Good time to sell or trade or keep?

I have a 2013 335i m sport with multiple packages.

I bought it as a CPO in 2016 and it had a 3 year extended warranty. I bought a maintenance warranty too.

Fast forward to now... Both my factory warranty and maintenance warranty have expired. The car is in good shape at 70k miles. No major issues but it is starting to show it's wear and tear.

I have 13k left before it is paid off.

My question to you fine folks is.. Would this be a good time to trade it in and get a new car (bmw or otherwise) now that the cars maintenance and (possible) breakdown are going to cost me $$$? If so, do dealerships give fair prices for the trade in value?


I don't have the money to pay off the car and sell it on the private market...


Or do I just keep the car knowing I'll own it in 19 months or so??

Kinda just wanna know what's the smart thing to do here. Leaning towards trading it in and leasing a car covered under warranty. For what it's worth, in 9 months or so money will not be an issue for me (salary will quadruple).

Despite what BMW salesmen say, a BMW out of warranty is not the end of the world. BMW's are better now than they were 20 years ago. Your car has the generally reliable N55. Have the belts and tensioner replaced, and check for oil filter housing and valve cover leaks. Other than that, the engine will be fine for a long time to come. The transmission is the same one they put in Ram 1500 pick-up trucks. So, it will be fine too. The lifespan of brakes and tires depends greatly on behavior. Road salt isn't generally a problem in Alabama.

You will have some scheduled maintenance and some unscheduled maintenance (a.k.a. "repairs"). But, it's likely not going to be anything significant, especially compared to what a new BMW's deprecation would be. Oh, and don't fall for the line that leasing gets you out of paying depreciation. Leasing keeps you on the new-car-deprecation-merry-go-round... forevah.

Deprecation is typically 25% of MSRP the first year;, 20% of book value the years the car goes out of warranty, becomes seven years old, and goes over 100k miles; and 15% of book value the remaining years. So, you just took the second 20% whack for a car being seven model years old. Banks and credit unions don't like financing seven year old cars or cars with 100k miles on them.

Annual deprecation from here on will be trivial. Here's the deprecation rule-of-thumb rates applied to a $60k MSRP car. In the eighth year, depreciation is roughly $2250, as opposed to $15k for a new car in its first year. That last column is sort of what you could spend in maintenance and repairs in that year as still be ahead over buying a new car.

My advice would be to keep it to somewhere around 100k miles, keep making those $685/month (?) car payments until it's paid off, and then start saving for a new car, and for a house/condo/apartment/whatever with a garage.

Saving up for a new car instead of financing it will make you think harder about the need for a new car. But on the other side, once you start collecting your doctor/lawyer/Indian chief salary your time will be too valuable to be messing with a BMW with over 100k miles. I kept my first BMW to 115k miles. It was a bargain up until about 102k miles. Then, I had a year long "perfect storm" of maintenance costs, about $7k over about 10k miles. So, from here on out, my goal is to keep our BMW's 100k miles, and sell them the day after the "1" shows up in the sixth digit on the odometer.

If you want to find out what the car is worth, get a quote from Carvanna and one from CarMax. Both will be significantly higher than any trade in offer, from a BMW dealer or otherwise. And if you decide to sell, they will pay off your loan and cut you a check for the balance.

If you sell the car and lease, resist the temptation to use a big chunk of your sales proceeds as a cap cost reduction (to bring your monthly lease payment down). If your shiny new M3 is totaled the day after you drive her off the lot, you will lose every penny of the $$$ you put down.

And a word of advice: NEVER assume that your salary will quadruple in XX years. People get sick (even Millennials). Glitzy start ups like We Work vanish in a puff of smoke, leaving their employees unemployed. Your entire working career may have been spent in a booming economy with full employment for anyone who can fog a mirror, but economic cycles are as certain as death and taxes. There WILL be a recession; it could be here in 6 months or 6 years, but it will arrive, and you will be happy to have any job, let alone a four-fold increase in pay. And if you do, in fact, get that big raise and corner office, there will be a lot of other things competing for your spendable income: condo, wife, baby, etc.

It's great to have goals and a career trajectory that excites you, but always know that life doesn't always work out like you planned.

