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  #1  
Old 04-28-2019, 02:45 PM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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Market value vs. book value on my car. WTF?

My job situation requires a cheaper car I can beat up and pile miles on. Book value looks like $26k'ish, but I'm seeing them for mid-$30s online. My car isn't real common, so I know it won't appeal to everyone. But for those who want a 330i wagon, I think they may be willing to travel and pay. I know this can't be added into the book value, but my car has three years of unlimited mile warranty. That has to be worth something to someone. Just wondering if I can get out from under it, owing about $31.9k, without having to come out of pocket. Not trying to make this a veiled for sale ad, just wondering what realistic price difference is between book and street. Thanks.
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Old 04-28-2019, 05:31 PM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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BMW's wagons have limited appeal. But, they're highly coveted by those who want one.

I had real good luck selling a relatively rare BMW on BMW Car Club of America's website (BMWCCA.org). Ads are free for members. My car sold in 12 hours for more than Kelly Blue Book.
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Old 04-28-2019, 06:48 PM
BabyUnicornTaco BabyUnicornTaco is offline
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The warranty you have means a lot. Test the market. List for what you want and see what happens.


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Old 04-28-2019, 06:52 PM
caswcu caswcu is offline
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whats does edmunds and kbb say is private value? also find what they are selling for at auction and add a few thousand.
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Old 04-28-2019, 07:09 PM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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Networking also sells cars. I've sold eleven cars in my life. Nine of them were sold to friends or co-workers. I have a list of people waiting for our BMW's and even for my twelve year old Chevy Cobalt.

BMW's depreciate faster than appliance cars. Figure the first year's depreciation being 25% (off of MSPR). The second year's depreciation would be another 20% off of the value after one year. So, a two year old BMW would be worth maybe 60% of MSRP. Low mileage would help, but not that much. High mileage hurts more than low mileage helps. Wagons are a love/hate thing. Also, BMW wagons in the U.S. are all xDrives. xDrive sells in places were it normally snows a lot. It's hard to get rid of an xDrive BMW in Floriduh, too.

Another thought is that your $26k BMW is now a beater. I have a personal project that will require me to travel about 40k miles over the next 18 to 24 months. I'll soon replace my $3k 2007 Cobalt beater with a $20k 2020 Chevy Sonic beater. But, my 2014 535i is only worth $21k. If I put off buying the Sonic another year, it will be worth more than my BMW when I bring it home from the dealership.

Last edited by Autoputzer; 04-28-2019 at 07:19 PM.
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Old 04-29-2019, 08:40 PM
John MS John MS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Lee View Post
My job situation requires a cheaper car I can beat up and pile miles on. Book value looks like $26k'ish, but I'm seeing them for mid-$30s online. My car isn't real common, so I know it won't appeal to everyone. But for those who want a 330i wagon, I think they may be willing to travel and pay. I know this can't be added into the book value, but my car has three years of unlimited mile warranty. That has to be worth something to someone. Just wondering if I can get out from under it, owing about $31.9k, without having to come out of pocket. Not trying to make this a veiled for sale ad, just wondering what realistic price difference is between book and street. Thanks.
The market value for your car really is what someone pays for it. You can estimate the market value using one of the online apprsisal services but that is only an estimate. The equity in your car is market value less loan balance. The book value is your cost.

I think the remaining warranty has value and most buyers would be willing to.pay something less than what you paid. Maybe 75% as a starting point.

I'm having some difficulty understanding the financial justification for selling a car that is probably under water. Then spending more money on another used car. You could rack up miles on the used BMW as easily as on a used Honda Accord.

Last edited by John MS; 04-29-2019 at 08:53 PM.
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Old 04-30-2019, 06:53 AM
jparnes1 jparnes1 is offline
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Why are you shooting yourself in the foot by selling a car whose value is less than what you owe? It makes no sense. Just drive it and next time make a significant down payment and/or take out a shorter loan.


