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  #1  
Old 01-15-2019, 02:16 AM
pony_trekker pony_trekker is offline
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Competitive deals

Spike in interest rates/money factors has led to many of these leases no longer looking competitive. There's no way I am paying a hundred bucks more to lease the same car, not worth it.

Is there any one of these models where there's a drastic discount?

And not a fan enough of these cars to buy one cash -- rather spend that on something bulletproof but boring, e.g., land cruiser.
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Old 01-15-2019, 05:58 AM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Originally Posted by pony_trekker View Post
Spike in interest rates/money factors has led to many of these leases no longer looking competitive. There's no way I am paying a hundred bucks more to lease the same car, not worth it.

Is there any one of these models where there's a drastic discount?

And not a fan enough of these cars to buy one cash -- rather spend that on something bulletproof but boring, e.g., land cruiser.
Look at the 6GT. If you can stomach the looks, you can likely score yourself a pretty darn good deal on one (because most people cant stomach the looks, so they dont sell).

7 Series, those normally have money on them.

If you mean any of the bread and butter (X1, X3, X5, 3 Series, 5 Series), then no.

The issue many of us have is that, leasing in 2016 was REALLY good. BMW decided it was too good, and pivoted the other way. If you are not going to buy a car, and you dont want to lease one for "a hundred more than the last one", you might want to start looking around at other brands. Its very hard to pay a hundred to 150 more for the same car, not as hard for a different car, or a different brand.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:07 AM
deenx deenx is offline
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IMO The mistake they are making (besides the absurd lineup of vehicles and iterations which ultimately add all kinds of costs) is not recognizing the real possibility of a slowing Chinese and US economy. This is exactly when you need incentives... not when interest rates are near 0 and the demand cycle is increasing.
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Old 01-15-2019, 09:31 AM
MJBrown62 MJBrown62 is offline
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IMO The mistake they are making (besides the absurd lineup of vehicles and iterations which ultimately add all kinds of costs) is not recognizing the real possibility of a slowing Chinese and US economy. This is exactly when you need incentives... not when interest rates are near 0 and the demand cycle is increasing.
Just depends on the model. Examples:

2018 330e: $6,750 if you have loyalty and lease

2019 330 SW: $4,250 with loyalty, lease or finance

2019 4-series: $5,500 with loyalty and finance

2019 5-series: $4,000 with loyalty and finance

The better incentives are attached to financing with BMWFS.
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Old 01-15-2019, 09:41 AM
ctorrey ctorrey is offline
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Originally Posted by pony_trekker View Post
Spike in interest rates/money factors has led to many of these leases no longer looking competitive. There's no way I am paying a hundred bucks more to lease the same car, not worth it.

Is there any one of these models where there's a drastic discount?

And not a fan enough of these cars to buy one cash -- rather spend that on something bulletproof but boring, e.g., land cruiser.
This is my fear. I leased a $64k 340xi in May of 2017 for under $550/mo (plus tax) with no cap cost reduction. We also leased a $54k X3 2.8i at the same time for under $500/mo (same conditions). Given the climbing money factors, decreasing residuals, changes to programs such as MSDs, etc., I fully expect a replacement '20 M340i to lease for $100 - $150/mo more than I'm paying now - depending on rebates and incentives. Similar story with the X3. My CA is going to have to work next time around if he expects leases 6 & 7 from me!
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Old 01-15-2019, 10:28 AM
pony_trekker pony_trekker is offline
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Originally Posted by MJBrown62 View Post
Just depends on the model. Examples:

2018 330e: $6,750 if you have loyalty and lease

2019 330 SW: $4,250 with loyalty, lease or finance

2019 4-series: $5,500 with loyalty and finance

2019 5-series: $4,000 with loyalty and finance

The better incentives are attached to financing with BMWFS.
Yeah less aghast over buying an older model (4 series over the 5). I am. meh with another GC but not enough to keep forever.

4.55 i rate very uninticing. And always been lease or buy and keep forever.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:40 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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Yeah less aghast over buying an older model (4 series over the 5). I am. meh with another GC but not enough to keep forever.

