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CPO i3, when to buy?

1102 Views 10 Replies 6 Participants Last post by  zmt
Hey everyone,

I'm in the market for an i3, and I've been looking at CPO cars because there seems to be a glut of inventory (especially out west) and the financing rates are attractive. The extra warranty doesn't hurt either. I have a few questions for anyone that might have more info on the current and future market than I do though. FWIW, I'm in TX so leasing a new i3 is still a pretty terrible proposition even taking into consideration the likely continued depreciation on used/CPO cars.

question time!

1.) From what I've seen, cars in > cars out by a large margin lately, so how motivated are dealers to move on prices? I've seen cars on the lots for 200+ days now so I guess the short answer is not *that* motivated. I'm at a bit of a disadvantage as I'll be spending $6-800 or so getting a car out to me, so that doesn't help.

2.) Does anyone know what the Nov/end of year incentives look like on CPO i3s? I've seen 0%- 0.9% for financing, which is nice but I don't mind paying cash if that goes away. I'm wondering if anyone knows if BMW will extend the corp/fleet rebate to the general public to help move these, if so I can bide my time.

3.) What do auction values look like at this point? I'm not married to a CPO car, but local, non-certified examples are both thin on the ground and pretty expensive (it's still a somewhat rare car here). I'd like to know my position when bargaining with the local dealers though, aside from relieving them of a car they've had for 5+ months.

4.) Where's the bottom? will 2014s see sub 10k purchase prices for optioned models in 12 months? I know this is all speculation, but I'm curious to see what everyone thinks.

For anyone curious, I'm looking for a giga or tera car with parking and tech. Miles and color aren't super important but ideally sub 30k.
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We sell a TON of CPO i3s. All over the country and world. For a year now, the price has been around $18k-$24k. As I continue to get i3 inventory, I feel that will continue to be the sweet spot. I am buying as many as I can and at one point, controlled the market in the PNW purely based on the fact I had them all!

You can pay cash. It’s not about the money. It’s about finding the right one at a fair price. If you see the perfect one CPO for around $20k-$22k, pull the trigger. If you want to settle (or get very lucky) wait until you find one from a dealer who need to move it at $18k.


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I have some available as well. PM if interested.

Thank you,
Greg :thumbup:
We can't ever predict what BMW will do relative to rates and incentives. As you know from being on the 'Fest, that's a month to month proposition (even when they say it's a 2-month program, they reserve the right to change at the beginning of month 2.)

I wouldn't hold out if you see a 2014 that fits the bill. Most of the 2014s were two-year leases. We're getting through those pretty quickly.

We CAs aren't going to get into the details of auction values, but it's safe to say that $50,000 MSRP 2015s are trading/wholesaling for the mid-teens.

As you stated, you're not that motivated, so common sense says that prices will go down over the next couple months. What you risk are changes in rates and incentives (low) and i3s that could work for you (high).

Bear in mind that the longer an i3 is in stock, the less price flexibility you will get. They've probably already reduced it down to cost or under. While they prefer a retail client, they could just wholesale it away (if they can find a buyer.)

It's always best to find what you want, when you want to buy it, and negotiate the crap out of it.

MJB

Hey everyone,

I'm in the market for an i3, and I've been looking at CPO cars because there seems to be a glut of inventory (especially out west) and the financing rates are attractive. The extra warranty doesn't hurt either. I have a few questions for anyone that might have more info on the current and future market than I do though. FWIW, I'm in TX so leasing a new i3 is still a pretty terrible proposition even taking into consideration the likely continued depreciation on used/CPO cars.

question time!

1.) From what I've seen, cars in > cars out by a large margin lately, so how motivated are dealers to move on prices? I've seen cars on the lots for 200+ days now so I guess the short answer is not *that* motivated. I'm at a bit of a disadvantage as I'll be spending $6-800 or so getting a car out to me, so that doesn't help.

2.) Does anyone know what the Nov/end of year incentives look like on CPO i3s? I've seen 0%- 0.9% for financing, which is nice but I don't mind paying cash if that goes away. I'm wondering if anyone knows if BMW will extend the corp/fleet rebate to the general public to help move these, if so I can bide my time.

3.) What do auction values look like at this point? I'm not married to a CPO car, but local, non-certified examples are both thin on the ground and pretty expensive (it's still a somewhat rare car here). I'd like to know my position when bargaining with the local dealers though, aside from relieving them of a car they've had for 5+ months.

4.) Where's the bottom? will 2014s see sub 10k purchase prices for optioned models in 12 months? I know this is all speculation, but I'm curious to see what everyone thinks.

For anyone curious, I'm looking for a giga or tera car with parking and tech. Miles and color aren't super important but ideally sub 30k.
Yeah, I'm definitely not waiting just to wait on principle. I was spitballing and thinking that if I'm $500 apart from making a deal (just as a hypothetical) and someone knew that BMW was gonna support CPO sales with some cash next month, I could sit patiently and wait for the calendar to roll over, no biggie. I'm actively pursuing several cars now, just waiting for the right deal to materialize.

We can't ever predict what BMW will do relative to rates and incentives. As you know from being on the 'Fest, that's a month to month proposition (even when they say it's a 2-month program, they reserve the right to change at the beginning of month 2.)