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Old 04-30-2019, 12:46 PM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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I won't sell if I'm underwater. But that's the question. Per the KBB and NADA, I am underwater. Per Autotrader and eBay, I have some equity. If I could get out for even money, I'd grab a cheaper car because I just don't want to drive the Bimmer into the ground and have high miles on it when the warranty expires and I'd want to trade it in. It may be that I'm better off doing that, but the $600 payment is something I can live without, while a much cheaper car would fit my current situation a lot better. When I bought the 330i, things were very different. My situation did a 180 about two weeks after I got it.
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Lee View Post
I won't sell if I'm underwater. But that's the question. Per the KBB and NADA, I am underwater. Per Autotrader and eBay, I have some equity. If I could get out for even money, I'd grab a cheaper car because I just don't want to drive the Bimmer into the ground and have high miles on it when the warranty expires and I'd want to trade it in. It may be that I'm better off doing that, but the $600 payment is something I can live without, while a much cheaper car would fit my current situation a lot better. When I bought the 330i, things were very different. My situation did a 180 about two weeks after I got it.
Autotrader and eBay are ASK prices, not sale prices.
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Old 04-30-2019, 02:05 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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NADA clean-trade and clean-retail can be good reference points.
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Old 04-30-2019, 03:54 PM
John MS John MS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Lee View Post
I won't sell if I'm underwater. But that's the question. Per the KBB and NADA, I am underwater. Per Autotrader and eBay, I have some equity. If I could get out for even money, I'd grab a cheaper car because I just don't want to drive the Bimmer into the ground and have high miles on it when the warranty expires and I'd want to trade it in. It may be that I'm better off doing that, but the $600 payment is something I can live without, while a much cheaper car would fit my current situation a lot better. When I bought the 330i, things were very different. My situation did a 180 about two weeks after I got it.
You need to think about and understand the fundamental difference. KBB, Edmunds and other comparable sites provide a reasonable estimate of market value or what your car will sell for. The numbers found on Auto Trader and other for sale sites are asking prices of sellers who either build in negotiating room or are engaged in wishful thinking.

Your plan still does not make financial good sense. Even if you are extraordinarily lucky and do not have a loan shortfall. At this point it would make more sense to keep the car and make added principal reductions to get that loan paid off. And just drive it with no thought of trading it in.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:11 PM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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Your plan still does not make financial good sense. Even if you are extraordinarily lucky and do not have a loan shortfall. At this point it would make more sense to keep the car and make added principal reductions to get that loan paid off. And just drive it with no thought of trading it in.
I can live with this. Been thinking it over and won't be disappointed to keep this car. I really like it. I just hate driving it into the ground.
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Old 04-30-2019, 08:57 PM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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I can live with this. Been thinking it over and won't be disappointed to keep this car. I really like it. I just hate driving it into the ground.
320i's are never going to be collectable. If it was an Z8, E46 M3, or a 2002tii, yeah running it into the ground would be a waste.

I presume you'd be looking for a used car if you sold the 320i. The trouble with that is that there's risk of something being really wrong with a used car.

A long time ago, I got some advice from a millionaire. She said only borrow money three times in life:

1. For an economically relevant education.
2. For a safe and reliable first car, and only finance it for the length of the warranty period.
3. For an affordable home in a stable area.

Otherwise, "If you ain't got the money, that means you can't afford it" applies.

I'm baffled how you can be upside down after two years. I didn't follow the millionaire's advice and financed Frau Putzer's X3 last year. I did so because it got me $1700 in credits from BMW FS and the interest was 1.9% for 60 months. CD interest rates were 2.25% at the time. I financed $50k, and the car/truck had a $56.3k MSRP. Assuming that the car/truck depreciated 25% down from MSRP in the first year, I was right side up after my eleventh payment.

If you ever get to the point of having equity in the car, you might look into re-financing the car loan. Credit unions are sometimes real good about doing that. The interest rate would be higher, but your monthly payment would be lower.

Last edited by Autoputzer; 04-30-2019 at 08:58 PM.
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Old 05-01-2019, 04:36 AM
John MS John MS is offline
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A loan can be under water in the first 3 years when:
1. Low or no down.
2. Repayment over 60 to 84 months.
3. Extended warranty, service agreement and other add ons are financed.
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Old 05-01-2019, 06:25 AM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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Originally Posted by John MS View Post
A loan can be under water in the first 3 years when:
1. Low or no down.
2. Repayment over 60 to 84 months.
3. Extended warranty, service agreement and other add ons are financed.
Yep. Suze Orman used to go on rants about people getting car loans any longer than 36 months. #1 and #3 don't sound like particularly good ideas, either.

