I posted that late last night because I was pissed that the Brits voted to leave the E.U. and I knew that would result in BMW's stock plunging. That was the opening trading in Frankfurt. Right now BMW's ADRs are trading down 10% and the euro is down 2% against the $. The Dow is down more than 500 points (2.8%).
Anyway, this is probably not really something for this forum but I posted it. Probably shouldn't have.
Non! What it means is people who hold BMW stock are taking a beating right now because it is now at it's lowest point in the past four years! That's especially true if they're holding American ADRs because those are denominated in U.S. dollars and the underlying stock in Germany is denominated in euros. Right now the euro is still plunging against the dollar. The ADRs are trading at $24.00/share right now (3 of those equals 1 share of BMW) vs March 2015 when they traded at $43.48/share. That's a drop of 45%!
None of that is supposed to affect BMW's pricing decisions because they hedge all the major currencies around the world, especially now that they are a truly global enterprise. However, Brexit was never seriously considered before, so now BMW has to go to Plan B. Oh, wait! There is no Plan B. I guess that means they had better get to work on Plan B now.
I think it means that BMW's guidance last month that they are still expecting a slight increase in sales volume, as well as a slight improvement in profits, for all of 2016 will have to be revised downward. I don't think there is any way they can make that happen.
Yes, this could very well lead to the break up of the E.U. (I see that Cardiff voted for Remain but overall Wales voted 52.5% for Leave.)
There are obvious congenital structural problems with the E.U. but those could have been corrected short of breaking up the E.U. In retrospect June 23 will go down as a sad day in British history and not the dawn of a new Independence. Scotland will almost certainly opt out of the U.K. in order to remain in the E.U.
The polls were wrong and the bookies were wrong. They all predicted Brexit would lose 52-48 but it won 52-48. Now all those people who didn't bother to vote are complaining that nobody warned them this could happen, so they didn't bother to vote. And the weather was bad in London, which was strongly pro-Remain. All the low-information voters who voted for Brexit are now saying it was just a "protest vote" or they didn't realize what it really meant. Well, they're about to find out. They won't have to worry about losing jobs to immigrants because those jobs will now move to the E.U. I wouldn't be surprised to see BMW close its engine plant there and move Mini production to Europe. Even though the Monroney sticker on a 2016 RR Ghost shows that 80% of its content comes from Germany, it's safe to say that Rolls-Royce production will remain in Goodwood. That's a sure thing.
In the past two trading days, BMW's stock in Germany has fallen 11% but it's down 15% in the U.S. because our ADRs are denominated in dollars but the underlying stock is denominated in euros. The ADRs are now down 45% from March 2015. Some of that is due to weakness in the euro during that period. Less than two years ago the euro was $1.36 and today it's $1.10. That's a drop of 20% against the dollar. During that same period the GBP has fallen from $1.72 on July 1, 2014 to $1.33 today -- a drop of 23%.
You don't buy auto stocks for quick gains (except Telsa but you could argue they're a tech stock). You buy for capital preservation and dividends. So with the price drop you should be buying more of it.
As for the price of cars, I don't see BMW prices dropping like crazy in the US, but I could see the new Jaguar XE come in really competitive due to the weak pound.
You don't have to dig too deep to uncover some of the best tech stocks. That's because the best technology stocks have been the best performers in 2016. Last year wasn't especially a stellar year for stocks, what with the S&P 500 index throwing up a 0.7% loss. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has been one of the best performing technology stocks in 2016, up roughly 132% year-to-date, and it can be one of the best tech stocks for 2017.
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