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Discussion Starter #3,041
P.S. The author also says, "Truth be told you can't order that exact configuration." Comparing apples and imaginary oranges.
For Tesla, exact configurations may not be present, but it is usually very close given the lack of options/packages anyway. So it can be red delicious apple versus gala apple. ;)
 

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Discussion Starter #3,042 (Edited)
:rofl:

You haven't found it because it doesn't exist and is fiction. I bought the most highly optioned Performance model, ticked every box except white seats.

Tesla gave me a refund check (that included tax as well) for one of the price drops.

I keep a spreadsheet on my out of pocket costs then and if I were to buy the car now.

The difference for me as it stands is less than $2.5k to buy the car 10 months earlier vs now. This is close to worst case scenario (would be worse if I couldn't get the full $7.5k deduction). I'm completely fine with that, and it's a far cry from $20k.
Is there a breakdown of the price of your Performance?

And your same config can be purchased for $66k out-of-pocket today, versus $68.5k that was paid 10 months ago after $7.5k fed credit and $5k performance pkg refund?

My friend did show me price quotes from Tesla stores last May/June for that $78k + $5k EAP price on Performance, it is possible there were price drops even before any Performance was delivered. :dunno:
 

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https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-3-configurator-lists-performance-at-78000-topping-at-86000-126099.html

And early Model 3 Performance is $78k + $5k EAP + $1.2k(or was it $1500?) destination(FSD was extra $3k)

That is $84.2k + 9-10% CA tax - $7.5k fed credit = $85k.

Current price on Model 3 Performance (with included AP) is $59.9k + $1.2k destination + 9-10% CA tax - $3750 = $63.46k

So it looks like my friend's assertion of $21k out-of-pocket savings/price drop is valid.
And the numbers in the article are just wrong, but obviously nothing will dissuade you from believing such rubbish, so have at it.
 

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Discussion Starter #3,044
And the numbers in the article are just wrong, but obviously nothing will dissuade you from believing such rubbish, so have at it.
Well Elon did tweet this about Performance:

"Cost of all options, wheels, paint, etc is included (apart from Autopilot). Cost is $78k ...." Oh well.
 

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Well Elon did tweet this about Performance:

"Cost of all options, wheels, paint, etc is included (apart from Autopilot). Cost is $78k ...." Oh well.
So now Elon never makes mistakes on twitter. :rolleyes: Also, it seems he didn't have a crystal ball in order to tell that the $5k performance upgrade would be refunded. You can throw around all the numbers you want, but the actual net cost is what matters, and on that, you're way out of the ballpark.

Here's a window sticker from an early Model 3 Performance model. You can tell because it shows the performance upgrade as a $5,000 option. This is the $5,000 that was later refunded. Add in $5k for enhanced autopilot and $3k for full self driving for a total of $81k minus the $5k later refunded for a net price to Tesla of $76k including destination and doc. Take off the $7,500 federal tax credit, and you're down to $68.5k. Please note that this was also with the most expensive color and interior. The image is large, so I'll just provide a link.
Link - http://i.imgur.com/FlRzLyu.jpg

If you go to tesla.com today and configure the same car with the autopilot and full self driving, the total is $68,900 without the destination and doc fee. Add in the $1,200 for D&D, and your total is $70,100. Take off the current $3,750 federal tax credit and you're down to $66,350. Please see the attached for the configuration I just ran on this on tesla.com.

So, net to net for the most expensive Model 3 you could buy back when the Performance models were first produced compared to its cost today, it is $2,150 cheaper now. Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper. You can only start to get to numbers like that by ignoring reality, specifically the facts that $5k was refunded for those who paid for the performance package and the tax credit was $3,750 higher.

P.S. Just for comparison's sake, try configuring a BMW M3 to this as closely as possible. Without the Executive Package, it comes to $76,375 before destination and doc fees, and it gives up parking distance control, parking assistant, automatic high beams, and heated rear seats relative to the Model 3. Add on the Executive package and the price goes to $82,635, but it has a head-up display, top view camera, and adaptive headlights that the Tesla doesn't have. If you want a serious autobahn or track toy, the BMW M3 is the better choice, but for pretty much everything else, I think the Model 3 has the M3 beat at a lower cost.
 

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Discussion Starter #3,049 (Edited)
That was the price quote from Tesla store back in June 2018 too, thanks for locating it!:thumbup:

The article did say the price points were moved a bit since:

base - $64k
exterior upgrade (wheels, trims, spoiler?) - $5k
interior upgrade - $1.5k
EAP - $5k
FSD - $3k
destination - $1.5k(?)

To compare to "base" Performance right now, which includes "AP" and exterior upgrade, plus interior upgrade, the equivalent price back in, say July 2018, should be $64k + $5k + $1.5k + $5k + $1.5k(dest) = $78k.