My advice: take your car to a competent indy. If you don't know one, ask your local BMW Car Club chapter who is good. Have them do a thorough inspection of the car, identifying what they think are potential problems, and giving you an estimate of the repair costs. Then PM Uncle Autoputzer. He will be happy to build a spreadsheet for you to help you analyze the data. He has no life, and lives for that stuff. It keeps him out of the Bingo parlor, so it's really an act of charity on your part.

70,000 miles is not so high ...... that car ought to easily get you to 100,000 ...... particularly since you know it's history ......

I see thanks for the replies.

The thing is that if something were to happen in the next 9 months to the car...I'd be financially broken for sure. So by getting into a new one I am hoping to offset any down payments etc with protection and predictability.

As for the job. I'm a physician and there's a fair amount of predictability and reliability when it comes to contracts and salaries.

Keep the car until you're graduated and receiving income. If it goes belly up, rideshare for a while or get a true beater. Not sure I'm understanding how you could afford the car 3 years ago cpo but not be able to replace it now if desired.

Originally Posted by wantafastone

I see thanks for the replies.

The thing is that if something were to happen in the next 9 months to the car...I'd be financially broken for sure. So by getting into a new one I am hoping to offset any down payments etc with protection and predictability.

As for the job. I'm a physician and there's a fair amount of predictability and reliability when it comes to contracts and salaries.

My wife drives a 2013 335i. It was practically the first F30 335i delivered and when the lease was up, we purchased it from BMWFS. The car now has 70k mi on the clock and has been a fantastic car. We will keep it to 150k mi I bet. No payments!!

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer

My wife drives a 2013 335i. It was practically the first F30 335i delivered and when the lease was up, we purchased it from BMWFS. The car now has 70k mi on the clock and has been a fantastic car. We will keep it to 150k mi I bet. No payments!!

2013 335i is a great choice!

It was very tempting to get a F30 335i to replace my old E39 I6 N/A, but the deal was $4000 extra versus similarly equipped F30 328i (including $1k versus $500 over invoice), so 2013 328i it was for me.

As of today, after 7 years, the resale difference of these two cars is also $4000, meaning there is $0 depreciation of that N55 engine after 7 years!

Also N55 has no timing chain issue like the N20/N26, talk about the wrong choice .... oh well.

BTW did yours get any lease end RV discount, and if so, how much?

Originally Posted by namelessman

2013 335i is a great choice!

It was very tempting to get a F30 335i to replace my old E39 I6 N/A, but the deal was $4000 extra versus similarly equipped F30 328i (including $1k versus $500 over invoice), so 2013 328i it was for me.

As of today, after 7 years, the resale difference of these two cars is also $4000, meaning there is $0 depreciation of that N55 engine after 7 years!

Also N55 has no timing chain issue like the N20/N26, talk about the wrong choice .... oh well.

BTW did yours get any lease end RV discount, and if so, how much?

For sure. When I bought my wife's 335i I got a great deal, but when I bought out my 2013 M3, I got an INSANE never-ever-repeatable deal..

Originally Posted by Jon Shafer

For sure. When I bought my wife's 335i I got a great deal, but when I bought out my 2013 M3, I got an INSANE never-ever-repeatable deal..

Ah those legendary insider dream deals.

Originally Posted by quackbury

If you want to find out what the car is worth, get a quote from Carvanna and one from CarMax. Both will be significantly higher than any trade in offer, from a BMW dealer or otherwise. And if you decide to sell, they will pay off your loan and cut you a check for the balance.

If you sell the car and lease, resist the temptation to use a big chunk of your sales proceeds as a cap cost reduction (to bring your monthly lease payment down). If your shiny new M3 is totaled the day after you drive her off the lot, you will lose every penny of the $$$ you put down.

And a word of advice: NEVER assume that your salary will quadruple in XX years. People get sick (even Millennials). Glitzy start ups like We Work vanish in a puff of smoke, leaving their employees unemployed. Your entire working career may have been spent in a booming economy with full employment for anyone who can fog a mirror, but economic cycles are as certain as death and taxes. There WILL be a recession; it could be here in 6 months or 6 years, but it will arrive, and you will be happy to have any job, let alone a four-fold increase in pay. And if you do, in fact, get that big raise and corner office, there will be a lot of other things competing for your spendable income: condo, wife, baby, etc.

