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“Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers’ calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car — a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don’t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: “OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it… — But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models… — Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to… — Even if it involves recalling some cars? — Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla’s main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC).”


https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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“Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers’ calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car — a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don’t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: “OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it… — But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models… — Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to… — Even if it involves recalling some cars? — Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla’s main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC).”


https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/
You forgot the part where Tesla's power train did easily exceed 1,000,000 miles of operation. This testing was also completed in October of 2018 only a short time after production was started, so if a recall was needed it would not have affected very many units.

If Elon took the time to do things the way the Germans do he would be releasing a very spectacular, super reliable and very refined electric car, sometime in 2025, well after his capital was gone and his competitors had eaten his lunch.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/
 

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You forgot the part where Tesla's power train did easily exceed 1,000,000 miles of operation. This testing was also completed in October of 2018 only a short time after production was started, so if a recall was needed it would not have affected very many units.

If Elon took the time to do things the way the Germans do he would be releasing a very spectacular, super reliable and very refined electric car, sometime in 2025, well after his capital was gone and his competitors had eaten his lunch.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/
Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.

1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.

1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days
Yes, I also know how to do math.

Most ICE cars will never see anywhere near 1M miles before they are disposed of. Even high mileage drivers that put 50K miles a year need 20 years to do that.

As "trivial" as you say it is, Toyota sure ran some big ads when a few of their truck owners passed the million mile mark. How much do you think the maintenance costs on those trucks were to get to 1M miles? How many oil changes, belt changes, valve adjustments, transmission fluid, etc?

The reality is that barring some kind of manufacturing defect in a particular copy of one of Tesla's motors they are far more likely to get to 1M miles with no drama than any complicated ICE system that has thousands of moving parts.
 

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Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.

1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days
Do any manufacturers of ICE engines for regular passenger cars do such tests? If so, do you have a link? I can see doing such tests with engines for long haul semis or something similar, but why would anyone normally do such tests for passenger cars?
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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Do any manufacturers of ICE engines for regular passenger cars do such tests? If so, do you have a link? I can see doing such tests with engines for long haul semis or something similar, but why would anyone normally do such tests for passenger cars?
His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.

I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.

The only weak component on the Tesla car if you can call it weak is the battery. That won't make it to 1M miles with the original range, but some new innovations in battery technology could make that possible sooner rather than later.

Quite a lot of Model S/X in the fleet still have over 80% original range after well over 200K miles. In fact a lot of them still have around 90% original range after 6+ years of use and 100K+ miles and man of these cars are in countries like Norway where they have the added abuse of dealing with extreme temperatures.
 

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His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.

I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.

The only weak component on the Tesla car if you can call it weak is the battery. That won't make it to 1M miles with the original range, but some new innovations in battery technology could make that possible sooner rather than later.

Quite a lot of Model S/X in the fleet still have over 80% original range after well over 200K miles. In fact a lot of them still have around 90% original range after 6+ years of use and 100K+ miles and man of these cars are in countries like Norway where they have the added abuse of dealing with extreme temperatures.
Not the engine but the WHOLE CAR

"don***8217;t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters"

And this is combined testing miles. Not 1 car.
 

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Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of that but do go on.
VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.

It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.

It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.
I thought we were talking about ICE programs and how that was the standard.

Musk takes risks. As I said previously, he has an enormous incentive to take some gambles and it also demonstrates that he has a lot of confidence in his EV engineers which are considered to be some of, if not the very best, on the planet.

ICE manufacturers have almost zero incentive to take risks in their EV programs. If anything they'd be happy if they didn't need to compete in the EV space and could just continue building ICE for the next 100 yrs.
 

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His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.
I might have missed it, but the part I saw acoste post said, "German manufacturers don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters." That may very well be the case, but they're obviously not clocking up 10 million kilometers on one car or one engine; that takes a whole fleet of cars to accomplish. He also stated that, "Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a 'short time'. Specially in the lab." While that maybe theoretically possible, just by calculating time at speed; I seriously question how many passenger car ICE engines could actually accomplish this, if any.
I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.
I totally agree, since Tesla has stated that they designed the motor to last that long. I don't think I've ever heard of any passenger car manufacturer declaring that they designed their engine to last 1M miles.
The only weak component on the Tesla car if you can call it weak is the battery. That won't make it to 1M miles with the original range, but some new innovations in battery technology could make that possible sooner rather than later.

