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Resident Curmudgeon
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Discussion Starter #1
Im sure everyone has been thinking about this.... lets discuss.

BF is a USA-centric site, and we have been relatively unaffected. So far... but I think that will change.

So. What are your plans?

Im pretty remote, and dont need to generally interact with the world. So holing up for a month is not horribly difficult. Getting certain food items might be a challenge, but can easily stockpile food for a month. Prolly half way there.

More concerning is my kids- live and work in denser cities. How to keep them safe, when to 'pull the plug' and get them and there SOs 'back home'. (Perhaps even quarantining them when they arrive here?)

Am I over-reacting? Too much media hype? I hope so, but fear not.


So whatdaya think?
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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I believe that the reaction to CoViD-19 is hysterical hyperbole #FakeNews click-bait. The same demotic is being asked to evaluate the hazard of CoViD-19 as believes Round Up glyphosate is lethal and so is radiation.

The masks are a good illustration. A surgeon wears a mask to prevent drooling into his patient or snotting nose hairs. If a surgeon needs protection from a patient one wears at least a face shield or air fed PPE.

There are a couple of hundred viruses that cause Common Cold. Influenza is not one, it causes 'flu'. Of the common cold viruses, half are rhinovirus that mutate change too rapidly for us to become immune or to develop a vaccine - though there is new technology on the horizon.

Of the common cold viruses, a half-dozen are coronaviruses. Recently coronaviruses have mutated out of their animal reservoirs and into exposed human populations to cause SARS and MERS in impoverished populations. SARS and MERS died out rather quickly. So I believe will CoViD-19

To protect against virus exposure; wash your hands frequently, wash them like a surgeon 30 seconds with a real soap and lots of water. Use alcohol based hand cleaner properly - lots and rub until dry. Keep your home and bathroom clean - immaculate. Use Clorox solution / sanitizing wipes properly. Cover your cough / sneeze and away from other people - aerosols are how viruses spread. Masks are virtue signaling only.
Self-quarantine preemptively - avoid crowds - and when sick. Use your sick leave that's what its for.

I am a cleaning nut. I think I understand the chemistry of 'cleaners'. My home is immaculate. Heavy housecleaning is warm-up exercise. I run an high-voltage electrostatic air filter cleaner 24/7. I keep a wash tub of generic Clorox - sodium hypochlorite - in the kitchen sink always. I keep a jar of Clorox brand wipes on the scullery counter always. I use chlorhexidine solution daily after pooping and weekly as a body wash. My influenza immunizations are up to date, as my is pneumonia. I drink huge volumes of water, working up to summer bicycling routine of about a gallon a day.

Influenza or rhinovirus or Corona virus do not kill! PNEUMONIA KILLS. Upper respiratory infections don't kill, lower respiratory infections kill.

I'm making my way to central Florida, a week and a half on tha road, at the moment in a vacation cottage on Seabrook Island, SC. It is a dirty $#!T hole. I'll be glad to be settled in a location in Florida that I can clean to my standards.
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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16,459 Posts
A bit about CoViD-19 testing, CT X-ray versus RT-PCR

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642

separately

"Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 17 (11): 1133***8211;1161. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30396-1. PMC 5666185. PMID 28843578
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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16,459 Posts
In re plans, my residence is very remote isolated with a ferryman's tariff to get there. With one 110 year old grocery, food is always 'stockpiled'. Neighbors are always swapping truck garden produce.

My only child is a registered pharmacist in a suburb of Chicago and at least as smart as I.

My experience with isolating PPE; I was a qualified radiation worker for twenty-five years with exceptional experience. My greatest career success was directing replacing a highly contaminated coolant polishing resin / filter column after a previous failed attempt by another organization that had spread contamination requiring million$$ to clean up.

I occasionally worked in highly contaminated wet and contaminated air environments, including engineering close-outs of contaminated discharge tanks and hand pumping primary shield water tanks. These required wearing redundant and waterproof air fed Anti-Contamination suits.

I was never contaminated. I am exceptionally exposed, ~3 REM WBE. Radioactive contamination is a great training device for preventing medical contamination for being promptly detectable. Clean up of radioactive spills is great training for household cleaning.

I never called an Akula a turd, maybe da***8217; ***8216;putz, but never a 50,000 ton submarine.
 

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Resident Curmudgeon
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22,208 Posts
Discussion Starter #5
I believe that the reaction to CoViD-19 is hysterical hyperbole #FakeNews click-bait. The same demotic is being asked to evaluate the hazard of CoViD-19 as believes Round Up glyphosate is lethal and so is radiation.
interesting perspective.

I think radiation CAN kill you, all a matter of dose. Prolly feel the say way about glyphosate (Dose and exposure)..in fact I was just spraying some yesterday. (Roundup,, not radiation) ;)

The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 had a lethality rate of ~1.9%. That’s in the range for covidf19, and you think this is ‘fake news’?