The bottom line for Frau Putzer's X3 was $55.1k, after taxes and before the BMW FS credit card points redemption. I put the remaining $5.1k on the credit card (earning 4%). We literally signed and drove. Frau Putzer's 20-something, hottie friend came with us when we went to pick up the X3. She was impressed with our sign and drive of a BMW. That will likely be the last time in my life I impress a 20-something hottie.

I worried that our signing and driving would make an unhealthy impression on the 20-something hottie. But, her rich granny provides cars for all her grandchildren. The 20-something got a new Corolla from Granny. The 20-something's older sister absolutely destroys cars. So, Granny bought Frau Putzer's twelve year old Honda Accord for her.
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:10 AM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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It's a 330i, not 320i. I did not buy or finance the warranty, though I have no doubt some of it was built into the price. The car was a dealer demo/loaner, so it had never been registered to a private party and, while I got it with 6500 miles on it, was still considered new. I never planned to keep it a day past the warranty period, but I wanted to keep the residual value such that it would be at or above the loan balance at end of the warranty period, figuring I'd just trade in for something else then. There are plenty of amortization or depreciation tables online to gauge how to do this or what kind of mileage you need to stick to. But again, my situation changed drastically right after I bought the car. I'm actually making about twice as much money now as I was then, so it's no problem to keep paying. But I'm racking up the miles a lot faster and still catching up from a few months of no to little income after a very unexpected layoff.
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:28 AM
John MS John MS is offline
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It's a 330i, not 320i. I did not buy or finance the warranty, though I have no doubt some of it was built into the price. The car was a dealer demo/loaner, so it had never been registered to a private party and, while I got it with 6500 miles on it, was still considered new. I never planned to keep it a day past the warranty period, but I wanted to keep the residual value such that it would be at or above the loan balance at end of the warranty period, figuring I'd just trade in for something else then. There are plenty of amortization or depreciation tables online to gauge how to do this or what kind of mileage you need to stick to. But again, my situation changed drastically right after I bought the car. I'm actually making about twice as much money now as I was then, so it's no problem to keep paying. But I'm racking up the miles a lot faster and still catching up from a few months of no to little income after a very unexpected layoff.
If you flip cars when the warranty expires that guarantees you will never pay directly for repairs and assures that you will repeatedly pay for a car every 3 years. That's expensive.

Buy and hold with timely maintenance and repair is the cheapest long term method of car ownership.
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Old 05-01-2019, 11:13 AM
Autoputzer Autoputzer is offline
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If you flip cars when the warranty expires that guarantees you will never pay directly for repairs and assures that you will repeatedly pay for a car every 3 years. That's expensive.

Buy and hold with timely maintenance and repair is the cheapest long term method of car ownership.
+1

I budget $2k/10k miles for maintenance and repairs after the warranty period. That's high. But, even with that the second four years and second 50k miles are still a lot cheaper (maintenance, repairs, depreciation, capital costs) than the first four years and first 50k miles. For my 535i, those costs were about $1/mile in the first 50k miles, and should be about $0.55/miles for the second 50k miles.

But, there's a limit to how long a BMW keeps getting cheaper to own. I kept my first one to 115k miles. I spent $7k on maintenance and repairs between 102k and 110k miles. There was also an uptick in depreciation during that year, about $3k. That twelfth year I was back in the new car cost. Reliability and delays getting parts became issues, also.

Last edited by Autoputzer; 05-01-2019 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 05-01-2019, 02:15 PM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Buy and hold with timely maintenance and repair is the cheapest long term method of car ownership.
Agreed. My 328i is 2.5 years out of free maintenance/warranty, and so far maintenance paid at dealer was $525, plus $1200 for 2 sets of 4 brand new Driveguards(the second set was just installed).