Quite a lot of Model S/X in the fleet still have over 80% original range after well over 200K miles. In fact a lot of them still have around 90% original range after 6+ years of use and 100K+ miles and man of these cars are in countries like Norway where they have the added abuse of dealing with extreme temperatures.
While the Tesla motors may last 1M miles, I don't think the rest of the car will hold up that long. There are lots of other parts, even on a Tesla, and my expectation is that most Teslas will not be worth fixing at some point well under 1M miles. My hope is that it will be the norm to get at least 200k miles out of a Model 3 without having to put big money into it for repairs, and with it still being a nice vehicle. I don't know if I'll keep my Model 3 that long, but if it does hold up that well, the resale should be excellent. :)
 

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VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.

It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.
10 million kilometers for 400 cars works out to an average of only 25,000 kilometers, or about 15,000 miles per car. It really doesn't show much with regard to long term, 100k+ miles, durability.
 

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I thought we were talking about ICE programs and how that was the standard.

Musk takes risks. As I said previously, he has an enormous incentive to take some gambles and it also demonstrates that he has a lot of confidence in his EV engineers which are considered to be some of, if not the very best, on the planet.

ICE manufacturers have almost zero incentive to take risks in their EV programs. If anything they'd be happy if they didn't need to compete in the EV space and could just continue building ICE for the next 100 yrs.
I think the competition from Tesla has forced the whole automotive industry to step up their game. In the case of the Germans, it has been an emphasis on performance. I really don't think their cars would have improved their acceleration anywhere near as much as they have in the last 5 to 8 years, if it wasn't for Teslas kicking their butts in that metric.

Pretty much all car manufacturers seem to have stepped up the development speed of various driver aids and safety systems, and also display screens and user interfaces. Without Tesla, I think this development would have been much, much slower.

The Tesla Model 3 may not be a BMW 3 series killer, although it's definitely wounded it, but Tesla has caused a paradigm shift in the entire car manufacturing industry.
 

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Discussion Starter #4,214
“Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers’ calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car — a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don’t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: “OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it… — But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models… — Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to… — Even if it involves recalling some cars? — Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla’s main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC).”


https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/
Yikes hopefully other auto manufacturers will not deviate from their proven release process just because Tesla does it.

And honest Tesla owners really need to demand Tesla not use them as experiments and guinea pigs.
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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Yikes hopefully other auto manufacturers will not deviate from their proven release process just because Tesla does it.

And honest Tesla owners really need to demand Tesla not use them as experiments and guinea pigs.
Well we don't know the details on what ICE manufacturers actually do other than some anecdotal information being provided by a highly biased individual.

My experience is consumers vote with their wallets. Tax incentives on Tesla are pretty much gone and people are still buying them because they feel they are getting a superior product for the money compared to other cars on the market.
 

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Well we don't know the details on what ICE manufacturers actually do other than some anecdotal information being provided by a highly biased individual.

My experience is consumers vote with their wallets. Tax incentives on Tesla are pretty much gone and people are still buying them because they feel they are getting a superior product for the money compared to other cars on the market.
There are not many Model Y's on local roads, so it is unclear how Y is ramping up in US/Tesla home turf.

Tesla store folks say next batches of Y are heading overseas, with a few canceled orders for immediate delivery, or at least 6-8 weeks wait.

The main market of new customers appears to be China, but as usual Tesla does not break down volume by market segments, so it is hard to tell.

From acoste's link of Model S/3 wheels falling off, and Munro saying Y starts to see improvement of assembly quality/design/practice, it appears prudent to at least go with Y(including trade S/3/X for Y if possible), or wait for next model.
 

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Swedish Murder Machine
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There are not many Model Y's on local roads, so it is unclear how Y is ramping up in US/Tesla home turf.

Tesla store folks say next batches of Y are heading overseas, with a few canceled orders for immediate delivery, or at least 6-8 weeks wait.

The main market of new customers appears to be China, but as usual Tesla does not break down volume by market segments, so it is hard to tell.

From acoste's link of Model S/3 wheels falling off, and Munro saying Y starts to see improvement of assembly quality/design/practice, it appears prudent to at least go with Y(including trade S/3/X for Y if possible), or wait for next model.
I will consider a Y when they have been in production for at least two years since Tesla always slips in a lot of revised parts in the first year or two of production.

Also likely won’t purchase until air suspension is available.

Model Y volume is low due to COVID lots of preorders still waiting on cars. You made similar claims about lack of demand on Model 3 a year ago when tax credits were expiring yet somehow Tesla selling every one they can build.
 

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You made similar claims about lack of demand on Model 3 a year ago when tax credits were expiring yet somehow Tesla selling every one they can build.
The prediction did materialize with Tesla Model 3 Jan/Feb 2019 US volume dropped to 6k, while China/Europe sales had not yet picked up at the time. :p

That was also a great time to double down on TSLA when it dropped 50%.:thumbup:
 
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