4.55 i rate very uninticing. And always been lease or buy and keep forever.
Right now for instance, southern cali is 4.55% interest rate to buy, but nor cal is advertised as 2.89% (or was when I looked a week ago). I know we have a big state, but thats two different interest rates in the same state with the regionalized incentives.

I could have bought and got 3.99 from my credit union, but ultimately decided to lease the X3 (which has a payment $75.00 more than the X5 it replaced, even though the X3 MSRP was ~67k and the X5 was ~75k). This is also with me getting a great deal on the X3, and extending my MSDs on it. if I got an "average" deal on it, or didnt re up my MSDs, the payment would have been >800 for sure.

If BMW had all that money on the 4 series when I was deciding a few months ago, I might be in a BMW 4 series now instead of my "other" car that I bought.

If BMW had pull ahead when I was deciding, I almost DEFINITELY would have been in another 4 series. By getting rid of the pull ahead, they are letting people "hit the open market" who are leasing... removing a main advantage they had to keep turning those over.

I just figure that some loss of customers was built into their models, but it doesnt help the dealer. Instead of me being a "2 new bmw every 3 years" household, for my car I am basically "off the market" as I bought i. For my wifes X3, we leased it, and will see where we go in 3 years.

I know for me, if they had pull ahead, I likely would not have looked outside of BMW because I love the brand (and still do).

With that being said, they need to replace customers who were used to these aggressive deals, with people who THIS pricing right now is the "normal" pricing. For every veteran they lose because the value proposition has changed, they need to pick up a new person, who only knows THIS pricing as the value proposition.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:45 PM
MJBrown62 MJBrown62 is offline
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Originally Posted by jjrandorin View Post
... With that being said, they need to replace customers who were used to these aggressive deals, with people who THIS pricing right now is the "normal" pricing. For every veteran they lose because the value proposition has changed, they need to pick up a new person, who only knows THIS pricing as the value proposition.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:53 PM
deenx deenx is offline
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I don't really consider a 3-month pull ahead aggressive. Those three months mean nothing to BMW and really help to shore up customer brand loyalty. Companies spend fortunes trying to develop the customer base who are brand loyal like BMW. To see them throw it away in pursuit of the new customer seems like a rookie mistake. Once the veterans leave... you are starting over.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:03 PM
jjrandorin jjrandorin is offline
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I don't really consider a 3-month pull ahead aggressive. Those three months mean nothing to BMW and really help to shore up customer brand loyalty. Companies spend fortunes trying to develop the customer base who are brand loyal like BMW. To see them throw it away in pursuit of the new customer seems like a rookie mistake. Once the veterans leave... you are starting over.
Those pull aheads likely were somewhere between 1500 -2500 a customer. I would consider that a pretty substantial amount. many people will shop dealers to save $200, and almost everyone would pick one dealer over another to save 1500-2k, so....
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:23 PM
pony_trekker pony_trekker is offline
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I don't really consider a 3-month pull ahead aggressive. Those three months mean nothing to BMW and really help to shore up customer brand loyalty. Companies spend fortunes trying to develop the customer base who are brand loyal like BMW. To see them throw it away in pursuit of the new customer seems like a rookie mistake. Once the veterans leave... you are starting over.
Right. Instead of negotiating with someone while they are under contract, you are guaranteeing they hit the open market. At BMWs choice.

It would be as if the Nats refused to negotiate with Bryce Harper until he became a FA. Nothing could be more off-putting.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:42 PM
MJBrown62 MJBrown62 is offline
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Right. Instead of negotiating with someone while they are under contract, you are guaranteeing they hit the open market. At BMWs choice.

