Model 3 starts delivery, is that really the 3-series killer?

namelessman · Jul 28, 2017

So the news says today the first 30 Model 3 will be delivered. It looks like Musk is on schedule this time.

Will prospective F30 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 instead?

ctorrey · Jul 28, 2017

I wouldn't, but that's just me.

smak91 · Jul 28, 2017

I second that :thumbdwn:

181562 · Jul 28, 2017

The answer is: It depends. I'd consider one (earlier in the year I was looking at the Chevy Volt) but not as my sole vehicle. While the Model 3 (and Chevy Bolt) is an improvement in electric vehicles they still have a ways to go before they're going to replace fossil fuel powered vehicles. Part of that ways to go is a supporting infrastructure.

Rebound · Jul 28, 2017

sunny5280 said:
. Part of that ways to go is a supporting infrastructure.

Yeah, electricity is really hard to find...

victor953 · Jul 28, 2017

I'd go for Tesla just because they are starting up. And they are trying. It doesn't hurt to help your fellow entrepreneurs. Once BMW rolls out its electric 3 series to compete with the model 3 damn boi. But cmon.

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namelessman · Jul 28, 2017

victor953 said:
I'd go for Tesla just because they are starting up. And they are trying. It doesn't hurt to help your fellow entrepreneurs. Once BMW rolls out its electric 3 series to compete with the model 3 damn boi. But cmon.

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Looks like BMW will start with pure electric 3-door Mini first in 2019.

http://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1026393/3door-mini-will-go-electric-in-2019/

chiefneil · Jul 28, 2017

Seems like a reasonable option for 2-car families that have a separate road-trip vehicle. We have an X5 we usually use for roadtrips, but we do sometimes take the 335i when we're traveling light, so a pure electric vehicle wouldn't work for us.

The entry-luxury sporty compact sedan space is very crowded and mature though. Seems unlikely that Tesla would "kill" any of the major players (A4, C-class, 3-series) with their very first effort. Especially when you consider that Lexus and Cadillac have been unsuccessfully knocking at that door for about a decade now.

anotheran · Jul 28, 2017

When a sub 3.5 sec 0-60 arrives in the cpo market for sub 40k, its over for the bmw 3 series

181562 · Jul 28, 2017

The problem with these 0-60 times is the battery cannot sustain such hard acceleration. The Model S may be the fastest 0-60 car but it can't sustain it.

FCBayernFTW · Jul 28, 2017

I don't think the Model 3 is even a direct competitor

That being said, the idea of the car is quite enticing next time around

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Mark in NoVA · Jul 28, 2017

FCBayern///M4 said:
I don't think the Model 3 is even a direct competitor

That being said, the idea of the car is quite enticing next time around

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk

I agree on both counts.

I also think that not everyone has the same expectation for driving range as California, Colorado, Texas, rural Virginia, etc. There are a LOT of Teslas on the road in the DC area and I suspect most of those drive less than 50 miles per day. The close in suburbs have charging infrastructure, and even out in the hinterlands where I live there are superchargers (not horribly convenient location for locals, but they're here).

Once they work the bugs out and we see what a reasonably equipped car will really cost, it might be interesting...

PK2348 · Jul 28, 2017

In a heart beat

Mykatie · Jul 28, 2017

Iv'e been looking for charging places. I just don't see many. I saw one and it was in a parking lot. Clearly identified as such. Sign said reserved spot for electric vehicle. It did not matter what the sign said. The spot was up front and there was no access to it because of the gasoline powered vehicles all parked there. With the limited range and lack of charge stations I see it as a local to the store or out to dinner ride only at this time.

Mykatie · Jul 28, 2017

Lets say there are charging stations everywhere. How long is a typical charge?

181562 · Jul 28, 2017

I think Super Chargers are supposed to charge in 30 minutes.

mr_clueless · Jul 29, 2017

It's probably a great "around town" car. Because of range anxiety, I would probably stay away from trips where the round trip was going to be any more than 100-120 miles.

It cannot be one's only car, unless one is planning to rent a car for long distance drives.

namelessman · Jul 29, 2017

At 215-mile range for base Model 3 at 50% cost of Model S, the allure can be strong to some customers even as only car.

mr_clueless · Jul 29, 2017

MT is all praise for the car's handling.
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

What's blanching, though, is the car's ride and handling. If anybody was expecting a typical boring electric sedan here, nope. The ride is Alfa Giulia (maybe even Quadrifoglio)***8211;firm, and quickly, I'm carving Stunt Road like a Sochi Olympics giant slalomer, micrometering my swipes at the apexes.
...
Nearly-nil body roll? Magic, I'm telling you. Magic.
...
At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven't encountered before. By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison.

