Well, IMHO, the first thing is the "drive what you want" issue.
By this, I mean, in a world where there are many choices for solid, well-sorted vehicles at every price point, those who choose BMW or other premium brands, and can afford to drive them, are choosing to drive vehicles that are far more than basic transportation. That's the joy and that's the point. I saw a Toyota Camry the other day and was impressed by the build quality, features, and style, not to mention the price point. But it wasn't anything, given the choice, I want to drive, no matter how compelling the numbers. No matter how bourgeois that sounds, and in fact is.
The point is, the choice to drive a BMW is a choice to pay more than one has to for decent, safe, reliable, solid transportation. For the joy of it.
Once that threshold is crossed, the questions of cost, and the decision matrix involved is more complex.
For example, the premium for leasing is offset by absence of warranty anxiety. One is always driving the latest and greatest and the vehicle is always new. If that ceases to be true, then why pay the premium for a BMW?
But then again, maybe a year of living without warranty makes sense, if the car has been trouble free and shows no signs of failing. Remembering, of course, that if, say the air conditioning fails, that will need to be repaired or paid for at lease end.
Were I in OP's situation (and I've been there before myself), I'd figure out what I want to drive next and go see what the dealer of that brand can do for me.
It was many years ago, but I was over mileage, I selected a different brand than what I was driving, and, about 6 months prior to lease end, I was able to slide out of my over-mileage lease and into a new car with no significant price penalty. But things are a bit different now, with dealers having narrower margins, fewer juicy conquest incentives, and, of course, with inflated residuals, most cars are worth substantially less than the residual.
Thus, the age-old advice: Figure out what you want to drive next and give a dealer the opportunity to make something work for you. They'll tell you what they can or can't do.
But lets be honest. We want it both ways -- a great lease deal and then, when we violate our part of the deal by going over mileage, we start looking for the least painful way to wiggle out and start over. I've done it before; sometimes coming out a surprised winner and sometimes paying the piper. But once I wrap my hands around the steering wheel of the next new ride and smell the new car ether, the deal is forgotten and the joy of driving what I like returns... for a price that ceases to matter... until the next time around.
So, if you can, do what makes you happy and drive what will give you joy. And pay what you have to pay to make it happen, but not a dime more than you have to!!