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All these Tesla threads... Guys, a reality check. There is no way in the universe we live in that electric cars are going to take over any time in the next 20 years. I think people living in urban bubbles see more EVs around them and extrapolate this to the wider world, which is wrong.

I just drove across New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and saw 1 Tesla (a Model X) in the middle of a city.

The most common cars? Pickup trucks. Ford Explorers. Honda CRV. Prius. Cheap piece of sh*it cars.

I saw a handful of BMWs and Mercs. No Porsches.

The worst drivers? Lifted pickups.

Until such time as battery tech changes that people can drive 400 miles, charge in 2 minutes within 30 miles of any location, as conveniently as gasoline, in a car that costs $25K... the EV revolution is ... just... not... going... to... happen.

When the day comes that I drive 4000 miles and see Teslas and EVs left and right, then sure, we can start talking about the end of the ICE. Until then, dinosaurs rule. So stop with the end-of-the-ICE nonsense.
 

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Yeah, those in the north east and California don't realize how different the rest of the country is.

A usually see a couple of Tesla's a day, even here in Bubbaville. I saw one Christmas Day, tied up to a charger in an office/retail complex.

I had to endure sitting next to a Tesla cult member at a wedding reception. He was telling me how easy it was to take a long trip in a Tesla, using the app to find a charging station, and it only takes a couple of hours to charge. Yeah, right. I told him I refuel anywhere I want, every 450 miles, in about twelve minutes, and six of those minutes are me taking a piss and grabbing some Hostess Ding Dong's for the road. I then told him that 100k miles of my gas is still less than the cost of his upcoming battery replacement.
 

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All these Tesla threads... Guys, a reality check. There is no way in the universe we live in that electric cars are going to take over any time in the next 20 years. I think people living in urban bubbles see more EVs around them and extrapolate this to the wider world, which is wrong.

I just drove across New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and saw 1 Tesla (a Model X) in the middle of a city.

The most common cars? Pickup trucks. Ford Explorers. Honda CRV. Prius. Cheap piece of sh*it cars.

I saw a handful of BMWs and Mercs. No Porsches.

The worst drivers? Lifted pickups.

Until such time as battery tech changes that people can drive 400 miles, charge in 2 minutes within 30 miles of any location, as conveniently as gasoline, in a car that costs $25K... the EV revolution is ... just... not... going... to... happen.

When the day comes that I drive 4000 miles and see Teslas and EVs left and right, then sure, we can start talking about the end of the ICE. Until then, dinosaurs rule. So stop with the end-of-the-ICE nonsense.
Maybe not in that area of the USA, and not now. Agreed, the affordable variant of the EV cars doesn't have the range or spread of the recharge network to compete with the older and established technology.
I live elsewhere, in the greater Toronto area, and there isn't a day i dont see an ev car, either on the hwy or in town.
Looking outside my work office, there is one parked beside a Chevy. We also have paid chargers at work.
Most millennials i know are considering an ev as their next car. Government tax credits for such vehicles are being phased out in both usa and Canada. So they're expensive.
Will take a while for sure for an overhaul
 

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A usually see a couple of Tesla's a day, even here in Bubbaville. I saw one Christmas Day, tied up to a charger in an office/retail complex.
We've been in Central and South Florida most of this month. At the shopping malls in both places, there have been about 6 spaces with none open for charging. Over the couple of thousand miles so far, I would put my sightings at just under 2 dozen.

In other news, my own brother is hanging up the keys to his Merc for a Tesla. He's in S. Florida as well.

As for the evolution of the automotive platform, I would support a modular approach to the vehicle with the power train developed by the company who does it best, the consumer-selected suspension type by another, and the sheet metal/appearance by yet others. We already see a lot of cross-manufacturer development like this, so it seems like a natural evolution. This point of evolution to take place right before no one cares what the thing looks like as long as it propels them. The youth of today will drive this by their demand, I expect.

Having multiple companies develop electric drive trains seems like a huge waste of resources. Everyone needs the core, so the very best should rise out of that demand. The rest is just preference and window dressings.
 

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Owners of luxury cars that can afford to drop $100K for a 2nd or 3rd car that can't do road trips is a niche market.

I drive around the city and see tens of thousands of cars parked on the street; can't replace those with EVs. Nowhere to charge them.

My point is, when the common masses of people choose to buy EVs, then that's the benchmark.
 

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Owners of luxury cars that can afford to drop $100K for a 2nd or 3rd car that can't do road trips is a niche market.