It would be as if the Nats refused to negotiate with Bryce Harper until he became a FA. Nothing could be more off-putting.
They are asking the dealers to take on the pull ahead out of dealer profit. But for below invoice buyers, that eliminates that option.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:30 PM
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They are asking the dealers to take on the pull ahead out of dealer profit. But for below invoice buyers, that eliminates that option.
Was it always like this, pull ahead out of dealer profit, or recently changed? Personally, I never have used pulled ahead, as I would rather extend the lease and amortization the bank fee over a few more months. Also, knowing the upcoming product pipeline launch dates, I would delay getting into a new lease so when it finished the new model would be on the market for greater than 1 year, as this when the discounts start. Also, I have delayed a new lease into the next calander year to quailify for the BMW CCA rebate with multiple leases.
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Old 01-16-2019, 03:44 AM
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That's interesting and surprising. One of the many reasons all of us have been loyal BMW customers is how the dealerships treat the customer. If BMW is allowing the dealerships to use extra margin as they see fit, then it gets far more difficult to negotiate the deal. (Another topic for another time is the franchise dealer model. As this industry tries to transition to what's next.... the entire negotiation experience has got to change as it's only harboring resentment, frustration and is incredibly inefficient as it takes far too long to get the deal finished. While most of us try to do email deals, there are still parts of the country that are just not interested in communicating by email.)

In any event, I'm still trying to get a deal done on an X5. The lease is laughable and my advisor is laughing with me as he advised I try to wait until the summer. Unfortunately, that's not possible and BMW is going to lose this customer.
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Old 01-16-2019, 06:39 AM
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. In any event, I'm still trying to get a deal done on an X5. The lease is laughable and my advisor is laughing with me as he advised I try to wait until the summer. Unfortunately, that's not possible and BMW is going to lose this customer.
The G05 is an all-new model and a majority of the X vehicle line-up are strong sellers. Why should BMW NA offer strong incentives, as it's supply and demand? It's a for-profit business. Just wait until the economy contracts, which is expected with the ongoing government shutdown. Driving a BMW is a luxury, as any vehicle can get you from point A to B.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:52 PM
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Was it always like this, pull ahead out of dealer profit, or recently changed?
Changed when they ended the pull ahead. With the true pull ahead, BMWFS was absorbing the payments. Now we need to do it if we want to bring in clients off-lease early.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:59 PM
MJBrown62 MJBrown62 is offline
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That's interesting and surprising. One of the many reasons all of us have been loyal BMW customers is how the dealerships treat the customer. If BMW is allowing the dealerships to use extra margin as they see fit, then it gets far more difficult to negotiate the deal. (Another topic for another time is the franchise dealer model. As this industry tries to transition to what's next.... the entire negotiation experience has got to change as it's only harboring resentment, frustration and is incredibly inefficient as it takes far too long to get the deal finished. While most of us try to do email deals, there are still parts of the country that are just not interested in communicating by email.)

In any event, I'm still trying to get a deal done on an X5. The lease is laughable and my advisor is laughing with me as he advised I try to wait until the summer. Unfortunately, that's not possible and BMW is going to lose this customer.
As Ibiza wisely noted, you're asking for a deal on BMW USA's best selling vehicle. And a 59% 10k residual is pretty good.

The problem is the lease is not competitive with a Q7 or GLS. Supply and Demand doesn't always work when a competitive lease is $100+ less a month comparatively.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:51 PM
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There is a $10k dealer rebate on remaining 2018 Audi A6 and A7, and $15k on S6, S7, and RS7 right now. This is on top the the consumer rebate. So that's the one to get if you need a car right now... you should be able to get close to $20k off MSRP. Money factor blows but the sales price should be low enough to keep monthly lease payment reasonable.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:10 PM
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I don't really consider a 3-month pull ahead aggressive. Those three months mean nothing to BMW and really help to shore up customer brand loyalty. Companies spend fortunes trying to develop the customer base who are brand loyal like BMW. To see them throw it away in pursuit of the new customer seems like a rookie mistake. Once the veterans leave... you are starting over.
Your argument would be correct if the veterans and the new customers were equally profitable. But the new guy is going to pay over invoice (maybe full MSRP), not going to get Loyalty, not going to get an OL code from a Drive event (or whatever it's called this year), not going to get a BMWCCA rebate, yada, yada. If I can fund butts to put into all the seats I manufacture, why wouldn't I want the most profitable butts I can find?