This I4 turbo does not run that hot in engine bay, so the plastics should last longer than previous I6. It can easily go 10 years/100k miles with normal maintenance.
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Old 05-02-2019, 07:44 AM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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I DIY all non-warranty maintenance and repairs, most recently a busted foglight on the X1. But I won't own a modern Bimmer out of warranty, not for one day. Mrs. Lee's last two Bimmers had around $12k of warranty work between them in about three years of ownership of each. That's just ridiculous. My old E30 was insanely reliable, never had a mechanical issue in 244k miles, just regular maintenance. Now, get off my lawn!
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:22 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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I DIY all non-warranty maintenance and repairs, most recently a busted foglight on the X1. But I won't own a modern Bimmer out of warranty, not for one day. Mrs. Lee's last two Bimmers had around $12k of warranty work between them in about three years of ownership of each. That's just ridiculous. My old E30 was insanely reliable, never had a mechanical issue in 244k miles, just regular maintenance. Now, get off my lawn!
What year and model of the other 2 bimmers that costed $12k of warranty work? What kinds of repairs were needed, and those were out-of-warranty fixes, right?
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:44 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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+1

I budget $2k/10k miles for maintenance and repairs after the warranty period. That's high. But, even with that the second four years and second 50k miles are still a lot cheaper (maintenance, repairs, depreciation, capital costs) than the first four years and first 50k miles. For my 535i, those costs were about $1/mile in the first 50k miles, and should be about $0.55/miles for the second 50k miles.

But, there's a limit to how long a BMW keeps getting cheaper to own. I kept my first one to 115k miles. I spent $7k on maintenance and repairs between 102k and 110k miles. There was also an uptick in depreciation during that year, about $3k. That twelfth year I was back in the new car cost. Reliability and delays getting parts became issues, also.
My old E39 TOC was $47k inclusive of repair, maintenance, tires, for 12 years and 100k miles, so roughly $0.47/mile.

It was a 530i 5MT with just premium package(leather, moonroof), xenon, alarm, wood trim, with zero tech.

Any non-basic tech stuff usually depreciates to $0, and increase final TOC.
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:57 AM
Rick Lee Rick Lee is offline
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What year and model of the other 2 bimmers that costed $12k of warranty work? What kinds of repairs were needed, and those were out-of-warranty fixes, right?
Her 2008 328i coupe was around $7500 between a/c, control arms and some engine stuff. I forget exactly, as it's been a while. But when the a/c died for the second time in three years and the estimate was $2800 right after the warranty expired we traded it in. Her 2014 X1 is at around $6000 for warranty repairs so far - $4300 for turbo replacement and $1800 for the cracked (plastic) oil pan and gasket replacement.
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Old 05-02-2019, 09:22 AM
John MS John MS is offline
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+1

I budget $2k/10k miles for maintenance and repairs after the warranty period. That's high. But, even with that the second four years and second 50k miles are still a lot cheaper (maintenance, repairs, depreciation, capital costs) than the first four years and first 50k miles. For my 535i, those costs were about $1/mile in the first 50k miles, and should be about $0.55/miles for the second 50k miles.

But, there's a limit to how long a BMW keeps getting cheaper to own. I kept my first one to 115k miles. I spent $7k on maintenance and repairs between 102k and 110k miles. There was also an uptick in depreciation during that year, about $3k. That twelfth year I was back in the new car cost. Reliability and delays getting parts became issues, also.
Depreciation should be based on what you paid for the car. Your cost over the life of the car.
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Old 05-02-2019, 09:41 AM
namelessman namelessman is offline
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Originally Posted by Rick Lee View Post
Her 2008 328i coupe was around $7500 between a/c, control arms and some engine stuff. I forget exactly, as it's been a while. But when the a/c died for the second time in three years and the estimate was $2800 right after the warranty expired we traded it in. Her 2014 X1 is at around $6000 for warranty repairs so far - $4300 for turbo replacement and $1800 for the cracked (plastic) oil pan and gasket replacement.
Got it, those are covered by extended warranty then. $7500 and $6000 payout are pretty good.

My mileage usually is not high enough to get value from extended warranty, as those contracts have lifetime cap plugged at FMV at time of repair, so a 10-yr old F30 at $7k will not get paid more than $7k in claims, lifetime.
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