I drive around the city and see tens of thousands of cars parked on the street; can't replace those with EVs. Nowhere to charge them.

My point is, when the common masses of people choose to buy EVs, then that's the benchmark.
A relative of mine has done extremely well in life, and just bought a Tesla. He's fortunate that his beach house is only about 200 miles from his city house. So, he has charging stations at both houses, and can go from his city house to his beach house on a single charge. So... obviously... electric cars are perfectly practical for everybody! Whoopie! Everybody has a beach house within 200 miles of their city house... right?
 

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Owners of luxury cars that can afford to drop $100K for a 2nd or 3rd car that can't do road trips is a niche market.

I drive around the city and see tens of thousands of cars parked on the street; can't replace those with EVs. Nowhere to charge them.

My point is, when the common masses of people choose to buy EVs, then that's the benchmark.
Infrastructure is in development and will grow based on demand which is growing quickly. Try to remember 5 years ago. At that time even in LA and SF the EV infrastructure was minimal. To be fair the Bay Area was more developed. Now it's easy to charge an EV. Even in Detroit where I live many new retail and commercial locations were built with EV charging in mind. Tesla lists 5-6 charging stations here as well.

As far as road trips, if you look at a newer Tesla Supercharger location map, in many parts of the country these are viable. I could drive from Detroit to Miami without issue. I'm sure there are areas that are not as well equipped like the Dakota's, Nebraska and Montana but most of the country is well covered.
 

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I live in Northern Illinois and see a handful of Teslas here and there. I think that has a lot to do with being close to Chicago and they're more popular in Metropolitan areas, whereas when I drive out to the country I don't think I've even seen one. Although I read an article recently stating that the resale values of Teslas is far higher than resale values of other electric vehicles and also gas powered vehicles. This could be a factor in future Tesla purchases when prices become more affordable for the average American. Autolist conducts the study here: https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/tesla-model-x-model-s-depreciation
 

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We've been in Central and South Florida most of this month. At the shopping malls in both places, there have been about 6 spaces with none open for charging. Over the couple of thousand miles so far, I would put my sightings at just under 2 dozen.
More travel within S. Florida today. I can recall around 7 or 8 Teslas and a couple other EVs. One I cannot recall. I had no idea the manufacturer was even doing EVs. Kia? Maybe? Or Hyundai? I dunno. It wasn't a Volt. Those have been around awhile.

Anyway, while I was looking around for directions on Google maps, I was surprised to see a charging station noted within. I included a snip here.

 

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In October I drove from Chicago to Houston (2,500 miles round trip) and I noticed the same, no Teslas on the open road. I love the idea of owning an electric vehicle...one day, when I can drive 400-500 miles in a single charge and only have to wait no more than 30 minutes for a full charge, until then I'll keep using ICE vehicles.
 

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I flew down to California 2 weeks ago to visit family in San Diego, I normally land at LAX and get a rental car because it’s a lot cheaper and I don’t mind the 2.5 hour drive to San Diego. I saw A LOT of Tesla cars. I saw stuck on the freeway in typical LA traffic and 3 were in plain sight. I also saw a Maserati Quattroporte in its natural habitat (on a flatbed) and even a Fisker Karma!!

I drove down from my place here in Canada all the way to Arizona 3 months ago and the most common car I saw was the Mini. But I believe there was some convention going on because they all had random plates. There was just a swarm of them travelling in groups. We stopped at some rural New Mexico town overnight and the small hotel we stayed at, there were 7 Minis parked. 3 of which had Canadian plates and one had New York plates. No Tesla’s during the trip tho apart from the 2 in Arizona.

In Arizona itself the area we were at (Scottsdale) had a lot of BMWs. I took mine to the dealer there for oil change and they were amazed that it was an xDrive coupe model. The service advisor said he hasn’t seen one before. It’s available as an option there but no one ever gets one.


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I flew down to California 2 weeks ago to visit family in San Diego, I normally land at LAX and get a rental car because it’s a lot cheaper and I don’t mind the 2.5 hour drive to San Diego. I saw A LOT of Tesla cars. I saw stuck on the freeway in typical LA traffic and 3 were in plain sight. I also saw a Maserati Quattroporte in its natural habitat (on a flatbed) and even a Fisker Karma!!