Now they have me salivating. These are things that may well make it a 3 series killer. Except I don't think you can lease one, so BMW is safe. For now.

namelessman · Jul 29, 2017

mr_clueless said:
MT is all praise for the car's handling.
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

Now they have me salivating. These are things that may well make it a 3 series killer. Except I don't think you can lease one, so BMW is safe. For now.

Wow it is indeed enticing.

The news said 50 cars were produced so far, with 30 delivered to Tesla employees and VIP customers, and 20 others will be for product qual.

Maybe there will be a demo car at the factory store this weekend, if so festers will be informed!

rogersmj · Jul 29, 2017

The early impressions from Motor Trend and the like are very positive. Sounds like the car has a great driving feel -- handles great, the steering has some feel, and of course they're quick.

No one's going to buy one of those instead of an M3, but I bet plenty of people will get one of these instead of a 330i or an A4. And at the entry price point, high-end Accord/Camry buyers could reach for one as well.

Gotta give Tesla kudos for making it happen. They're not perfect but it's amazing what they've accomplished. Just like Apple...there were smartphones before the iPhone, but they all kinda sucked. Tesla figured out how to make electric cars interesting and desirable.

sonofBJ · Jul 29, 2017

namelessman said:
Will prospective F30 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 instead?

It goes head to head with a Toyota and a Chevy. It's a cheap car for people who were concerned about gas prices which were very high two years ago. Not sure who it is for now. If it's anything, it's a Prius killer.

namelessman · Jul 29, 2017

Good point. At that price point for base model(that some probably will be OK with anyway) and 215-mile range, the Prius seems to be somewhat redundant.

bmwexpat · Jul 29, 2017

To go back to the OP's original question is the model 3 a 3- series killer.....

Absolutely not - First of all annual global sales of the 3 series in the 3 major markets of US, Europe, & China is north of 350,000 units. These are units volume that Tesla can only dream about and will likely never achieve.

While the model 3 is a step forward in EV technology, it's very unclear how the marketplace will actually embrace it. Other than the 30 vehicles delivered yesterday and some carefully crafted articles few people have actually seen the car and voted with their actual dollars.

Yes, Tesla now has 500,000"reservations" for the model 3 but like a lot of things with Tesla there is a lot of smoke and mirrors. The very first smoke and mirrors items is the $35,000 price. If you go on the Tesla website for the model 3 there is no real information. Ok, I'd like to buy one and what about options, again no information. The only option you have is to sign up and put down a $1000 deposit. In doing some research, it looks like a model 3 with the more desirable options is not a $35K car but a $58,000 car and possibly tilting just over $60K. Hardly the "peoples"car it was intended to be.

I would speculate that the drop out rate for the reservations is going to be in the in the 60-70% range or higher. A lot of people will be shocked at what the true cost of a model 3 really is when it comes time to put actual dollars down.

jjrandorin · Jul 29, 2017

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, with the exception of how many people are going to drop out of line because of the price. I dont think its going to be that high, simply because tesla has managed to acquire an almost "apple like" following. MANY of the people who have reservations for these are not necessarily "joe the plumber" per se. They are well heeled people looking for a second car (or third family car).

I DO agree that at least in the first year, this is NOT a 35k car. I would imagine that "many" people who are ordering these will load up on the options, and we dont know what those will cost yet. I suspect that these cars will have 10k or options on them at least, with some having 15k so I think it will be closer to 50k range (solid 3 series pricing).

To answer OPs question, my opinion on is this a 3 series killer, is this " Not for MY generation of drivers (as in age), but possible that tesla could absolutely be the "BMW" for the millenial crowd.

I am interested in one, but I would not have one as my only car ( even in a 2 car household where my wife and I both have cars ). I might consider it as a 3 car for 2 people household, as my commuter car to work. I think it would be great in that instance, personally, and my commute is between 35-40 miles each way, depending on which roads I take. 80 miles round trip. Well within spec of mileage, even for me with range anxiety.

I dont see how they save me any money over gas at this point, but with the gas hikes coming in california starting next year, and our already higher than almost everyone else prices, I could see that equation making more sense.. especially since I fall into the category of "solar user" as well. Even with solar power (mine is a lease) there is little savings over current gas pricing... but if gas goes back to 4+ dollars a gallon, then maybe I get some savings.

So... No its not a model 3 killer for most of the people that the model 3 are aimed at right now, but in 10 years? Maybe so, as we all get older and the generation that doesnt really care much about cars but loves technology gets even more buying power.

