BimmerFest BMW Forum banner
1 - 7 of 7 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hi Everyone,

I am the owner of a 2015 BMW X5 35d. My sweet little car has been going strong for 137,000 miles without an issue, until recently. It was leaking coolant, for which it needed a $1,700 repair. The mechanic (not dealer mechanic) told me that this type of repair was normal for a car with this many miles. I told him I hoped to keep the car for 300k miles, is that reasonable? He sighed and said that I can be expecting some BIG repairs in the near future, mostly related to the exhaust system, most of which he said he would not be able to do and that I would need to go to the dealer. He complained of all of the parts now being made of plastic in BMW. Something about a $3,000 filter?!? I asked him if it was time to consider a new car, and he said "probably should start looking for one". :confused:

Does anyone have any idea of what he was talking about? How alarmed should I be? I did just get a recall notice for my car as well.

So, I go to look at the new X5 45e and the X7....now, both only come with a 3 yr/36,000 mile warranty... Um.... these cars are pricing out at 80-99k.... I would hope they would put a little more of a warranty on them! AND, I cant decide between the two if I were to buy a new BMW. PLUS, buying a new car these days is REALLY not fun! With crazy dealer mark-ups, and low inventories, and no chips...

I may custom order one, but 1 dealer said 2-3 months, the other said 4 months. I am betting it would be longer than that, but if anyone has had any experience with a custom order and it's timeframe, i would love to know.

Thanks so much!!!
 

·
Resident Curmudgeon
Joined
·
26,385 Posts
1. You paid $1700 and dont know what was done? Or what failed? God forbid it was just a leaking coolant overflow for which he overcharged you $1100.

2. This guy shoots from the hip, tells you this impending failure is 'dealer only'...then says 'go buy a car' so you start??

3. The 'exhaust thingy' is likely the DPF or Diesel Particulate Filter. You dont NEED to change it if it isnt full. But most USA based BMW mechanics not nothing about diesels. Anyone can do these, unless they dont know how- then they say 'dealer only'

You got 137k out of your car, and are concerned about warranty? Dont panic. You can buy an extended warranty if you DO buy new.

But I wouldnt buy new if it is solely due to 'impending' failures.



Its funny, people will spend $90k to avoid the possible future expense of $1000, 2000, even 5000. Its the unknown nature, the fear of not being in control...

Next issue you have, you should come here FIRST. You get a DPF warning and mechanics will be happy to extract $4500. So ask us first....Just have it reset, cleaned if necessary....

you get a CEL and the code says "nox sensor", it will cost $1000. And give you another 130k... the issues that might come up on a car with 137k arent the end of the world.

OTOH... if money is not a big deal and you just want a new car, go for it. However if you never ever want to have a car problem, it gets pretty expensive. Just think, if you bought a car every time it went out of warranty, you'd be on your THIRD.

;)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Thank you for the technical info. I will now know what to look for and how to approach it in the future.

I dug out the invoice and the $1,700 bill was for oil filter housing assembly, thermostat housing, cylinder head to rotator hose, connection flange, BMW coolant, a key battery, an O ring and 2 gaskets. Plus labor $700.

I guess i just want to have some idea of what I am looking at in terms of cost, hassle and reliability. I am a woman, I have had cars that have left me broken down on the side of the road several times with my kids (ahem, a brand new 2012 MBZ GL 350 Bluetech). I just dread the idea of being in that situation again, (even though that was a new car). Cars don't last forever, I guess I am just wondering how long until they are not worth fixing anymore. Can I safely get 300k miles out of my X5 without getting surprised with a $5,000-$10,000 bill one day and hopefully, without being broken down on the side of the road. I know, I need a crystal ball perhaps.

If I do decide to get a new car, I would buy an extended warranty, but I am not sure that they cover everything like they used to. (need more information).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,510 Posts
I had the oil filler housing gasket replaced at 70k miles.

The housing themselves are made from aluminum or maybe plastic on some BMW's. Looking on the Interwebs, it looks like BMW's gone back to aluminum after having trouble with the plastic ones. The plastic ones can crack or warp. A genuine BMW oil filter housing would be $350 to $500 depending on where you buy it.