It's great to have goals and a career trajectory that excites you, but always know that life doesn't always work out like you planned.

My advice: take your car to a competent indy. If you don't know one, ask your local BMW Car Club chapter who is good. Have them do a thorough inspection of the car, identifying what they think are potential problems, and giving you an estimate of the repair costs. Then PM Uncle Autoputzer. He will be happy to build a spreadsheet for you to help you analyze the data. He has no life, and lives for that stuff. It keeps him out of the Bingo parlor, so it's really an act of charity on your part.

That monkeyazzduck…. he so funny.

He's right about my obsession with spreadsheets, though. Right after we got married, somebody asked Frau Putzer what my hobbies were. …. golf? …. fishing? …. bowling?
"It's the damnedest thing... His only hobbies seem to be accounting and washing cars. But, he got my finances in order, we won't have to work as greeters at Walmart when we get old, and it sure is nice driving a clean car."

Actually, the two hobbies are related. It's not just washing a car, it's cosmetically maintaining the car (wax, Armor-All, Endurance, etc.), so that our car's are not "showing wear" after just six or seven years. Keeping a car clean, and looking and operating like new means we're not motivated to get new cars as often.

I break down the monthly depreciation of our cars, and put that in our spending log. Seeing what deprecation costs, makes the occasional $1000 bill for maintenance or repairs a whole lot easier to accept.

Keeping our car to 100k miles means we spend less on our cars, and/or we can replace them with nicer cars than if we were swapping out cars every three years.

My accounting obsession confirms the importance of maintaining our cars, cosmetically and mechanically. Keeping a BMW eight or nine years instead of leasing three similar BMW's will save me about $25k. I'd enjoy a new car as much as anybody. But, when I look at the extra cost, I'm happier keeping my old ones.

"Autoputzer" is German for "car washer." "Auto" also means "self." and "putz" in Yiddish means to play or act ineffectively. So, "Autoputzer" could also mean "one who plays with himself." Let's go with "car washer."

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

Keeping our car to 100k miles means we spend less on our cars, and/or we can replace them with nicer cars than if we were swapping out cars every three years.

Do your spreadsheets show any difference of keeping to 80k versus 100k miles?

Originally Posted by namelessman

Do your spreadsheets show any difference of keeping to 80k versus 100k miles?

You bet'cha!

I have actual data for my 2002 M3, which I kept 12.3 years and 115k miles. My M3's maintenance and deprecation took a little bit of an uptick between 95k and 103k miles. But it was still far cheaper than buying a new one. But, between 103k miles and 112k miles it was the perfect storm: almost $7k in maintenance and repairs, and over $3k in depreciation. But, that was still cheaper than the first year's deprecation on my next BMW: $16.9k.

For our current BMW's (61k and 15k miles), I'm budgeting $0.20/mile for maintenance and repairs in the out years (5th, 6th, 7th...). The 50k to 100k period is "The Happy Time." Past that, maintenance costs are more likely to be a rollercoaster ride.

The 5th year for my 535i was cheap: $285 in maintenance and $5.7k in deprecation, for a total of $0.90/mile.

So, comparing 80k to 100k miles on BMW #N to 0 to 20k miles on BMW #(N+1), it's likely to be no-brainer to keep BMW #N.

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

You bet'cha!

I have actual data for my 2002 M3, which I kept 12.3 years and 115k miles. My M3's maintenance and deprecation took a little bit of an uptick between 95k and 103k miles. But it was still far cheaper than buying a new one. But, between 103k miles and 112k miles it was the perfect storm: almost $7k in maintenance and repairs, and over $3k in depreciation. But, that was still cheaper than the first year's deprecation on my next BMW: $16.9k.

For our current BMW's (61k and 15k miles), I'm budgeting $0.20/mile for maintenance and repairs in the out years (5th, 6th, 7th...). The 50k to 100k period is "The Happy Time." Past that, maintenance costs are more likely to be a rollercoaster ride.

The 5th year for my 535i was cheap: $285 in maintenance and $5.7k in deprecation, for a total of $0.90/mile.

