to my 535i in it's first year ($19k for maintenance and depreciation).
18 340, 60K sticker. 529 per month. 12K per year. Out of pocket about 1K - acq fee and DMV fees. I do have MSDs in the deal.
Who pays 750 to lease a 50K car? Rule of thumb is monthly payment of 1% of MSRP max
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  #109  
Old 05-02-2018, 01:38 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by PK2348 View Post
Rule of thumb is monthly payment of 1% of MSRP max
1% MSRP is not that cheap, 1% of negotiated cap cost should be the target.

E.g. on $50k MSRP, $1k fee is 2%, and 36 months of 1% is 36% + 2% = 38% of MSRP.

The same car can be purchased at 80% of MSRP, and let's say after tax + fee is 88%.

So lessees pay 76% in 2 leases, while the buyers still has a car that's worth 10-15%?

On the other hand, a 1% of negotiated cap cost of, say, 20% off MSRP, can save around 7% per lease, so at least do shoot for that target.
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  #110  
Old 05-02-2018, 02:07 PM
LMK5 LMK5 is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
1% MSRP is not that cheap, 1% of negotiated cap cost should be the target.

E.g. on $50k MSRP, $1k fee is 2%, and 36 months of 1% is 36% + 2% = 38% of MSRP.

The same car can be purchased at 80% of MSRP, and let's say after tax + fee is 88%.

So lessees pay 76% in 2 leases, while the buyers still has a car that's worth 10-15%?

On the other hand, a 1% of negotiated cap cost of, say, 20% off MSRP, can save around 7% per lease, so at least do shoot for that target.
Not sure how you come up with 1% of negotiated cap cost (selling price). You'd have to work on miles, term, and MF to bring the payment down, and those are largely non-negotiable. If 10 lease shoppers with great credit go into the dealership and want 3/30k leases, their terms should not vary at all. The one with the lowest payment will be the one who negotiated the lowest selling price (cap cost). It's the 1% of MSRP target that allows you to control your payment through negotiation, not 1% of cap cost.
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  #111  
Old 05-02-2018, 02:13 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by LMK5 View Post
Not sure how you come up with 1% of negotiated cap cost (selling price). You'd have to work on miles, term, and MF to bring the payment down, and those are largely non-negotiable. If 10 lease shoppers with great credit go into the dealership and want 3/30k leases, their terms should not vary at all. The one with the lowest payment will be the one who negotiated the lowest selling price (cap cost). It's the 1% of MSRP target that allows you to control your payment through negotiation, not 1% of cap cost.
1% of cap cost is based on PK's example of $60K sticker. 529 per month. In that example, it is 0.882%. That extra 0.15-0.2% drop adds up, e.g. on a $60k sticker, a 0.2% drop per monthly is $4k+, or extra savings of 7% of MSRP.
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  #112  
Old 05-02-2018, 02:26 PM
duberalles duberalles is offline
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Originally Posted by PK2348 View Post
18 340, 60K sticker. 529 per month. 12K per year. Out of pocket about 1K - acq fee and DMV fees. I do have MSDs in the deal.
Who pays 750 to lease a 50K car? Rule of thumb is monthly payment of 1% of MSRP max

Interesting...I never leased a car (been tempted at times) but, as far as I know, the golden rule should be:

- No money down (only the minimum fees required), after all is a lease not a buy

- Pick the monthly car payment you are more comfortable with (again, you are renting a car)

- Negotiate the purchasing price like crazy exactly how you do when you buy

- Residual values are usually not negotiable.


Is that correct??
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  #113  
Old 05-02-2018, 03:49 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by PK2348 View Post
I am not following how you are getting to 10-15%?
My thinking is a 6-year car is still at least worth 10-15% of MSRP, e.g. $50k car is still around $5k to $7.5k.

In fact, my 5.5-year old [email protected] $43k recently got $13.5k trade offer from dealer, that will be way more than 10-15% at 6-year mark.
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  #114  
Old 05-02-2018, 03:52 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by duberalles View Post
Interesting...I never leased a car (been tempted at times) but, as far as I know, the golden rule should be:

- No money down (only the minimum fees required), after all is a lease not a buy

- Pick the monthly car payment you are more comfortable with (again, you are renting a car)

- Negotiate the purchasing price like crazy exactly how you do when you buy

- Residual values are usually not negotiable.