Cars will last as long as you want, as long as you don't run out of: money, patience, spare parts, towing services, rental cars, and time. As cars get older, plastic, rubber (gaskets), and electrical parts start to fail first. Then, the mechanical parts start to fail.

I use my cars for long-distance, schedule-critical road trips. Because of this, I do a lot of preventative maintenance around 75k miles, and either sell them or relegate them to "local beater service" after 100k miles.

Having a spare car you can jump in makes owning a high-mileage car less of a disruption. A friend of mine did outside, local sales. He'd rack up a lot of miles, but he was paid the IRS mileage rate. I'd sell him my "long-distance, schedule-critical" cars at about 100k miles. He'd keep two cars. When one was in the shop, he'd drive the other one. If one broke down, it was a short flatbed ride to his favorite repair shop, and then a short ride back home to get the other car.

My first BMW rode the flatbed twice: a massive oil leak about 70k miles, and a bad ignition coil at about 113k miles. The oil leak was a fluke, and there was no way to see it coming. But, the bad ignition coil was expected. I now change the ignition coils at that 75k mile "refresh." I had to take my spare car (Chevy Cobalt) on a 200-mile trip because the AC went out in my BMW at about 90k miles. I once had to hunt down a gas cap for my BMW while on a trip at around 100k miles.

My service writer is amazed by my tolerance for big repair bills. I got that way be tracking the annual depreciation costs of my BMW's. My first BMW cost me about $7k in repairs and about $3k in deprecation in its twelfth year (~102k to ~112k miles). That sucked, but it was a lot better than the first year's deprecation on my second BMW, about $18k.

Your X5 is to the point where there could be some big repair bills in the future. The really big ones are transmission, xDrive transfer case, turbocharger, fuel pump, front axles, etc., etc., etc. If those breakdowns don't unacceptably disrupt your life, it still might be cheaper than buying a new X5 or X7.

New BMW's in the US come with 3 years/36k miles free-maintenance, but with a 4 year/50k mile warranty. Maintenance on modern cars is trivial: oil changes, filters and brake fluid (after three years (part of free maintenance) and then every three years). Diesel BMW's or M-B's are no more in the US, so spark plugs are needed at 50k or 55k miles.

On average, extended warranties are not worth the money. If they were, they'd lose money selling them. You'd always here about the guy who had a $20k engine replaced under an extended warranty. But, he's one is 10,000.

It looks like you're putting maybe 19k miles/year on a SUV. That means you probably rely a lot more on your car(s) than most people do. Also, leasing a BMW starts to make sense when you're driving more than 15k miles/year. The sweet spot for lease contracts is three-years, and they have 15k miles/year leases. BMW also has 30 and 42 month leases. There's an over-mileage charge but it's trivial, about $0.25/mile. At 50k or 55k miles, there would be some scheduled maintenance you'd be liable for, and you'd get likely get hit for a new set of tires if the tread depths are less than 4/32".

Now is the worst time to be buying or leasing a new car since probably 1946 (when there was four years of pent-up demand and very few new cars to be had). If you could nurse you old 2015 X5d along another year or two, you might be a candidate for leasing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,510 Posts
I try to make logical decisions on when to replace a car. I look up the KBB values of my cars on the anniversaries of their purchase, and I track my annual maintenance costs. I also consider interest costs, actual interest paid on a car loan and the "opportunity cost" (interest I would have earned if my equity in the car was in an account earning interest). I spent about half my life in Virginia which use to have very expensive personal property taxes on cars. Floriduh doesn't have personal property taxes on vehicles. I call the sum of these ownership costs "MDI&P" (maintenance, depreciation, interest, and property tax).

Floriduh does have a high sales tax, 6%, and that tax also applies to lease payments. A 6% discount on the capitalization cost of a leased BMW here is reasonable. So, the tax and the discount pretty much cancel each other out, and the estimated lease payment on BMW's lease estimator (based on MSRP) would be a reasonable assumption. From BMW's lease estimator, the lease payment on a 3 year/30k mile, no down payment lease of 2022 540i similar to my 2014 535i would be about $942/month.