Mykatie · Jul 29, 2017

This would be VERY impressive. Now we have yet to get a confirmation of the Model 3's battery pack options (hopefully later today), but if we were to speculate about a 60 kWh and a 75 kWh options, it would result in ranges of ~253 miles and ~316 miles respectively. https://electrek.co/2017/07/28/tesla-accidentally-reveals-model-3-efficiency-hinting-at-impressive-range/

Mykatie · Jul 29, 2017

"The federal electric car tax credit is only available in the year that you put the car in service, and you can***8217;t carry the credit from year-to-year. It will only pay for any federal tax you owe, so if you are only required to pay $3,000 of federal income tax for the tax year in which you purchased the car, you can only take a $3,000 credit. This vehicle is eligible for $7,500 tax credit." So...If I paid $7,500 in taxes throughout the year I would get a refund on that when I file? Or is it not that simple?

Mark in NoVA · Jul 30, 2017

Mykatie said:
"The federal electric car tax credit is only available in the year that you put the car in service, and you can't carry the credit from year-to-year. It will only pay for any federal tax you owe, so if you are only required to pay $3,000 of federal income tax for the tax year in which you purchased the car, you can only take a $3,000 credit. This vehicle is eligible for $7,500 tax credit." So...If I paid $7,500 in taxes throughout the year I would get a refund on that when I file? Or is it not that simple?

It's not that simple.

If the calculated tax on line 44 of your 1040 is greater than $7500, you'll get a $7500 credit on taxes. If not, the credit will offset your taxes (line 44) and increase any refund or decrease taxes owed. It's the actual tax calculation, not your withholding.

Although I find it hard to fathom that anyone who could buy a Tesla wouldn't pay $7500 in federal income tax.

SSubZero · Jul 29, 2017

The Model 3 is going to be cool, I'm already seeing press teasers about the interior not having any gauges and the reviewer couldn't find where the air vents in the front are and other unusual car things. I'm not a fan of "1.0" cars, and Tesla's track record with it's initial designs are less than stellar. The 2017 Model 3 I don't want. The 2021 model, well, who knows..

I don't think the Model 3 is the issue though. The car itself is going to be a catalyst. It's going to get the other car makers to take electric cars seriously, and stop with this token i3/Bolt/Leaf nonsense. It's the IBM PC of it's market. It's destined to be overrun by knockoffs that are simply better designed and made. 30 years from now we'll remember the Model 3 as being a big deal in electric car history, but only collectors will still own any in good condition.

FCBayernFTW · Jul 29, 2017

Unfortunately for Tesla, Im not sure they can push the volume of the big three. They're waiting to see how it goes.. and if they see a viable market, I think Tesla will have a real fight on their hands.

I subscribe to the logic of waiting until the 2nd gen. I think it will be better. I'll certainly shop Tesla when the time comes. But by then BMW or Audi may have an entry into that market as well.

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alex2364 · Jul 29, 2017

Only reason for me to consider a Tesla is when it starts driving by itself and I can sleep in the back seat. Until then I see no benefits.

namelessman · Jul 29, 2017

Ok, the factory store said Model 3 won't hit showroom until Dec. Test drive will only be available for those with reservation# and need to configure the purchase.

SSubZero · Jul 30, 2017

Yeah I don't expect to see one in a showroom anytime soon. Every one they are pumping out of the factory is already sold. They don't even need to advertise or market the thing now, they have enough pre-orders to fill to last them for *years*. Why bother trying to sell a car to someone that you can't actually deliver to until like 2020?

I'd hope to at least see a mockup of the body so I can identify them. I live in "Tesla country" (about 15 minutes from NUMI) and even here, the showrooms and dealers simply have NOTHING on the Model 3 at all.

listerone · Jul 29, 2017

My "d" gets an *actual* 53MPG on the highway and has a highway range of 700+ miles.And when a "recharge" is needed it can be done in about 4 minutes at any one of about 30,000 "recharging" stations from coast-to-coast.

It'll be a snowy day in July before I go electric.

dromader · Jul 29, 2017

I toot the plunge to model S

I rarely post but I had to

... I was a skeptic then 2 months ago I tool the plunge "parked" my 340xi and got a Tesla Model S. I'm not joking my BMW is literally parked and I'm not planning to drive it soon and 2 things are responsible for that 1) tesla's acceleration is sick roller-coaster like 2) not stopping for gas amazing. I'm lucky I have a service center 5 miles from my house so if I have issues is easy. Model 3 will be even better than the S, unfortunately I had no patience so I got the S but my wife's next car is a 3. My suggestion, go for a test drive then decide!

namelessman · Jul 29, 2017

dromader said:
I rarely post but I had to ... I was a skeptic then 2 months ago I tool the plunge "parked" my 340xi and got a Tesla Model S. I'm not joking my BMW is literally parked and I'm not planning to drive it soon and 2 things are responsible for that 1) tesla's acceleration is sick roller-coaster like 2) not stopping for gas amazing. I'm lucky I have a service center 5 miles from my house so if I have issues is easy. Model 3 will be even better than the S, unfortunately I had no patience so I got the S but my wife's next car is a 3. My suggestion, go for a test drive then decide!