So, comparing 80k to 100k miles on BMW #N to 0 to 20k miles on BMW #(N+1), it's likely to be no-brainer to keep BMW #N.

Based on experience, my current strategy is to time the exit right before the perfect storm hits. Best case scenario is to have zero pending repair to get top dollars, but even average trade/private offers due to non-perfect conditions can be good, because it can be a race of time before the perfect storm arrives!

The extra 20k miles between 80k to 100k do delay the depreciation paid on a new car.

At times the roller coaster starts at 10 years even mileage is 80k, so the playbook now is 10 years or 100k miles whichever comes first.

Originally Posted by namelessman

Based on experience, my current strategy is to time the exit right before the perfect storm hits. Best case scenario is to have zero pending repair to get top dollars, but even average trade/private offers due to non-perfect conditions can be good, because it can be a race of time before the perfect storm arrives!

The extra 20k miles between 80k to 100k do delay the depreciation paid on a new car.

At times the roller coaster starts at 10 years even mileage is 80k, so the playbook now is 10 years or 100k miles whichever comes first.

Yeah, that's about where I am.

My 2007 Cobalt now has 123k miles on it, and it has 14 outstanding maintenance issues. My plan was to unload it at 100k miles. But, I had a puncture repair fail on a tire at 95k miles. That set of tires was almost worn out, so I got a new set. That set will have 30k+ miles and be six years old next March. So, that's my next natural stopping point.

I mainly keep a beater because of crap parking and vandalism associated with living in a tourist area. We're moving next year. When my current BMW (2014 535i) is at that 10 year/100k mile point, I might consider selling my then four year old GM beater (2020 Chevy Cruze), downsizing to a 330i as my only car. … unless I get a wild hair and get that 911. Then, I'd keep the Cruze for another six years.

Oddly, it was a proper "plug-patch system" puncture repair that failed after 35k mikes, not a quickie Billy-Bob plug. You do everything right, but sometimes **** still happens.

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

My 2007 Cobalt now has 123k miles on it, and it has 14 outstanding maintenance issues. My plan was to unload it at 100k miles. But, I had a puncture repair fail on a tire at 95k miles. That set of tires was almost worn out, so I got a new set. That set will have 30k+ miles and be six years old next March. So, that's my next natural stopping point.

Wow 14 is not a small number. There were cases in our household that an average trade value actually ended up close to private sale FMV, as the skipped pending repairs(that drew down the trade value) can cost close to/more than FMV minus trade.

Originally Posted by namelessman

Wow 14 is not a small number. There were cases in our household that an average trade value actually ended up close to private sale FMV, as the skipped pending repairs(that drew down the trade value) can cost close to/more than FMV minus trade.

Make that 15:

1. Wax application, upper
2. Rotate tires
3. Replace turn signal stalk
4. Replace vent cover (below windshield wipers)
5. Replace steering wheel
6. Replace driver's and both rear power window motors
7. Replace right headlight cable assembly
8. Replace daytime running lights relay
9. Replace reverse lights bulbs
10. Replace transmission fluid
11. Replace engine air filter
12. Replace spark plugs
13. Replace brake fluid
14. Replace cabin air filter
15. Replace engine belts


Until this week, it's been too hot in my garage to mess with any of this. I'll knock out the first two this week. I have the new turn signal stalk, steering wheel, and vent cover sitting in our dining room.

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

Make that 15:

1. Wax application, upper
2. Rotate tires
3. Replace turn signal stalk
4. Replace vent cover (below windshield wipers)
5. Replace steering wheel
6. Replace driver's and both rear power window motors
7. Replace right headlight cable assembly
8. Replace daytime running lights relay
9. Replace reverse lights bulbs
10. Replace transmission fluid
11. Replace engine air filter
12. Replace spark plugs
13. Replace brake fluid
14. Replace cabin air filter
15. Replace engine belts


Until this week, it's been too hot in my garage to mess with any of this. I'll knock out the first two this week. I have the new turn signal stalk, steering wheel, and vent cover sitting in our dining room.

Most of these are maintenance and/or simple DIY repairs, may be #3, 5. 6. 7 should be counted as pending repairs, so it does not look too bad.

Originally Posted by namelessman

Most of these are maintenance and/or simple DIY repairs, may be #3, 5. 6. 7 should be counted as pending repairs, so it does not look too bad.