Here's my actual costs for the first seven years and ~71k miles, and estimates of the 8th, 9th, and 10th years.

Font Line Material property Parallel Pattern



I've calculated the average monthly MDI&P for each anniversary year and the average monthly MDI&P since new. If the current year's monthly average MDI&P is less than the since-new average monthly MDI&P, I was money ahead by keeping the car that year.

My maintenance costs in the 7th year were huge, $8k, but half of that was due to pothole damage to the suspension. The 7th year's depreciation was unusually low due the car shortage due to COVID. My 7th year's average MDI&P was about $810/month. That was still better than the since-new average of $859/month.

The 8th anniversary year will be up in late-March. It looks like my car will actually have appreciated this anniversary year, and my maintenance cost will be on the order of $2500. That should give me an average MDI&P in the 8th year of about $30/month. This party will not go on forever, though. I expect my average MDI&P in the 9th and 10th years to be in the range of $400 to $500/month. After ten years, I expect my since-new average monthly MDI&P to be about $690/month. That's far less than the monthly lease payment of $942 and means I would save about $30k by owning my car over leasing three of them and starting the lease on a fourth one.

I wasn't money ahead by owning my car until early in the sixth year. Six years is about the average time a new car buyer keeps a car.

I could probably get my since-new average monthly MDI&P even lower if I kept the car longer than ten years and ~100k miles, but I wouldn't have the "schedule-critical road trip reliability" that I need.

Owning a long time makes sense for me due to my low average annual mileage of about 10k miles. Bump that annual mileage up to 19k miles, and the costs of leasing and owning would get a lot closer to each other. Leasing gives you that "schedule-critical road trip reliability" and eliminates a lot of aggravation that comes with maintaining a higher-mileage car, especially a BMW over 100k miles.

With an annual mileage of 19k miles, the option of having two cars is also worth looking at. It might be cost effective to buy a new one and keep the old one to reduce the annual mileage on the new one. The two-car option worked for me when I was driving 20k miles/year. My cheap beater, a Chevy Cobalt that I kept 15 years, allowed me to avoid putting another 125k miles on expensive BMW's.

Because of that trivial $0.25/mile over-mileage charge on leased BMW's, it wouldn't make any sense to lease a new BMW and keep the old one.
 

·
Nuclear engineer
02/2012 X5 35d M57Y CPO 121K miles NOKIAN WR G3 30K miles
Joined
·
24,008 Posts
@mfranklinvogelpohl I plan on keeping my X5 for the long haul, my last vehicle purchase I pray.

You must have a trustworthy and trusted adviser, and a trustworthy service agent.

Best wishes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ghpup

·
Resident Curmudgeon
Joined
·
26,385 Posts
M-

(I did figure out your circumstance- even though your username made it a challenge… ;) )

So lets break it down…there is ‘stranded’ and there is ‘fault and car needs service’

True strandings, of the ‘needs to be towed’ variety, even on a 100k-200k car is relatively rare. Yes a transmission or engine can grenade, and that will be over 10k. But that is very very very rare. (I’d also say a new car you buy today may in fact grenade the week after the warranty-even and extended warranty- ends. So after 100k you are on your own no matter what.

I think the odds of a surprise 10k bill is very low. But the odds of a few k a year isnt totally unexpected. But when you look at dropping 80k+ to avoid 2k a year over the next few….

Here’s the thing: would 10k ruin you or just be a major annoyance? Because the odds are low, but not zero. Probably 99% you will avoid that.

We have 5 vehicles, so if one has a problem I have the luxury of dealing with the issue on a non-emergent basis. DIY or even a shop, but I am not ‘stuck’ with having no choices. (”I towed it to the dealer and they called and said its $4900”….now what?). makes life easier.

My wife’s X5 D (2012) has 167k. Expect it will get to 250, unless she wants something newer. It is basically the “nice” horse vehicle. The other is an F250 for trailering. ;)

Finally, dont worry about extended warranty on a new car until YEARS AFTER you buy it. They will try and sell you now, no need. And also all the brochures and flyers and webpages dont show you the details you need. Start a new thread and ask for advice then….

GL
 
1 - 7 of 7 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top