With 10% CA tax, that becomes $86k, minus $7.5k yields $79.5k, minus $5k refund yields $74.5k.

Compared to out-of-pocket of $63.5k of current Performance pricing(remember AP + exterior + interior are included), there is still a $11k difference.:rolleyes:
 

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Discussion Starter #3,050
Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper.
The $8k out-of-pocket drop on LR AWD is not just from article in post#3037, it was also complained about on popular tesla forums. The fact that your specific purchase turned out OK is not experienced by all Tesla early adopters.

And the $20k price delta on Performance did get help from $5k refund on Performance package, and another $4k-5k drop in Performance price somewhere in June/July 2018(compared to early Tesla/Musk price info), nonetheless it is still $10k+ drop in price.
 

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Discussion Starter #3,051 (Edited)
Here's a window sticker from an early Model 3 Performance model. You can tell because it shows the performance upgrade as a $5,000 option. This is the $5,000 that was later refunded. Add in $5k for enhanced autopilot and $3k for full self driving for a total of $81k minus the $5k later refunded for a net price to Tesla of $76k including destination and doc. Take off the $7,500 federal tax credit, and you're down to $68.5k. Please note that this was also with the most expensive color and interior. The image is large, so I'll just provide a link.
Link - http://i.imgur.com/FlRzLyu.jpg

If you go to tesla.com today and configure the same car with the autopilot and full self driving, the total is $68,900 without the destination and doc fee. Add in the $1,200 for D&D, and your total is $70,100. Take off the current $3,750 federal tax credit and you're down to $66,350. Please see the attached for the configuration I just ran on this on tesla.com.

So, net to net for the most expensive Model 3 you could buy back when the Performance models were first produced compared to its cost today, it is $2,150 cheaper now. Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper. You can only start to get to numbers like that by ignoring reality, specifically the facts that $5k was refunded for those who paid for the performance package and the tax credit was $3,750 higher.
The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:

1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
2. they did not configure FSDs but with EAP, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018, $81k - $3k = $78k), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, $70k - $6k = $64k).

Do note $81k and $70k are your numbers, not mine.

Now apply CA sales tax, and subtract fed credits::

In July 2018: $78k + $7.8k - $7.5k = $78.3k
In April/May 2019: $64k + $6.4k - $3.75k = $66.4k

Again, the out-of-pocket drop is $11k+, and that matched my calculation.

The key thing probably is if FSD(which is still not delivered?) is included or not, both for LR AWD and Performance comparison.

Plus the drop in MSRP already gives a $1k+ CA sales tax savings!
 

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The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:

1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
2. they did not configure FSDs but with EAP, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018, $81k - $3k = $78k), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, $70k - $6k = $64k).

Do note $81k and $70k are your numbers, not mine.

Now apply CA sales tax, and subtract fed credits::

In July 2018: $78k + $7.8k - $7.5k = $78.3k
In April/May 2019: $64k + $6.4k - $3.75k = $66.4k

Again, the out-of-pocket drop is $11k+, and that matched my calculation.

The key thing probably is if FSD(which is still not delivered?) is included or not, both for LR AWD and Performance comparison.

Plus the drop in MSRP already gives a $1k+ CA sales tax savings!
Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.
 

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Discussion Starter #3,053 (Edited)
Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.
To be fair, the clear headed Model 3 owners told me that $5000 refund also gives up free supercharging, so they said their preference is to keep supercharging, hence my number does not take that $5000 off.

Obviously nowadays there is no free supercharging(until Musk decides to spur demand again!), so the number may look different too.

OK, take that $5.5k refund off from $11.5k, so $6k out-of-pocket drop in my locales, so it is more than $2150, but less than $11k/$20k.

And it beats me how/why sales tax does not matter ....

So the truth is somewhere in between as usual!
 

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Discussion Starter #3,054
I bought a LR AWD fairly early on, with the only option being the paint. The price was $55k to Tesla and before taxes and registration. Add in the $2,000 that I paid for autopilot in March and the total is $57k. After tax credits, my total purchase cost was $44,500.

Today, the exact same configuration is $52,100. After current tax credits, my purchase cost today would be $43,350, for a savings of $1,150 versus what I paid. I think a lot more people are in a situation similar to mine than the $8k to $20k you're stating.
An inquisitive mind in our lunch crowd picked up the numbers game(or apple-to-orange) played in the above paragraphs.

1. Instead of purchasing EAP for $5k early on, say, July 2018, the AP was added in March 2019 for $2k. That is a $3k savings due to the price drop.

2. If a brand new LR AWD is ordered in April/May, there will be another $1k(or $2k?) drop since AP is standard option and is included in base MSRP.

So technically the alleged $1150 savings has extra $4k to $5k savings on top of those who paid early adopter prices in July 2018. Including the sales tax delta, the $6k to $7k savings of my previous posts is legit!