I fear there is a Fox News driven counter-story that is blaming the media, to create something OTHER than the administration for people to blame when this gets worse. “Don’t believe the news and shots of people dying in hospitals, blame the news media for showing it. Believe US when we say ‘it’s not that bad’. “. Anyway, I’m veering into ‘politics’ and apologize floor that transgression


It brings up a common theme Ive been thinking about a lot these last few months...the whole ‘disinformation universe’ that has taken hold. Everything from the ‘falenews’ label that is thrown around...bots and trolls propagating false stories... the massive proliferation of right *(and left) wing conspiracy theories... the wholesale rejection of science by some. (Anti Vaxxers, food supplement/alternative medicine nuts).... All of this seems designed to break people free from “the truth’.... to make our society think “I can trust A B or C, so Ill just give up and believe what I want”. And there are people that will then monetize this mistrust. Monetize or use it politically. (Did you know that Alex Jones made his fortune hawking diet supplements to mistrustful rightwingers?)

This is what Russia has become expert at. They gave up trying to control news in RUssia via censorship, and just began pumping massive disinformation campaigns into the public- the government would actually support 2, 3 4 more ‘versions’ of a story or situation, and push this into the media.... to the point where most Russians shrug, and say “Who knows?”. (Russia was at the vanguard of this effort, but it has now spread to many many countries, who are following this playbook.)

The disinformation issue isn’t political. It isn’t Trump vs Dems. Its far more dangerous.

You say you believe covid will “die out quickly” like SARS and MERS did....what data are you using? It hasn’t died out in ANY country to which it has spread...not china..not Italy..not Iran.. the list goes on. Nothing in the spread so far has duplicated those other two. At least thats my take.

Safe travels. Hope you and mlady dodge this one.
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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16,459 Posts
The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 had a lethality rate of ~1.9%. That's in the range for covidf19, and you think this is 'fake news'?
Close.

"The World Health Organization estimates that 2***8211;3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). It is estimated that approximately 30 million were killed by the flu, or about 1.7% of the world population died. Other estimates range from 17 to 55 million fatalities." P. Spreeuwenberg; et al. (1 December 2018). "Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic". American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561***8211;2567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID 30202996.

30 million have not yet been infected with CoViD-19. The CoViD-19 statistics are waay too small to give any reliable confidence. The first CoViD-19 case dates from 1 December 2019, not a hundred days of experience yet.

Yes, I think this is #FakeNews.

The President's ignorance of the mortality of influenza should be illustrative; he expressed amazement that 20,000 Americans die of influenza every year. The problem with truthiness is the mistake that all opinions are created equal as all men are. All men are created equal, naked, squalling and stupid. After that it's dog-eat-dog competition and the Devil has marked the hindermost as His own. I am pleased that Ayn Rand and Atlas Shrugged are more often being cited.
 

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Resident Curmudgeon
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22,208 Posts
Discussion Starter #7
Close.

"The World Health Organization estimates that 2***8211;3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). It is estimated that approximately 30 million were killed by the flu, or about 1.7% of the world population died. Other estimates range from 17 to 55 million fatalities." P. Spreeuwenberg; et al. (1 December 2018). "Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic". American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561***8211;2567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID 30202996.

30 million have not yet been infected with CoViD-19. The CoViD-19 statistics are waay too small to give any reliable confidence. The first CoViD-19 case dates from 1 December 2019, not a hundred days of experience yet.

Yes, I think this is #FakeNews.

The President's ignorance of the mortality of influenza should be illustrative; he expressed amazement that 20,000 Americans die of influenza every year. The problem with truthiness is the mistake that all opinions are created equal as all men are. All men are created equal, naked, squalling and stupid. After that it's dog-eat-dog competition and the Devil has marked the hindermost as His own. I am pleased that Ayn Rand and Atlas Shrugged are more often being cited.
Not knowing an accurate number is not #fakenews. Every substantive story around the mortality rate cites the uncertainty , the limited data, the early days. All stated as caveats to the guesses around % mortality... But you say this is all #fakenews??? Fake??

IMO fake news is Alex jones declaring sandy hook parents to be crisis actors...declaring Democrats are satan worshipping under cosmic pizza. Little of the mainstream content around covid Ive seen rises to the level of #fakenews. Hysterical? Sensational? Wrong? Yes- Perhaps, to some extent...but not purposely fake (FAKE!!) to achieve manipulation of the public. (I***8217;m excluding anything on Fox outside of their strict new feed, lots of spin and manipulation by their ***8216;opinion***8217; folks.)


Not picking a fight my friend, deeply disturbed with the propensity in these times to call everything fake. It seems half of this country has bought into a this FakeNews thing, it is corrosive to our democracy. And has the possibility to cost real lives if the corona thing goes poorly.
 

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I'm not really worried. We've been through too many "70%" (number pulled out of thin air) are going to die scenarios to worry about one more. Could I be wrong? Sure, but I doubt it. I'm also not travelling to China any time soon...
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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I appreciate your peaceful intent.

Here is the report of the first autopsies of CoViD-19 victims with description of the related findings and images. The journal received the paper 18 February 2020, ten days ago as I write.