I'll have everything knocked off by the end of the year. The car will be almost 100% when I sell it in March or April... except for the then six year old tires. Even all fixed up, it's worth somewhere between $2.5k and $3k. I've already got a buyer, a millionaire friend of mine who has two more years to retirement. He's nursing another 12 year old SUV until retirement. But, the Cobalt's better on gas and more fun to drive. He'll get a new car when he retires, and then hand it off to his semi-functional cousin, Billy Bob. Billy Bob will have the nicest car in the trailer park.

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

I'll have everything knocked off by the end of the year. The car will be almost 100% when I sell it in March or April... except for the then six year old tires. Even all fixed up, it's worth somewhere between $2.5k and $3k. I've already got a buyer, a millionaire friend of mine who has two more years to retirement. He's nursing another 12 year old SUV until retirement. But, the Cobalt's better on gas and more fun to drive. He'll get a new car when he retires, and then hand it off to his semi-functional cousin, Billy Bob. Billy Bob will have the nicest car in the trailer park.

If your pending customer offers $2k now before all 15 items are done then it will be a fair deal for your saved time.

Originally Posted by namelessman

If your pending customer offers $2k now before all 15 items are done then it will be a fair deal for your saved time.

Yeah, but then I'd have to hear him bitching about all the things he have had to do to the car. Also, I always want a Plan B in place... in case he backs out, dies, wins Power Ball, etc.

OP:
I too have a 2013 335i M sport which I bought back in Oct 2012; it now has 97K miles, can't wait to hit the century mark! I also bought the extended maintenance but not the extended warranty. Things that I had to pay for out of warranty were the fuel injector replacement (got stranded in April this year) which cost me over $900 (dealer) and the valve cover gasket replacement (also this year) which cost me over $800 (indy). I'm somewhat of a mechanic so I replaced the high pressure coolant hose (leak), OFHG (leak), OCG (leak) and the oil changes myself; that's my connection to this driving machine. I'm keeping it because it still runs great and I have no car payments. Trade in value is mostly on the low end; private party sale is better but you have to put in time to advertise and show it.

If I were you, I'd keep driving it; just be prepared to pay or DIY for common items that occur in BMWs.

I hope that higher salary won't bring more stress and extra hours

Good luck!

Originally Posted by namelessman

Most of these are maintenance and/or simple DIY repairs, may be #3, 5. 6. 7 should be counted as pending repairs, so it does not look too bad.

The left-rear power window started working again, yesterday. Before that, the right-front was the only one working, and all four motors have already been replaced once before.

Originally Posted by LarryboysUDM

OP:
I too have a 2013 335i M sport which I bought back in Oct 2012; it now has 97K miles, can't wait to hit the century mark! I also bought the extended maintenance but not the extended warranty. Things that I had to pay for out of warranty were the fuel injector replacement (got stranded in April this year) which cost me over $900 (dealer) and the valve cover gasket replacement (also this year) which cost me over $800 (indy). I'm somewhat of a mechanic so I replaced the high pressure coolant hose (leak), OFHG (leak), OCG (leak) and the oil changes myself; that's my connection to this driving machine. I'm keeping it because it still runs great and I have no car payments. Trade in value is mostly on the low end; private party sale is better but you have to put in time to advertise and show it.

If I were you, I'd keep driving it; just be prepared to pay or DIY for common items that occur in BMWs.

I hope that higher salary won't bring more stress and extra hours

Good luck!

OCG is oil case/oil pan gasket? How much was paid for your 2013 335i?

My 328i with 70k was bought Oct 2012 too. No extended maintenance and repair were purchased, maintenance so far has been 6k-7k miles oil changes, brake fluid + coolants at dealer for $700 total, spark plugs [email protected], and $80 DIY for air/cabin filters + wiper(overpaid for non-BMW parts!) Coolant hoses, OFHG, OPG all seem OK so far.

Hmm higher compensation and more stress and extra hours .... the way of life!

Originally Posted by Autoputzer

The left-rear power window started working again, yesterday. Before that, the right-front was the only one working, and all four motors have already been replaced once before.

A revival of a power window regulator/motor is rare in NorCal climate.