Is that correct??
Yes the above rules sound right.

The status quo is that interest rate is climbing and RV is dropping(e.g. 56-59%), so regardless latest leases are getting more expensive than previous ones.
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  #115  
Old 05-02-2018, 06:34 PM
PK2348 PK2348 is offline
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Originally Posted by duberalles View Post
Interesting...I never leased a car (been tempted at times) but, as far as I know, the golden rule should be:

- No money down (only the minimum fees required), after all is a lease not a buy

- Pick the monthly car payment you are more comfortable with (again, you are renting a car)

- Negotiate the purchasing price like crazy exactly how you do when you buy

- Residual values are usually not negotiable.


Is that correct??
Yes, thatís mostly correct, what is your question though?
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  #116  
Old 05-02-2018, 06:43 PM
PK2348 PK2348 is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
My thinking is a 6-year car is still at least worth 10-15% of MSRP, e.g. $50k car is still around $5k to $7.5k.

In fact, my 5.5-year old [email protected] $43k recently got $13.5k trade offer from dealer, that will be way more than 10-15% at 6-year mark.
So someone buys a 50k car for 40k plus tax
Letís say 43k. After 6 years , with 72k on the clock (12k per year) itís worth 10k? Is that reasonable, itís more than 10% you used. Total cost 33k assuming no out of warranty repairs
Someone else leases a 50k car for 500 monthly, which is a bit high but might be reasonable if you spread all of the out of pocket costs into monthly payments
Total cost 36k.
The buyer saved 3k while carrying all of the risks of ownership
In my opinion totally not worth it
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  #117  
Old 05-02-2018, 07:04 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by PK2348 View Post
So someone buys a 50k car for 40k plus tax
Letís say 43k. After 6 years , with 72k on the clock (12k per year) itís worth 10k? Is that reasonable, itís more than 10% you used. Total cost 33k assuming no out of warranty repairs
Someone else leases a 50k car for 500 monthly, which is a bit high but might be reasonable if you spread all of the out of pocket costs into monthly payments
Total cost 36k.
The buyer saved 3k while carrying all of the risks of ownership
In my opinion totally not worth it
Yes your point is valid, namely, mileage does add/subtract value at 6-year mark.

My mileage is around 10k/year, so from 5 years/50k miles break even, to 10 years/100k miles, the cost of ownership is relatively small. Those years are what pay for the next car in my scenario.

For others with 75k miles at 5-6 year mark, and reaching 100k miles in year 6-7, the math will turn out differently.
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  #118  
Old 05-02-2018, 07:09 PM
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Idiots purchase at msrp, and idiots assume buying a used car based on savings off msrp.
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  #119  
Old 05-02-2018, 07:33 PM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Originally Posted by openwheelracing View Post
Idiots purchase at msrp, and idiots assume buying a used car based on savings off msrp.
BMW's MSRP is a fascinating subject.

E.g. prevailing local market prices of F30 is 15-20% off MSRP. So why can't BMWNA drop their MSRP/invoice, and remove all incentives, to publish the true market price?

The issue probably is that prevailing/dynamic market prices are per local market. That by itself is creating yet another interesting dynamics, namely, customers from those rigid/non-robust markets reaching out nation-wide to grab those 15-20% off deals which are non-existent in their locales.

In my mind MSRP means nothing other than a frame of reference for comparison. Maybe a better reference than MSRP would be the BMWNA import price.
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  #120  
Old 05-02-2018, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted by enjoythemusic View Post
So he's whining about a car being worth 70% of original price after 5 years. My example is that BMW is not that bad, as buying a Bentley guarantees about a 50% loss in only 4 or so years. Worst thing i ever did was have a Bentley cost-wise. BIG MISTAKE!

