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  #26  
Old 08-28-2008, 06:25 AM
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adrian's bmw adrian's bmw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilotman View Post
I predict incentives will return in a few months or so.

BMW sales will continue to drop, and even if BMW is able to perform well over the next 6 months by clearing out old inventory and limiting new production, the fact remains that they will probably be selling far LESS cars and making LESS money.

Isn't there a statistic that something like 60-70% of BMWs were leased?

Their high sticker prices combined with average at best financing rates, plus crappy residuals and low MFs on leases will surely drive away some buyers, me included.

I will do a short term lease on something else until BMW improves things for me....I love the cars but refuse to pay through the nose for them.
Sure, there will be incentives, but I think they'll eventually be light and not heavy due to the tightening of the production spigot.

Indeed, IMO, BMW will sell less cars in the US, but make up for that in other markets (Russia, India, China).

There used to be a lower lease penetration years ago, but due to strong pre-owned demend, the high residuals and reliably predictable high resale values helped BMW sales growth over the years. It made sense to increase the lease penetration because you knew you'd have a strong pre-owned market to back up those high residuals. The problem this year is that used car prices collapsed overall with SUVs leading the way. If you don't have a strong pre-owned market, you can't support the new car market with strong leases. That's why if you wean yourself a bit from leasing and take a more balanced ownership/leasing ratio, less supply, then the resale vales and residuals will creep back up.

Last edited by adrian's bmw; 08-28-2008 at 06:29 AM.
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  #27  
Old 08-28-2008, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by philippek View Post
Looks like option credits live to see another month. In general, money factors are going up, residuals are crashing (particularly on 24 month terms), and finance rates are going up 1-4 points, depending on model. Bottom line: I've got 5 days to get rid of 400 cars
I would expect '08 residuals to crash at the end of the year and trunk money to be thrown in if there is any stock to move.

What about '09 numbers?
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  #28  
Old 08-28-2008, 08:05 AM
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there's always a better deal around the corner. unless you're dealing with real estate or one of a kind items.
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  #29  
Old 08-28-2008, 08:09 AM
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  #30  
Old 08-28-2008, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by mapezzul View Post
According to the PDF on that link the only real change on the 335 leases is that the MF went up by .0004 on the coupe....stayed the same as last month on the sedan. Residuals appear to be the same.
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  #31  
Old 08-28-2008, 08:39 AM
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According to the PDF on that link the only real change on the 335 leases is that the MF went up by .0004 on the coupe....stayed the same as last month on the sedan. Residuals appear to be the same.
residuals are down... basically anything in BOLD is a change from last month.
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  #32  
Old 08-28-2008, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by mapezzul View Post
residuals are down... basically anything in BOLD is a change from last month.
None of the 36 month rates changed though from what I can see on the 3 series. MF on the coupe makes a small difference, but no the $80-100/month people are talking about.
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  #33  
Old 08-28-2008, 09:25 AM
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None of the 36 month rates changed though from what I can see on the 3 series. MF on the coupe makes a small difference, but no the $80-100/month people are talking about.
There are other models besides the 3 Series, and other terms than 36 months
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  #34  
Old 08-28-2008, 09:35 AM
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There are other models besides the 3 Series, and other terms than 36 months
I know, but it sounded like things would be across the board. I guess not - good news for me.
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  #35  
Old 08-28-2008, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by mapezzul View Post
If you want to see the shifts in BMWs strategy play out.

Run a lease calculation (24/30) on a M3. With the residuals just above 50%. Depereciation on shorter lease terms is at least $1200 (24mon.) Add another >$200 for rent and a low optioned M3 lease is approaching $1500/[email protected] 36 months, starts getting better but it is still way north of 1k.

Basically, BMWNA is saying we don't want write short term leases on M3s.

Last edited by bmwKbiker; 08-28-2008 at 10:24 AM.
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  #36  
Old 09-02-2008, 02:02 PM
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If you ask me, there's a lot of dealer hype on this forum for the 0.9% financing stuff. Before August it was "no way this deal is coming back after July!". Why wouldn't it have? It was pretty much one of the last months of the 08s. I believe .9% financing will carry on with whatever is left on the lots until it's gone. Just seems like common sense. Why would you offer a crappier finance rate if you still have 08s to clean up on the lot?

I think a lot of dealers on this forum just want to spread the antsy-ness to make you jump on the deal. Just my 2 cents
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  #37  
Old 09-02-2008, 02:36 PM
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BMW Financial Service has posted the rates for September and October. And for the most part all the rates have gone up.
And I can agree with you the the rates should stay the same with only a few months left in the year.
Think of it the other way, if the CA's did not say a word about the rates and they expired, would that be better? We only post what is given to us from BMWFS. If rates change midstream, well, we can't predict that. But with what we where given last week, the rates have gone up.