Good to hear a F30 owner's experience with Tesla.:thumbup:

To me the time to get to gas pumps and keep abreast of BMW's kinks and oddities(e.g. recalls, ELWs, emission warranties, most frequent failures, etc, etc) matter, so if there is a car that requires minimal maintenance/repair and no pump time, it will be of value to me.

The Model S is a bit big, and not quite $60k+ quality to me. At $35k base, the Model 3, even as bare bone go-cart with enough safety + tech + handling + ease of operations will be of interest to me.

Obviously having a good service network, and staying in business also matter.

My usual routes are close to multiple service centers and factory(for factory delivery and tour), so the service experience should be similar to other makes.

bimmerbingo · Jul 30, 2017

Give me a high-end Tesla and I'll trade/sell it for a sports gasoline powered vehicle (M, AMG, F-Type.) etc in a heartbeat!!!

eazy · Jul 30, 2017

I hear people say that electric cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE cars yet the maintenance package for a Tesla is a lot more than Audi's maintenance package.
https://www.audiusa.com/content/dam/audiusa/Documents/AudiCare_12_Brochure_Combined_j2.pdf
https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla-nodel-s-x-maintenance-plans/

CALWATERBOY DUE · Jul 30, 2017

OK -- Right off the bat I see A/C Desiccant Bag Replacement.

¡Hijole! No wonder they expensive.

Dio///M · Jul 30, 2017

Just FYI

The base version starts from $35,000. This gets an estimated range of 220 miles, does 0-60mph in 5.6s and tops out at 130mph. It’ll ‘supercharge’ to 130 miles of range in 30 minutes, or 30 miles of range per hour on a home charger.

The second version is dubbed ‘Long Range’, and is a $9,000 option over the base car’s $35k (so $44k in total).The battery now gives 310 miles of range, does 0-60mph in 5.1s and tops out at 140mph.

Spend $5,000 on the Premium upgrade pack, and you get heated, 12-way adjustable seats, wood detailing, a ‘premium’ audio setup (surround, sub, tweeters etc), a tinted glass roof, LED fogs, and a covered centre console.

Another $5,000 gets you Enhanced Autopilot, that matches traffic speed, keeps you in your lane, changes lanes, goes from one motorway to the next, leaves the motorway and parks at your destination. Add $3k to this $5k and you get full self-driving capability, that requires “no action by the person in the driver’s seat”.

jjrandorin · Jul 30, 2017

Dio///M said:
Just FYI

The base version starts from $35,000. This gets an estimated range of 220 miles, does 0-60mph in 5.6s and tops out at 130mph. It'll 'supercharge' to 130 miles of range in 30 minutes, or 30 miles of range per hour on a home charger.

The second version is dubbed 'Long Range', and is a $9,000 option over the base car's $35k (so $44k in total).The battery now gives 310 miles of range, does 0-60mph in 5.1s and tops out at 140mph.

Spend $5,000 on the Premium upgrade pack, and you get heated, 12-way adjustable seats, wood detailing, a 'premium' audio setup (surround, sub, tweeters etc), a tinted glass roof, LED fogs, and a covered centre console.

Another $5,000 gets you Enhanced Autopilot, that matches traffic speed, keeps you in your lane, changes lanes, goes from one motorway to the next, leaves the motorway and parks at your destination. Add $3k to this $5k and you get full self-driving capability, that requires "no action by the person in the driver's seat".

Thanks for pulling together the option costs :thumbup:

I wonder how many people know that the range quoted is given a certain speed? A few years ago I was looking into Model S and range. Tesla had a range estimator in their website. The stated range was at like 55 MPH (which no one drives on an open freeway in my area). As I moved the speed up, the mileage went down, and it would not let me slide the MPH past 70. The average speed on Interstate 15 by my home (non rush hour) is 80 MPH. The actual posted speed limit is 70 MPH and, on average, people drive about 10 MPH over. Going "fast" on this stretch of road is 90.

So, the 300 mile range was more like 150 at speeds around 80 MPH, and I always think of those numbers like EPA estimates... so I was guessing that if I had a 300 Mile range tesla model S, I would get somewhere around 120-140 miles of actual round trip range at the normal speeds I drive.

To combat my own range anxiety I would have to have the bigger battery version (the long ranger). It feels to me like most people would want that one, unless they live in the city (for example, northern cali on the bay side, where tesla's are almost like BMWs in ubiquity).

M40i4me · Jul 30, 2017

Since the massive do everything screen is in the middle, it would have been nice to offer a heads up display.

Model 3 starts delivery, is that really the 3-series killer?

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