That is a great move and congrats on the extra savings!:thumbup:
 

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Discussion Starter #3,055
Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.
This is a worthwhile point to explore. From my perspective Tesla innovates in two tech fronts, first being BMS, second being FSD.

Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does. In fact, all 3 major battery suppliers(who spend billions on battery innovations) are non-US, the 4th upstart also is non-US. Tesla's main claim of fame(to me) is BMS, specifically they were first to seriously address wear leveling, plus maintain constant temp range. The core battery tech tough is not done by Tesla, instead the big 3 (and in coming years 4) non-US suppliers spend serious dough to get reliability, longevity, density improved over time. Even the cell versus pouch type trade-offs are not done by Tesla.

To be truly an innovative American company, Tesla probably should start battery R&D in-house, but frankly Tesla does not have enough cash to fund that, yet. For now, Tesla's success is benefiting lots of non-US jobs(which is what global free trade means anyway).

So how innovative is Tesla's BMS(and also battery module design and packaging)? Most Tesla fans believe they are state-of-the-art, and that is believable. The essence of BMS and packaging though do not have high enough tech moat, and plainly old school, meaning many can figure out and/or reverse engineer, and/or have been doing it in one form or another for decades in non-automotive applications. So there may not enough bleeding-edge innovation to keep Tesla way ahead for long.

On the second front of FSD(and AI), Tesla does have some tech moat, but there are also 100(or more) startups and upstarts and incumbents with various degrees of pros/cons, and financial might, chasing down the same pot of gold(plus poaching stuff left and right). More importantly AI(and FSD being one killer app) is non-trivial, and the Tesla God chip(which is out for a year now?) can become obsolete in 12+ months, so again it may not be innovative enough to help Tesla to stand head and shoulder above all others.

And being SV company, Tesla is subject to the destructive power of innovation anyway, and Tesla being 16-year-old on July 1 2019 probably is showing its age somewhat. 16-year is an eternity in SV.

Those are my thoughts on this subject. :)
 

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...

Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.

....
The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.

Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
(Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).

I really wasn't much of a Tesla fan - I kind of liked the company but that was about it. Once I bought one, and got a first-hand experience - that's when I got really impressed. It's by no means perfect - but it is very impressive. And that is when I started getting annoyed by the smear campaign against Tesla. :thumbdwn:

I fully understand - it is hard to make a man see a point if his paycheck depends on him not seeing it. But the efforts to destroy Tesla really rub me wrong - trying to kill a fantastic product, clean/sustainable future, and American production and technological lead - for narrow-minded self-interest.
 

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Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does.
Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
 

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The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.

Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
(Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).

I really wasn't much of a Tesla fan - I kind of liked the company but that was about it. Once I bought one, and got a first-hand experience - that's when I got really impressed. It's by no means perfect - but it is very impressive. And that is when I started getting annoyed by the smear campaign against Tesla. :thumbdwn:

I fully understand - it is hard to make a man see a point if his paycheck depends on him not seeing it. But the efforts to destroy Tesla really rub me wrong - trying to kill a fantastic product, clean/sustainable future, and American production and technological lead - for narrow-minded self-interest.
In addition any industry that employs professional drivers is also going to be put out of business if/when Tesla manages to perfect full self driving. There are a lot of vested interests out there that have good reason to want Tesla to fail.
 

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Discussion Starter #3,059
Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
Q4 conference calls may provide some clues to inquisitive minds(subject to interpretation as usual).

Musk's comment:

“Well, there’s really 3 things: there’s the cell, the module, and the pack. We’ll be making the module and the pack, so it’s really just a question of cell supply. We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry."

The nitpicky commentatory:

"These kinds of fundamental cell chemistry research efforts are not undertaken lightly, and involve a great deal of effort and experimentation by highly trained scientists. It might, therefore, have seemed reasonable to believe that Tesla’s advanced cell chemistry know-how is a large part of the “secret sauce” that gives the company an edge in its market-leading EVs and energy storage products. But Musk’s comment that “We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry” suggests that much of Tesla’s technological performance and cost-efficiency edge comes from its module and battery pack design, engineering, and production assembly."

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/03/all-your-cell-are-belong-to-us-any-high-energy-density-2170-will-do-for-tesla/

Tesla did file patents on battery tech, e.g.:

"Tesla also has filed patents on lithium-ion cell chemistry, such as the recent example of a patent disclosure which “includes two-additive electrolyte systems that enhance performance and lifetime of Li-ion batteries, while reducing costs from other systems that rely on more additives.”

The big 3 non-US battery suppliers have troves of IP's and patents of these battery cell techs, it is unclear if Panasonic also co-own these enhancement patents that Tesla files(one may need NDAs to get that info, and frankly won't comment on public chit-chat forums), or if these enhancement patents really are consequential enough.
 

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Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.
That is the NMC battery from Jeff Dahn.
 
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