Early bird gets the worm!
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  #38  
Old 09-02-2008, 02:41 PM
dan74 dan74 is offline
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[QUOTE=New Motors;3516967]BMW Financial Service has posted the rates for September and October.
/QUOTE]

So what is the APR for 2009 328xi. BMW site doesn't have anything yet.
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  #39  
Old 09-02-2008, 02:57 PM
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the '09 residuals are not out yet...probably mid-september. No sales support on MY 2009 cars as far as financing or anything else has been announced.
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  #40  
Old 09-02-2008, 03:14 PM
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94- True. The only things posted are for 08's
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  #41  
Old 09-02-2008, 03:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BryanH View Post
If you ask me, there's a lot of dealer hype on this forum for the 0.9% financing stuff. Before August it was "no way this deal is coming back after July!". Why wouldn't it have? It was pretty much one of the last months of the 08s. I believe .9% financing will carry on with whatever is left on the lots until it's gone. Just seems like common sense. Why would you offer a crappier finance rate if you still have 08s to clean up on the lot?

I think a lot of dealers on this forum just want to spread the antsy-ness to make you jump on the deal. Just my 2 cents
That's pretty much NOT the way the dealers who post on this forum work. They provide the best information they have at the time. For those who prefer to wait and take their chances, that's their choice.
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  #42  
Old 09-02-2008, 05:03 PM
beashonda beashonda is offline
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That's pretty much NOT the way the dealers who post on this forum work. They provide the best information they have at the time. For those who prefer to wait and take their chances, that's their choice.
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  #43  
Old 09-03-2008, 06:57 AM
Mynoles1 Mynoles1 is offline
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Are the residuals listed based on 12000 miles, and if so, do you still add back the 3% for 10,000 mile/year leases (328i numbers)?
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  #44  
Old 09-03-2008, 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by tturedraider View Post
That's pretty much NOT the way the dealers who post on this forum work. They provide the best information they have at the time. For those who prefer to wait and take their chances, that's their choice.
+1 - you wait or jump on the offers available based on your own personal circumstances. The dealers here give their best advice based on what they know and what they are allowed to be let known - they are not allowed to tell me/us/you what the September 3rd incentives will be until the day arrives... now... that said... Adrian, PhillipeK et al... what are they?
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  #45  
Old 09-03-2008, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by wyb View Post
+1 - you wait or jump on the offers available based on your own personal circumstances. The dealers here give their best advice based on what they know and what they are allowed to be let known - they are not allowed to tell me/us/you what the September 3rd incentives will be until the day arrives... now... that said... Adrian, PhillipeK et al... what are they?

Site not updated yet it seems, still showing 0.9% good through Sept 2. I drove by Global Imports this past weekend and their garages were packed all the way to the roof level. Not sure how much inventories were moved over the last two months but I wonder if the rates go up how on Earth will they get empty to make room for MY09
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  #46  
Old 09-03-2008, 09:34 AM
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yes, BMW are horrible about updating their website in a timely manner - it MIGHT be later today or tomorrow before they get round to it; especially if their previous two updates I have watch are anything to go by.

That's really why I was asking if Adrian or anyone else at a dealer can post the details ahead of BMW getting their web team off their butts...
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  #47  
Old 09-03-2008, 10:08 AM
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the updates come around 3 today.
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  #48  
Old 09-03-2008, 10:11 AM
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Are the residuals listed based on 12000 miles, and if so, do you still add back the 3% for 10,000 mile/year leases (328i numbers)?

Posted at 10k.
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  #49  
Old 09-03-2008, 10:23 AM
New Motors New Motors is offline
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Just updated. No info on 09's. The Push will be on the 08 Build out. OP Discount is still in effect. And WOW, 25,400 BMW's last month, Not to shabby.
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  #50  
Old 09-03-2008, 10:28 AM
philippek philippek is offline
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+1 - you wait or jump on the offers available based on your own personal circumstances. The dealers here give their best advice based on what they know and what they are allowed to be let known - they are not allowed to tell me/us/you what the September 3rd incentives will be until the day arrives... now... that said... Adrian, PhillipeK et al... what are they?
Depending on your point of view, BMW is either being incredibly masterful in managing the 08 build-out, or they have completely lost all integrity.

You've seen the pressure they've applied to dealers and consumers. They've employed scare tactics like I've never seen before. And they are not afraid to change the game at any point. You've seen the bulletin which was published on the 27th. Just this morning another amended bulletin came out, and I'm hearing from reliable sources that another adjustment may be just around the corner.

The bottom line is that BMW is pulling back from the broad support which they offered across the line. Now they are agressively targeting those models which are still stuck on the ground. The bigger the car, the bigger the deal: 7 series, M5s, M6s and now even M3s are seeing sales support.

Some models are pretty much gone, and sales support has decreased or evaporated: 3 series coupes and convertibles and AWD coupes, sedans and wagons.

Still other models are chugging along according to plan, and sales support has diminished, although only slightly: Z4, 5 series, X3 and X5.

There are two areas where significant new opportunities have opened: 335i sedans and 135i convertibles. Both have programs this month which are better than ever.

And the one car which has defied all expectations, particularly my own, is the X6. Say what you want about that car, but BMW can't make them fast enough. Clearly there is a certain buyer who wants that car and simply isn't concerned about the price of gas or what other people think about it's relative eco-friendliness.

And that's all I'll say here for now. PM or email for more specifics.

Last edited by philippek; 09-03-2008 at 11:58 AM.
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