Did you find it maint-intensive?
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  #121  
Old 05-02-2018, 09:31 PM
Gene Horn Gene Horn is offline
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Originally Posted by namelessman View Post
Was that BMW or aftermarket extended warranty? $35k payout is awesome esp. when all extended warranty limits the lifetime payout to the FMV of the car at time of repair. Did those $35k repairs occur just after new war warranty expiration?
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There are two extended warranties, not one. The second one began at 98,000. You are right about caps. However they vary substantially by warranty company. The worst use wholesale value, about 60% of replacement cost and repairs are cumulative against the cap.

Here are my major repairs: Between 50,000 and 100,000 - Replaced AC compressor, fuel pump twice, dash fan, transmission actuator, and engine valve stem seals. Between 100,000 and 114, 000 replaced water pump and transmission.

These were third party warranties, not BMW. No deductible and broader coverage on the first one. The first warranty was excellent. The second one is marginal. Coverage is only on major components. They want to deny coverage based on normal wear and tear and use used parts out of junkers. Fortunately, I bought both warranties through a finance company that had leverage and stepped in.

My advice on an auto warranty is this: Don't buy one without reading the contract fine print and assume that every out will be taken. Check on complaint records and the portion resolved from an independent record source. If you don't know cars, don't touch an extended warranty.

By the way, my maintenance costs apart from repairs have run between $1,000 and $1,500 a year. This includes things like a battery, tires, fluid and filter changes, break pads/rotors and alignments.
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  #122  
Old 05-02-2018, 11:14 PM
bimmerbingo bimmerbingo is offline
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Same here... after having spent 100K+ on two BMWs (both are paid off) in the last 3 years and seeing how much they are worth now I can say that they are also my last.
I was contemplating to get into a Porsche next, but for all these years I've been on the edge that some uninsured hillbilly would will rear end me in his/her $40 clunker, so my next ride will likely be a big ass armored zombie truck. That should make those idiots be more careful when following me too close, or cutting me off (especially Prius drivers).
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  #123  
Old 05-03-2018, 01:48 AM
namelessman namelessman is online now
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Here are my major repairs: Between 50,000 and 100,000 - Replaced AC compressor, fuel pump twice, dash fan, transmission actuator, and engine valve stem seals. Between 100,000 and 114, 000 replaced water pump and transmission.
Those are expensive items, luckily for my PZEV car, the fuel pumps and engine valve stem seals will be covered by BMWNA up to 15 years and 150000 miles.

So did your AC compressor require a dash tear down? The F30 AC compressor appears to be accessible from under glove box, just like some Accords, but there is no confirmation from foremen/indies.

AC/dash fan on F30 is (relatively) easy to replace from under the glove box, it is really cool when BMW engineers put accessibility, serviceability(and of course reliability) as their priorities.

The transmission actuator and ZF 8AT transmission itself on F30 are not cheap, ZF does recommend filter + fluid change in 60k miles, while dealers say 100k miles, maybe shelling out $900+ for that job would be a good strategy.
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  #124  
Old 05-03-2018, 01:55 AM
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Originally Posted by bimmerbingo View Post
Same here... after having spent 100K+ on two BMWs (both are paid off) in the last 3 years and seeing how much they are worth now I can say that they are also my last.
I was contemplating to get into a Porsche next, but for all these years I've been on the edge that some uninsured hillbilly would will rear end me in his/her $40 clunker, so my next ride will likely be a big ass armored zombie truck. That should make those idiots be more careful when following me too close, or cutting me off (especially Prius drivers).
Many Porsche's are semi collector items, with few miles, so their new/used prices and resale values are in their own league.

Local Porsche dealers seldom sell less than MSRP. There are deals below MSRP on high volume models, but even those can demand premiums/markups if customers venture into the expansive order guides.

E.g. a friend negotiated hard for a $3k off MSRP on a Cayenne, but once his wife added custom paint, the price became $5k markup(on top of full MSRP of custom paint)[email protected]$!
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  #125  
Old 05-03-2018, 06:24 AM
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Depreciation Solved!

Honda S2000 ... purchased a 2007 one year pre-owned in 2008 for $28,000

No maintence costs other than oil changes

Sold 2014 for $28,000

Boom!
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