I wouldn't hold out if you see a 2014 that fits the bill. Most of the 2014s were two-year leases. We're getting through those pretty quickly.
We CAs aren't going to get into the details of auction values, but it's safe to say that $50,000 MSRP 2015s are trading/wholesaling for the mid-teens.
That what I would have guessed, at least ballpark. The thing I don't get is I've been to dealers (non CPO, non franchise) that have inventory on the lots for 150+ days (mid optioned 2014s with 25k miles on average) and I offer them what seems like a fair deal when the other option is to send the car back out wholesale (I assume they'd make ~$500 or so from me and be rid of a stale vehicle). obviously I don't know what they paid for it 5+ months ago, but a lot of the dealers out here are really sticking to their guns price-wise.

It's always best to find what you want, when you want to buy it, and negotiate the crap out of it.

MJB
Definitely. I'm sitting over here all < shutupandtakemymoney.jpg > just waiting for the right deal. Thanks a lot for the info, it definitely helps!
Yeah, I'm definitely not waiting just to wait on principle. I was spitballing and thinking that if I'm $500 apart from making a deal (just as a hypothetical) and someone knew that BMW was gonna support CPO sales with some cash next month, I could sit patiently and wait for the calendar to roll over, no biggie. I'm actively pursuing several cars now, just waiting for the right deal to materialize.

We can't ever predict what BMW will do relative to rates and incentives. As you know from being on the 'Fest, that's a month to month proposition (even when they say it's a 2-month program, they reserve the right to change at the beginning of month 2.)

I wouldn't hold out if you see a 2014 that fits the bill. Most of the 2014s were two-year leases. We're getting through those pretty quickly.
We CAs aren't going to get into the details of auction values, but it's safe to say that $50,000 MSRP 2015s are trading/wholesaling for the mid-teens.
That what I would have guessed, at least ballpark. The thing I don't get is I've been to dealers (non CPO, non franchise) that have inventory on the lots for 150+ days (mid optioned 2014s with 25k miles on average) and I offer them what seems like a fair deal when the other option is to send the car back out wholesale (I assume they'd make ~$500 or so from me and be rid of a stale vehicle). obviously I don't know what they paid for it 5+ months ago, but a lot of the dealers out here are really sticking to their guns price-wise.

It's always best to find what you want, when you want to buy it, and negotiate the crap out of it.

MJB
Definitely. I'm sitting over here all < shutupandtakemymoney.jpg > just waiting for the right deal. Thanks a lot for the info, it definitely helps!
Some good replies from folks in the know. My two cents on a couple of points-

1.) From what I've seen, cars in > cars out by a large margin lately, so how motivated are dealers to move on prices? I've seen cars on the lots for 200+ days now so I guess the short answer is not *that* motivated.​

3.) What do auction values look like at this point? I'm not married to a CPO car, but local, non-certified examples are both thin on the ground and pretty expensive (it's still a somewhat rare car here). I'd like to know my position when bargaining with the local dealers though, aside from relieving them of a car they've had for 5+ months.​

If it is truly a rare car to see in TX then there is probably minimal demand. Dealers are thus used to sitting on the cars. They are also unlikely to be buying more of them at auction if there are no customers for them. The supply there is going to remain constrained and paradoxically the dealers will point to the fact there are very few available to say they are rare and thus more valuable.

4.) Where's the bottom? will 2014s see sub 10k purchase prices for optioned models in 12 months? I know this is all speculation, but I'm curious to see what everyone thinks.​

First keep in mind that in 12 months there will be almost no CPO 2014 cars left. As the other posters noted dealers are likely to dump the cars to auction long before they get to that time period.

I don't see sub-$10K on 2014's anytime soon, at least not for cars with clean titles. The 2015's are going to come and slot into the $18K-$24K bracket and that will push the 2014's down a bit but they are unlikely to drop $8K in 12 months. Even here in southern California I'm not expecting to see that. More likely you'll see 2014 i3 models from say $14K-$20K by this time next year.

Having said all that a good used i3 is a screaming deal at $20K. If you can't find something you like at the local dealers consider some of the online places that will deliver to you. Thinking of Carvana and Vroom. Whether you want to go that route depends of course on how valuable you feel the CPO tag is. Certainly with the i3 you pretty much have to take it to a BMW dealer for service which might make CPO more valuable than on a gas powered BMW.
Just wanted to say thanks for all the info so far. I have a longer post, but I guess it's waiting for mod approval?
For the record, I'd jump on this if it was available locally: https://www.autonation.com/cars/WBY...&utm_medium=1004&utm_campaign=*000001327*used
I know the sales manager at BMW of Vista...I cant promise you a deal or anything (because I dont work there), but I could refer you to him if you want as a "warm handoff", to see if you can work something out with him. Obviously would have to be delivered, and not sure if they know how to handle Texas taxes but would not hurt to ask them right?

PM me if you want me to warm handoff you to the sales manager there. Autonation is a big conglomerate, that tends to operate on the "1 price" for used cars, so its unlikely you will get much of a discount off the price they show there but I have not bought anything from BMW Vista since it was autonation.

I DO know I really like this sales manager, however.
The bigger issue is that it's ~$750 on average to get a car delivered from out there, and I'd really like to stay under 18k OTD for a loaded 2014 (TTL here would be ~$1200 or so on a $17k purchase price). I can't do that if I have to pay shipping and that's a lot for a dealer to eat. A car that's very similarly specced just popped up locally, but it's $2k more right now. I'm trying to start a dialogue with a sales guy here to see what if anything they'd be willing to do for me. I prefer the color of the CA car and I'd rather have the 19s on it vs the local car's 20s, but otherwise it's a wash.

the best deal on a similar, non CPO car is $16,500 for the same spec, so the cheap financing, extra warranty, and perceived peace of mind from the CPO inspection and make-ready is a no-brainer at an additional $500.
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