I drove down from my place here in Canada all the way to Arizona 3 months ago and the most common car I saw was the Mini. But I believe there was some convention going on because they all had random plates. There was just a swarm of them travelling in groups. We stopped at some rural New Mexico town overnight and the small hotel we stayed at, there were 7 Minis parked. 3 of which had Canadian plates and one had New York plates. No Tesla’s during the trip tho apart from the 2 in Arizona.

In Arizona itself the area we were at (Scottsdale) had a lot of BMWs. I took mine to the dealer there for oil change and they were amazed that it was an xDrive coupe model. The service advisor said he hasn’t seen one before. It’s available as an option there but no one ever gets one.


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Here in Floriduh, even xDrive BMW SUV's are rare, maybe one in five.
 

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Here in Floriduh, even xDrive BMW SUV's are rare, maybe one in five.


I have a cousin from Kissimmee, FL. She drives one of the rare xDrive X3s there lol. And one of the few bright red ones.

Where I live here in Canada 90% of all BMWs are xDrive. And by all BMWs I mean including sedans and SUVs. 2WD BMW SUVs are actually not available here, xDrive comes as standard. It’s an optional extra for the cars but the dealer always stocks AWD ones. The only 2WD ones are the M// cars and maybe one 340i out of the 20+ they have. Mercedes-Benz offers no 2WD at all, all of them are 4Matic. I think BMW should sell more RWD cars, I personally wouldn’t mind a RWD car in the winter. They’re not hard to drive as long as you know how to drive and it’s a A LOT more fun. I worked on my friend’s Ford Crown Victoria last week. He just bought it from auction as it was an ex-cop car and wanted a good check up on it. It was a very snowy day and it was a BLAST to drive. Most of the customers that bring their Toyota FR-S to the dealer I work at do not have winter rubber on and the car is still manageable.


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I took pics of *some* of the EVs I saw on our trip up the FL Turnpike today. I stopped counting and taking pics of Teslas at 8 outside the thriving metropolis of Valdosta, GA. The last one was the Sport Ute version. I counted 4 Volts, more than a dozen Pirus(es?) Pri-i? Right about 700 miles.

Anyway, I am left with the familiar feeling of stories from the early history of cars. I forget the players, but I heard one story about the very first road trip where the driver asked for directions. He was sent down a road that ended at a farm. It turned out that the farmer had sent them back to the farm so his family could see an automobile. :rofl:

But I did do some looking into EV sales just to see what the trends say. This chart from https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567 is a pretty clear indicator of the trend in sales:

 

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The car critic in the Wall Street Journal published an article last week that argued that ICEs are headed out of here like a bat out of hell. Or words to that effect.
Phil Jones
 

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The car critic in the Wall Street Journal published an article last week that argued that ICEs are headed out of here like a bat out of hell. Or words to that effect.
Phil Jones
People who live and work in Manhattan and SoCAL are often oblivious of how the rest of the country, what they call "fly over country" works. A lot of people in Manhattan go their entire lives without ever driving a car.

I'd put as much faith in what the WSJ thinks about the future of cars as I would in stock tips from Patrick Bedard (weird associate editor of Car and Driver).
 

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I took pics of *some* of the EVs I saw on our trip up the FL Turnpike today. I stopped counting and taking pics of Teslas at 8 outside the thriving metropolis of Valdosta, GA. The last one was the Sport Ute version. I counted 4 Volts, more than a dozen Pirus(es?) Pri-i? Right about 700 miles.

Anyway, I am left with the familiar feeling of stories from the early history of cars. I forget the players, but I heard one story about the very first road trip where the driver asked for directions. He was sent down a road that ended at a farm. It turned out that the farmer had sent them back to the farm so his family could see an automobile. :rofl:

But I did do some looking into EV sales just to see what the trends say. This chart from https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567 is a pretty clear indicator of the trend in sales:

That graph's vertical axis is mislabeled. It should be "cars," not "thousands of cars." Total US annual auto sales in 2018 are estimated to be 17.4M. So, that puts EV's at around one percent of total vehicle sales. Take away the $7500 tax credit and it would likely be below 0.5%.
 

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That graph's vertical axis is mislabeled. It should be "cars," not "thousands of cars." Total US annual auto sales in 2018 are estimated to be 17.4M. So, that puts EV's at around one percent of total vehicle sales. Take away the $7500 tax credit and it would likely be below 0.5%.
You're missing the point which is the exponential growth of EV sales. Now look at this:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

2018 EV sales through 11 months are at 312,000 so this projects to at minimum 350,000 this year and growing.
 
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