It's not so much that BMWNA doesn't like us old timers. They just don't need us as badly right now. Once the economy turns, they'll come back to us on bended knee.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:21 PM
MJBrown62 MJBrown62 is offline
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But the new guy is going to pay over invoice (maybe full MSRP) ...
Had to chuckle on that one ... other than on the M2, I'm not sure anyone is paying MSRP anymore.
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:15 PM
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Had to chuckle on that one ... other than on the M2, I'm not sure anyone is paying MSRP anymore.
That's the trouble I'm running into now. My lease on my '16 3 series ends in about 3 weeks (I've already made the final payment). My natural instinct is to go with the new 2019 3 series. I'm not interested in the 2018 models (because they're now dated in my eyes) even though I know those will be discounted. But my regular salesperson at my local dealer basically told me he's only offering MSRP on the incoming cars (they'll have some next week) because, in his words, it "Will be the hottest car out there for the next few months." He even tried to pull the "How much do you want to pay per month?" move on me like I was some inexperienced rube.

So, it looks like I may be moving on from the brand at this time because I have no interest in paying a premium now just because it's the newest model. I'm not some uber-enthusiast who has to have the new one right on release date. It's just timing is all.
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Old 01-16-2019, 05:27 PM
pony_trekker pony_trekker is offline
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That's the trouble I'm running into now. My lease on my '16 3 series ends in about 3 weeks (I've already made the final payment). My natural instinct is to go with the new 2019 3 series. I'm not interested in the 2018 models (because they're now dated in my eyes) even though I know those will be discounted. But my regular salesperson at my local dealer basically told me he's only offering MSRP on the incoming cars (they'll have some next week) because, in his words, it "Will be the hottest car out there for the next few months." He even tried to pull the "How much do you want to pay per month?" move on me like I was some inexperienced rube.

So, it looks like I may be moving on from the brand at this time because I have no interest in paying a premium now just because it's the newest model. I'm not some uber-enthusiast who has to have the new one right on release date. It's just timing is all.
Yeah I am not some kid on line at Supreme. I emailed my sales guy and have a feeling the steer toward loaners is going to happen. No interest.

I will take a peek at A6. The price may turn out oK but the residuals look disgusting, I got a gift card for test driving an A5 recently and while I thought the car was fine, I didn't appreciate the whole 4 squares song and dance and being clowned with an obscene lease quote. Which I didn't even ask for.

I am also seeing Volvo has some interesting programs. Already have one for the kid.

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Old 01-17-2019, 05:19 AM
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As Ibiza wisely noted, you're asking for a deal on BMW USA's best selling vehicle. And a 59% 10k residual is pretty good.

The problem is the lease is not competitive with a Q7 or GLS. Supply and Demand doesn't always work when a competitive lease is $100+ less a month comparatively.
The real issue
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Old 01-17-2019, 12:27 PM
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That's the trouble I'm running into now. My lease on my '16 3 series ends in about 3 weeks (I've already made the final payment).

So, it looks like I may be moving on from the brand at this time because I have no interest in paying a premium now just because it's the newest model. I'm not some uber-enthusiast who has to have the new one right on release date. It's just timing is all.
BMWFS will extend your lease if you have another BMW on order. Hit up Greg Poland at Pacific BMW and order the exact car you want, at a deal you will love. Drive the current one for 2 more months till it arrives. If you decide you don't like the 2019 just refuse delivery; Greg will have no problem finding another buyer for it.
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Old 01-17-2019, 01:13 PM
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BMWFS will extend your lease if you have another BMW on order. Hit up Greg Poland at Pacific BMW and order the exact car you want, at a deal you will love. Drive the current one for 2 more months till it arrives. If you decide you don't like the 2019 just refuse delivery; Greg will have no problem finding another buyer for it.
Thanks, that helps! I've already reached out to Greg to see what they've got on the way; they expect stock around the 22nd.

I have considered the lease extension. However, if I do, then I'll have to renew my license tag (expires Feb 9), which is $400, so I have to consider that cost as well.
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