Note the naming issues, that CoViD-19 is the name of the disease - Corona Virus Disease - of 2019 and not of the virus here named SARS-CoV-2. Corona Virus Disease is identified by gross symptoms in the absence of RT-PCR and/or immunohistochemical genetic identification for such tests still being established.

https://www.jto.org/article/S1556-0864(20)30132-5/pdf

Some years ago I identified an investment opportunity in the PCR reagents required to identify the Microcystin toxin in the 2011 Lake Erie Cyanobacteria outbreak. The test reagent kit included one costing $300 per microgram!!!

A favorite issue with survey statistics is the risk of corruption in the selection of data acquired. That is often avoided by use of Convenient Data, data that is acquired for another unrelated purpose. Here serendipitously the presence of CoViD-19 causative agent was identified after the data was acquired.
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 had a lethality rate of ~1.9%.
Bear in mind that even today, it's not the flu virus that kills people, it's usually the opportunistic bacterial pneumonia that catches you with your immune system's pants down.

Now think about the world of 1918, and how well equipped the health care system was to deal with millions of bacterial respiratory infections (especially in ravaged Europe in the wake of the First World War). There's your abnormally high mortality rate for an unusually infectious influenza strain.

Is it too soon to be concerned about Covid-19? Of course not.

Is it too soon to panic and start making plans to barricade yourself inside your home in North America? Yes.
 

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Resident Curmudgeon
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Discussion Starter #12
CDC Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report. CoViD-19

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6908e1-H.pdf
Interestig read.


Sobering quote:

Although these measures might not prevent widespread transmission of the virus in the United States, they are being implemented to 1) slow the spread of illness; 2) provide time to better prepare state and local health departments, health care systems, businesses, educational organizations, and the general public in the event that widespread transmission occurs; and 3) better characterize COVID-19 to guide public health recommendations and the development and deployment of medical countermeasures, including diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines
Just buying time....
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted New England Journal of Medicine Editorial.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
Breitbart said:
An editorial published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine (linked above) speculated that the coronavirus currently causing panic in world markets could turn out no worse than ***8220;a severe seasonal influenza***8221; in terms of mortality.

Citing an analysis of the available data from the outbreak in China, the authors note that there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the fatality rate is 2% at most, and could be ***8220;considerably less than 1%.***8221;

Those who have died have been elderly or were already suffering from another illness ***8212; as with ordinary flu. The underlying data suggest that the symptoms varies, and fewer than one in six of the cases reported were ***8220;severe.***8221;

The authors note that coronavirus looks to be much less severe than other recent outbreaks of respiratory illnesses:

[T]he overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

The vast majority of patients recover, and among those who are hospitalized, the median stay thus far is 12 days.

Coronavirus, they note, does spread easily, and the average infected person has infected two other people. That means the U.S. should expect the illness to gain a ***8220;foothold.***8221; But they note travel restrictions on China (imposed by President Donald Trump over the objections of some critics) ***8220;may have helped slow the spread of the virus.***8221;
 

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Nuclear engineer
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Here's a tracker: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
The current mortality rate is 3.4%

Here's an interesting podcast: https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/episodes/on-the-media-black-swans

This appears to be a BSL-3 vermin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level

There's a view that it's more contagious than SARS:
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

And of course there is a political dimension to this:
In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government***8217;s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
 

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Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 98K miles NOKIAN WR G3 12K miles
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I found the CDC ***8216;technical information system***8217; instructions for definitive identification of SARS-CoV-2, the disease causing virus. It is 42 pages long and makes frequent reference to other laboratory procedures.

The comparison / contrast to NewTIS for our BMW***8217;s is illustrative of the need to be able to follow technical directions to avoid corruption of information unintended consequences.
 

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The King of Common Sense
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Symptoms are mild if you have a normal immune system. I live in a city of about 130K people, but interact very little with people (retired). So, I'm not going worry about it. I think those masks are ineffective in keeping the virus out of your nose. More important to me is I have cash to dump into the stock market when I think it is recovering. So, no thinking of C8 Corvette at this time. :)
 

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Resident Curmudgeon
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Discussion Starter #18
Symptoms are mild if you have a normal immune system. I live in a city of about 130K people, but interact very little with people (retired). So, I'm not going worry about it. I think those masks are ineffective in keeping the virus out of your nose. More important to me is I have cash to dump into the stock market when I think it is recovering. So, no thinking of C8 Corvette at this time. :)
I’m not sure this is completely accurate...

Yes, reports are that the immune compromised are at higher risk of death...but the inverse is no necessarily true, that it will be mild if you have a normal immune system.
 

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Bear in mind that even today, it's not the flu virus that kills people, it's usually the opportunistic bacterial pneumonia that catches you with your immune system's pants down.
My understanding is that pneumonia associated with COVID-19(the disease) can be directly caused by SARS-COV-2(the virus). In other words, it causes viral pneumonia, not bacterial.

Specifically SARS-COV-2 has receptors(corona) that are genetically mutated(or manually modified?!?) to fool human cells accepting the virus. The cells that are susceptible are those in pulmonary alveolus, hence it is a lower respiratory disease, versus getting through skins and into blood vessels.

It is true that weakened immune system can also lead to bacterial pneumonia, which can be treated by antibiotics and/or prevented by vaccines.
 

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