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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Three years ago I ran the numbers for lease vs. buy, and was surprised to find that back to back leases vs. buying and holding for six years was about a wash financially. So I leased. What made it work for me were the ED purchase at X over invoice and artificially high residual.

Now I'm at the end of my lease and am running the numbers again--purchase my lease vs. a new lease. My original calculations projecting the second lease turned a bit south as prices have gone up and residuals down. I calculate about $2800 extra after three years with a 2nd lease, based on several assumptions about after tax rates of return (I would pay cash to buy, or invest the cash to lease), depreciation on the purchased car, and maintenance/repair costs after warranty. Of course, this value can swing significantly with different assumptions. Do I invest in safe interest bearing accounts with 2% return, or stocks for perhaps 7 or 8% historical return after taxes (I'm assuming 5% in my model)? Will my car depreciate 42% over three years? Will my repair and maintenance costs be $1000/year (I drive 7K miles annually)? These are my current assumptions. If I look at prices for extended maintenance and warranty, these costs are closer to $2000/year. Yikes!

I suppose there aren't enough 2007 335xi's out of warranty to get real data on this. Anybody know? HPFP's are covered, but TT's and other components are at risk. I'm thinking at only 7K miles annually I should stay under $1000/year.

From a pure $ point of view it would be optimum to drive a $1000 beater car--I do appreciate there is a dollar value for driving a car you enjoy and that is safer and more reliable.

I really like my current car, and have no compelling urge to get into a new one, which is why I can stay rational running the numbers.
 

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IntarWeb Stalker
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If you want to keep your next car for more then 3-4 years (whatever the lease terms allow) then go with a buy...if you want to keep it for 3-4 years then lease.
 

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N54
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I really like my current car, and have no compelling urge to get into a new one, which is why I can stay rational running the numbers.
If you're talking about buying new vs leasing, it can often be a wash depending on the time frame (probably more advantageous to lease if you're holding 3 or fewer years). However, buying your current car back from a dealer as a CPO should work out well depending on price: you'll get the ext warranty and you can get the ext maintenance apparently just by financing with BMWFS (financing at least $10k and paying off after 6 months) which means you'll have paid a few hundred for the maint contract (according to other 'festers).

As long as you're under warranty and have either the maint plan or know any indy shop to do the work, you should be ok (oil changes aren't a biggie, only big item on maint is probably brakes). you can post up your assumptions here, but I see no way buying your car as CPO for 3 more years and 21k miles won't be significantly less expensive than leasing a new 335
 

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Freedom isn't free!!
2018 Glacier Silver 340i M Sport
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If you're talking about buying new vs leasing, it can often be a wash depending on the time frame (probably more advantageous to lease if you're holding 3 or fewer years). However, buying your current car back from a dealer as a CPO should work out well depending on price: you'll get the ext warranty and you can get the ext maintenance apparently just by financing with BMWFS (financing at least $10k and paying off after 6 months) which means you'll have paid a few hundred for the maint contract (according to other 'festers).

As long as you're under warranty and have either the maint plan or know any indy shop to do the work, you should be ok (oil changes aren't a biggie, only big item on maint is probably brakes). you can post up your assumptions here, but I see no way buying your car as CPO for 3 more years and 21k miles won't be significantly less expensive than leasing a new 335
+1 - My thoughts exactly. The specifics of the "free" extended maintenance have a lot of variables, so you'd need to check that out closely. However, I think even without the extended maintenance you would probably come out ahead if you can DIY or have a good BMW indy mechanic. Plus you get to keep a one owner car you know everything about and that you like.
 

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Automotive Monomaniac
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If you want to keep your next car for more then 3-4 years (whatever the lease terms allow) then go with a buy...if you want to keep it for 3-4 years then lease.
+1

Lease for no more than 4 years... 3 years is ideal. Get in, and get out.

You are always under warranty and you only have to replace one set of tires.

- Mike
 

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RockStar!
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i would say lease . you get a brand new car no maintnance no headaches. even if they offer you cpo warranty it doesnt cover everything. if your amp goes bad it will run you about 1000 plus work. also figure maintnance cost . i would say lease

year maintance
oil change -$240
brakes-$500
misc parts- $150
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Well, things are getting more interesting. I got updated numbers for x over ED invoice, and factored in AWD credit for the xdrive model, and $4K eco credit for the 335d. Now leasing the 335xi is about a wash vs. buying my current car, and going with the 335d has >$2000 advantage!

I think I feel a trip to Germany coming on. And I only read positive things from owners of the 335d.
 

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Chairman of the Bored
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With super low interest rates and/or inflated residuals leasing is good right now. I've done comparisons of continually leasing vs buying and I figured ballpark it's about $60 per month more to lease for a $45-$50k BMW. The good thing about leasing is you get a new car every 3 years and don't run the risk of a precipitous drop in value like what happened in late '08. The bad thing about leasing is when the lease is up you need another car and the great deals they sometimes offer might not be available. Also, you may not drive the right number of miles. Leasing can be unbelievable if you can time it right. For example a person posted in the ask-a-dealer section he can lease an $82k BMW M3 convertible for $685 a month with no cap cost reduction for 3 years 10k. He's doing ED and max MSDs. I checked the numbers and they're right. The point about timing came into play for me when I had a leased '06 Z4 and in late '08 I could lease a 135 vert for next to nothing so I just "ate" the last 4 lease payments.
 

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Ant_e90_330I
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Always buy used! No sense in throwing away money unless you must always have a new car. If you can afford to throw away money then email me and I will give you wiring instructions to my bank account.:) For instance I purchased my CPO 06 330I/39k miles for $21k last year. I guess nobody wanted a manual.
 

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Automotive Monomaniac
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Always buy used! No sense in throwing away money unless you must always have a new car. If you can afford to throw away money then email me and I will give you wiring instructions to my bank account.:) For instance I purchased my CPO 06 330I/39k miles for $21k last year. I guess nobody wanted a manual.
Who invited the voice of reason and logic?

Welcome to the Fest! :thumbup:

- Mike
 
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